03/11/2025
Copilot:
You want to know who is speculating on gas prices on the stock exchange with very few trades, open gaps, and why the price keeps rising?
No, it’s not possible to know for sure who is speculating on gas prices, but we can identify the mechanisms and actors involved in speculation.
Here’s what we know:
🔍 Who speculates on gas prices?
- Financial investors: Hedge funds, investment banks, and other financial operators buy and sell gas futures contracts without the intention of receiving or delivering physical gas. Their goal is to profit from price fluctuations.
- Major energy traders: Companies like Glencore, Vitol, or Trafigura operate on a large scale in commodity markets and can influence prices through their buying and selling strategies.
- Stock market operators: Some actors exploit low liquidity at certain times to create price gaps—sudden jumps between a closing price and the next opening price—which can trigger panic or euphoria in the markets.
📈 Why does the price rise with few trades?
- Low liquidity: In times of low activity, even a few orders can significantly move the price. This makes the market more vulnerable to speculation.
- Leverage effect and expectations: If many speculators bet on rising prices, the value of futures increases, also influencing spot prices (for immediate delivery).
- Geopolitical and psychological factors: International tensions (such as wars or energy crises) fuel expectations of scarcity, prompting investors to buy in advance, driving up prices even without a real increase in demand.
🧩 The role of institutions
- The European Union introduced a price cap in 2022 to limit speculation but decided not to extend it in 2025, fearing market distortions. Italy expressed concerns about potential speculative maneuvers in the absence of this mechanism.
- Regulatory authorities like ESMA (European Securities and Markets Authority) monitor suspicious transactions, but the opacity of some OTC (over-the-counter) markets makes it difficult to identify individual speculators.
🧠 Conclusion
It’s not possible to know the exact names of those speculating, but signals can be observed: abnormal volatility, reduced trading, price gaps, and misalignment between real demand and prices. Transparency in energy markets remains a crucial challenge to avoid distortions that affect families and businesses.
