23/06/2026
Why this report, and why now.
On 22 June 2026, hours after UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer resigned over economic failure and broken promises, opposition leader Peter Obi publicly called on President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to resign over what he described as a "monumental failure in governance." Obi reminded Nigerians of a sharp irony: before 2015, Tinubu himself repeatedly demanded that President Goodluck Jonathan resign over insecurity and hardship — even invoking the Chibok kidnappings. Today, Obi argues, those very conditions are worse.
The Presidency dismissed the call as a "childish, unwarranted distraction."
This report examines that claim against the record. It rates the Tinubu administration across seven areas, compares it to the government that came before, and grades each. A note on honesty: the facts and figures below are verifiable. The conclusion — that a president should resign — is a political opinion, one shared by Obi and millions of Nigerians, but an opinion nonetheless. We present the evidence; you decide.
1. INSECURITY — Grade: F (2/10)
Tinubu campaigned on restoring security. The numbers tell a different story.
His government has poured roughly ₦19 trillion into security and defence in under three years, plus nearly ₦1 trillion a year in unaudited "security votes."
Yet only about 7% of the Army's 2025 equipment budget was actually released, and the Army received barely a quarter of its approved funds.
Mass killings and kidnappings have intensified — including reports of 279 kidnapped and 842 killed in May 2026 alone, "repentant" bandits returning to violence in Kaduna, and entire villages overrun in Zamfara.
Tinubu vs Buhari: Insecurity was already severe under Buhari, but kidnapping-for-ransom, banditry and rural massacres have spread to more states, not fewer. The most damning fact: Tinubu once said insecurity alone was reason enough for a president to quit.
2. THE ECONOMY & COST-OF-LIVING — Grade: D– (3/10)
The reforms were bold. The pain was historic.
On day one, fuel subsidy was scrapped; weeks later the naira was floated. Petrol moved from about ₦185 to over ₦900 per litre.
The naira collapsed from roughly ₦460/$ to over ₦1,500/$ — losing about four-fifths of its value.
Inflation peaked at 34.6% in late 2024 before moderating (after a controversial mid-2025 GDP/CPI rebasing that critics say flattered the figures).
Numbeo's 2025 survey ranked Nigeria the country with the lowest quality of life in the world.
Tinubu vs Buhari: Economists credit Tinubu with the most structurally significant reforms in Nigeria's democratic history — and the books are healthier (reserves up, FX backlog cleared, GDP growing ~3.4%). But the lived cost has been brutal, and by some accounts he became the most unpopular president in the nation's history.
3. HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX (HDI) — Grade: F (2/10)
Behind the macro numbers sits a human catastrophe.
The World Bank estimates Nigerians in poverty rose from about 104 million (2023) to 139 million (2025) — roughly 61% of the population.
Millions still lack access to clean water, sanitation and electricity.
Nigeria remains stuck in the UN's "low human development" category, with one of the world's largest populations in extreme poverty and recurring public-health failures (a 2026 Lassa fever outbreak hit a 25% fatality rate).
Tinubu vs Buhari: Poverty was rising under Buhari too — but the pace of impoverishment since 2023, driven by inflation and the naira shock, has been steeper than anything in recent memory.
4. THE DEBT EXPLOSION — Grade: F (2/10)
Total public debt rose from ₦87.38 trillion at Buhari's handover (May 2023) to ₦159.28 trillion by December 2025 — Tinubu added about ₦71.8 trillion, nearly 45% of the entire national debt, in two and a half years.
Debt servicing now consumes more than the combined budgets for education, health and defence.
Part of the rise reflects the naira's collapse inflating dollar debt, and the formalisation of old CBN loans — but the borrowing pace is far higher than under the previous government.
Tinubu vs Buhari: Buhari was himself heavily criticised for borrowing and CBN "Ways and Means." Tinubu has accelerated, not reversed, that trajectory.
5. CORRUPTION & LAWLESSNESS — Grade: D (3/10)
On Transparency International's 2025 Corruption Perceptions Index, Nigeria scored just 26/100 and ranked 142nd of 180 — slipping two places from 2024.
Nearly ₦1 trillion a year in security votes is spent off-budget and unaudited.
For the first time in 15 years, government withheld comprehensive budget-implementation reports.
Critics point to a hardening intolerance of dissent — the jailing of activist Omoyele Sowore at Kuje over a social-media post, and the crackdown on the protests.
Tinubu vs Buhari: Nigeria's corruption score has barely moved in years; the watchdogs say the rot is structural, not partisan. What has sharpened, critics argue, is the use of state power against critics.
6. CRONY CONTRACTS — Grade: D– (3/10)
The flagship Lagos–Calabar Coastal Highway — at an estimated ₦15.6 trillion / over $13 billion, the most expensive single project in Nigeria's history — was awarded to Hitech Construction, owned by Gilbert Chagoury, a longtime associate of the president.
Critics (including former VP Atiku Abubakar and civil-society groups) say it was awarded without open competitive bidding, violating the Public Procurement Act, and that the House of Representatives moved to investigate it.
The government's defence: Works Minister Dave Umahi insists it followed a legal "EPC+F" procurement route, received a Bureau of Public Procurement "No Objection," was approved by the Federal Executive Council, and that Tinubu personally recommended no company. "There is no corruption in it," he said.
The verdict: Even taking the government at its word, awarding the nation's costliest-ever project to a presidential ally without open bidding, during the worst cost-of-living crisis in memory, is exactly the kind of optics that erodes public trust.
7. BROKEN PROMISES & THE POWER FAILURE — Grade: F (2/10)
In 2023, Tinubu promised stable electricity, a war on corruption, and improved welfare — and told voters not to re-elect him if he failed.
Electricity supply remains unreliable, with national grid collapses persisting.
The anti-corruption needle has not moved (see Reason 5).
Welfare has gone backwards as poverty deepened (see Reason 3).
By his own 2023 standard, the promises are unmet.
In fairness — the government's defence
A complete picture must include the other side:
Real reforms: Economists call Tinubu's subsidy removal, FX unification and oil-sector reform the most significant in Nigeria's democratic history — long urged by the IMF and World Bank.
Improving indicators: GDP grew ~3.4% in Q1 2026, reserves climbed past $50 billion, a $7 billion FX backlog was cleared, and Moody's upgraded Nigeria (Caa1 → B3).
The pain is "transitional": Supporters argue the hardship is the unavoidable cost of fixing decades of distortion, and that the foundations are now healthier.
On the contract: The government insists due process was followed and no law was broken.
On the resignation call: The Presidency calls it a politically motivated distraction by a 2027 rival.
These points are real. Whether they outweigh the human cost is the heart of the debate.
The bottom line
The data shows a nation poorer, deeper in debt, less safe, and more unequal than the one Tinubu inherited — even as genuine, painful reforms reshape its economy. Peter Obi's challenge stands: the man who once said insecurity and hardship were grounds for a president to resign now governs over worse.
Whether he should resign is a matter of conviction. That the questions are valid is a matter of record.
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Sources: Transparency International (CPI 2025); World Bank poverty data; Nigeria DMO / debt office; National Bureau of Statistics; Numbeo Quality of Life 2025; Punch, Vanguard, Guardian, BusinessDay, Leadership reporting; BTI 2026 Nigeria Country Report. Figures current to June 2026. The call to resign is opinion/advocacy; all data points are verifiable.
