29/11/2025
HOW MUTHENDE’S SHOCKING VICTORY WILL RESHAPES MT KENYA POLITICS
What many expected to be an easy run for the united opposition in the Mbeere North by-election turned into a fierce political showdown. From insults to scandal allegations, the campaign was tense and unpredictable. Despite early assumptions that Leonard Leo Wa Muthende would be overwhelmed, he proved he is not a political lightweight.
The contest drew in national political giants, transforming a constituency by-election into a battleground for Mt Kenya influence. Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and Deputy President Prof. Kithure Kindiki camped in Mbeere North, each determined to demonstrate who truly holds the region’s political crown.
The two leaders, who have both laid claim to the Mt Kenya kingship, took their rivalry to the ground, using the by-election as a test of influence ahead of the 2027 General Election. For President William Samoei Ruto, Kindiki’s successful delivery of the seat adds weight to his image as a dependable lieutenant who can secure victories in hostile, competitive zones.
During an interview with Kîvîavîano Media & Consultancy and other local media in October, Gachagua told residents that he would only leave Mbeere when his candidate Newton Karish wins the by-election. “This by-election is not just about a seat. It is about bringing back the dignity of the people of Mt Kenya region,” Gachagua said.
Kindiki mounted an equally aggressive campaign. Speaking in Kanyuambora, he said, “Leadership must be about development, not noise. Am around and am not leaving here until Muthende wins. Muthende is the man to take Mbeere North forward,” Kindiki stated.
Beyond the national duel, local political forces also clashed. "Bus party" leader Lenny Kivuti and his DP counterpart Justin Muturi went head-to-head with Public Service Cabinet Secretary Geoffrey Rūkū and former MP Muriuki Njagagua for control of the Mbeere North vote. All four have previously served as MPs and understand the constituency’s political patterns intimately.
The race therefore became a battle between the old political establishment and a new generation of leaders seeking to stamp their authority in the region. For Muturi and Gachagua, the loss is a setback, raising questions about the strength and cohesion of the united opposition they have attempted to rally in Mt Kenya.
P.N Murimi, a political analyst in the area, said the by-election has reshaped the national political landscape. He noted that Muthende’s win has shifted Mt Kenya politics, boosting Kindiki’s influence significantly while putting into question Gachagua’s kingpin claim.
For Deputy President Kindiki, he says the by-election served as a decisive moment, reinforcing his stature as the political kingpin of Mt Kenya East.
"Kindiki has proved to be Mt Kenya East Kingpin, this region will not vote again on how Mt Kenya West votes," he said.
Further according to Murimi, Mbeere North by-election has firmly elevated CS Rūkū as the undisputed kingpin of the Mbeere community. His influence, strategy, and visible presence on the ground reshaped the political narrative, proving that UDA remains a formidable force in Mt Kenya despite earlier perceptions of dwindling support. He said the victory dismantled claims that the ruling party had lost grip in the region, instead showing renewed vibrancy and strong grassroots mobilisation.
He notes that the win also positioned Governor Cecily Mbarire, the UDA Chairperson, as a powerful political player with undeniable muscle over the united opposition. Her joint campaign efforts alongside Deputy President and CS Rūkū demonstrated a well-coordinated front that outmatched their rivals. He also said the outcome has placed Mt Kenya East in a strong negotiating position, countering Rigathi Gachagua’s earlier claims of a unified Mt Kenya political voice centred elsewhere.
"The victory has also boosted Governor Mbarire’s support base in Mbeere North and Mbeere South, where her influence was minimal. Being part of the core team that steered Wa Muthende’s win she has expanded her political capital and further defined the emerging power centres shaping Mt Kenya politics," said Murimi.
Mbeere North has long been known for closely fought elections. In 2007, Kivuti defeated J.B Muturi by about 700 votes. In 2013, Njagagua beat Muturi again by only 200 votes. The trend continued in 2017 when Njagagua defeated Ruku by 2,000 votes, and in 2022, Rūkū unseated Njagagua by 600 votes. In the latest by-election, Muthende edged out Karish by roughly 409 votes, maintaining the constituency’s tradition of razor-thin outcomes.
With Mūthende now declared winner, the focus shifts to what he will deliver. He takes office following a period of significant development under immediate former MP and now CS, and expectations are high that he will sustain and grow that progress. For Ruto, the win reinforces Kindiki’s growing stature as a reliable executor of the government’s political strategy.
The next General Election is just 15 months away and now the big question is whether Wa Mūthende will consolidate support quickly enough to secure a more comfortable victory in 2027. His narrow win shows both potential and vulnerability.
What remains clear is that the by-election has dramatically altered political dynamics in the region setting the stage for an intense race as the nation heads towards 2027.
OPINION BY DN MAKENGE
