19/05/2026
The Al-Qaeda affiliate Al-Shabaab has been advancing its positions in Somalia for more than a year now and has reversed most of the territorial gains made by the Somali Federal Government during its 2022–2023 counteroffensive.
Al-Shabaab launched its massive "Operation Ramadan" in February last year and has been on the move ever since, recapturing vast portions of south-central Somalia and now controls around 30% of Somalia’s territory.
By establishing a dominant strategic triangle in central Somalia (across Moqokori, Tardo, and Buq-Aqable), Al-Shabaab has effectively re-linked its northern and southern support zones for the first time in years, allowing them to sever government supply routes.
They are also getting closer to Mogadishu and have captured several villages and key choke points within 40 to 50 kilometers of the capital city. They can now disrupt arterial roads and easily launch vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs) into the city center.
In late 2025, an Al-Shabaab su***de squad successfully stormed a branch of the National Intelligence and Security Agency in Mogadishu, demonstrating their ability to hit heavily fortified strongholds of the federal government.
The Mogadishu government’s military forces have also been weakened recently due to the forced departure of the UAE’s military instructors under Saudi pressure, as Saudi Arabia weaponized its direct financial aid to the Mogadishu government by conditioning budget support on Somalia cutting ties with Abu Dhabi.
On January 12th this year, the Somali government passed a resolution annulling all security, defense, and maritime agreements with the UAE. This decision applied retroactively to federal institutions and all regional member states, ordering the immediate termination of UAE operations at the Gordon military camp as well as major commercial port hubs in Berbera, Bosaso, and Kismayo.
The UAE opened the General Gordon Military Training Camp in May 2015 as part of a multimillion-dollar commitment to rebuild the Somali National Army and launch tactical counter-offensives against Al-Shabaab. The camp serves as the premier installation for recruiting and screening elite cadets for the Somali National Army. Cadets undergo foundational assessment at General Gordon before being deployed to international partner installations in Uganda and Ethiopia for advanced tactical training, subsequently returning to the base as active-duty units.
The camp functioned as the nerve centre for Emirati and Bahraini officers tasked with rebuilding Somalia's security architecture
All three ports have ignored the federal government’s orders to cut ties with the UAE as they are located in the self-declared state of Somaliland (Berbera), the semi-autonomous state of Puntland (Bosaso), and the autonomous state of Jubaland (Kismayo).
The federal government in Mogadishu has no physical or military control over these areas, making it possible to keep the ports open and protect the UAE's investments.
The spat with the federal government about the ports’ future has seriously strained Puntland’s and Jubaland’s relations with Mogadishu, making security cooperation against Al-Shabaab even more difficult. With the increased territorial control by Al-Shabaab, the country’s already weak infrastructure is crumbling, with maintenance and repair works not being able to be carried out in vast swaths of territory.
The Islamist terrorist organization now has around 12 000 terrorists under arms and hopes to be able to launch more attacks on Mogadishu in the coming months.
