04/11/2025
At times, weather systems show a high degree of predictability. For instance, this particular system was one where I was able to forecast even the exact time it would make its impact. However, there are also instances when forecasts become highly complex and uncertain due to large divergences in model confidence. This usually happens during the southwest monsoon season, when predicting weather for Kashmir becomes particularly tricky.
Monsoon forecasting here is never simple, the region’s terrain and constantly changing weather patterns make it tough to get a clear picture. On the other hand, Western Disturbances are usually easier to track and predict with decent accuracy, given their well-defined synoptic structures and consistent trajectories across the mid-latitudes.
Winter, however, brings a different challenge. A change of just 1°C in temperature can decide whether it rains or snows. So, it’s not just about accurately estimating the temperature on the ground but we also need to understand what’s happening higher up in the atmosphere to figure out if we’ll get dry snow, wet snow, or rainfall (vertical temperature and humidity profile is important).
Despite technological advancements and improved model resolutions, I believe there remains a substantial gap in achieving forecast accuracy for Kashmir region. The unique topographical and climatic characteristics of this area continue to pose major forecasting challenges. Moreover, with the ongoing shifts in climatic patterns, these challenges are expected to intensify, demanding further research, calling for more localized data, better models, and improved observation systems.
