The Ruling Class KE (2026)

03/10/2025

Opinion: Why the Baringo By-Election Could Define Ruto’s Political Future

By Correspondent

When KANU Chairman Gideon Moi officially announced his bid for the Baringo senatorial seat on Thursday October 2, 2025 ahead of the byelection slated for November 27, it set off political tremors far beyond the county’s borders.

To many, this is not just another by-election; it is the beginning of a high-stakes political duel between President William Ruto and the Moi dynasty; one that could redraw the map of Rift Valley politics and, by extension, reshape Kenya’s national trajectory.

Gideon Moi’s return and what it means

Gideon Moi, son of the late President Daniel arap Moi and a former Baringo Senator, is no stranger to politics. Yet, his return comes at a moment when Rift Valley politics are delicately balanced. For UDA, the ruling party, this race was expected to be a routine test of strength, with Vincent Chemitei flying the party’s flag against independent candidate Wakili Benjamin Chebon.

But Moi’s entry escalates the contest into something larger: a referendum on Ruto’s dominance in his own backyard. The symbolism is unmistakable; a Moi, once considered politically finished, standing toe-to-toe with the man widely hailed as Rift Valley’s current kingpin.

The stakes for President Ruto

The implications for President Ruto are enormous.

Old money and new networks: The Moi family, though politically quiet in recent years, retains deep financial muscle and a wide network of allies, both locally and nationally. If consolidated, these resources could embolden opposition forces and complicate Ruto’s path to a second term in 2027.

A divided Rift Valley: Already, Ruto’s hold on Mt Kenya has been weakened following the ouster of his former Deputy Rigathi Gachagua in 2024. A divided Rift Valley ahead of 2027 would leave him politically exposed, undermining the very foundation of his presidency.

Succession politics for 2032: The by-election also intersects with the ongoing scramble for Rift Valley kingpinship. Interior CS Kipchumba Murkomen is keen to consolidate Baringo, Elgeyo Marakwet, and West Pokot, while Senate Majority Leader Aaron Cheruiyot seeks dominance in the South Rift. Add to that figures like Senator Jackson Mandago (Uasin Gishu), Governor Stephen Sang (Nandi), and MP Johanna Ng’eno (Emurua Dikirr), and what you get is a volatile mix of competing ambitions. Baringo becomes the first battlefield for these internal UDA rivalries.

UDA’s credibility at stake: With Moi in the race, UDA will feel immense pressure to deliver a Chemitei win “at all costs.” That path, however, risks noisy, divisive campaigns that could undermine the credibility of the newly reconstituted IEBC in its first major test. If IEBC’s impartiality is questioned now, its ability to deliver a free and fair 2027 election could be fatally compromised.

A lesson from history

Kenya’s history teaches us that succession politics are a double-edged sword. They weaken regimes internally, embolden opposition forces, and in some tragic cases, expose emerging leaders to grave risks. The assassinations of Tom Mboya and JM Kariuki during Kenyatta’s presidency stand as stark reminders of how succession struggles can destabilize governments.

As UDA Party Nominated Member of National Assembly Hon. Bishop Emeritus Jackson Kosgei aptly observed in October 2023, “Succession politics are a dangerous distraction. They weaken governments from within, embolden the opposition from without, and often sacrifice individuals caught in the crossfire.”

What next for President Ruto?

For President Ruto, the calculus is clear: he has everything to lose if Gideon Moi mounts a serious campaign against UDA. Pragmatism, therefore, may demand a different approach — striking a deal with Moi rather than fighting him outright.

KANU may appear diminished, but it still commands respect as Kenya’s independence party and has networks stretching across Rift Valley and beyond. By co-opting Moi into his political fold, Ruto could neutralize kingpin politics, consolidate his backyard, and focus on the tougher national battles ahead — including retaining Mt Kenya support and countering the opposition’s renewed vigor.

More than a by-election

The Baringo by-election is, therefore, not merely about who becomes senator. It is about the future of Rift Valley politics, the survival of UDA as a cohesive movement, and the political longevity of President William Ruto.

If Ruto mishandles it, he risks not just losing a Senate seat but opening the gates of Rift Valley to opposition figures such as Kalonzo Musyoka and even the embattled Rigathi Gachagua. Worse still, he risks entering the 2027 election with a fractured base, weakened credibility, and emboldened rivals.

In short, Baringo is the canary in the coal mine for the Ruto presidency. Ignore it at your peril, mishandle it at your risk. History is watching, and so is 2027.

01/05/2025

OPINION: WILLIAM RUTO’S KINGPIN DOCTRINE — A CALCULATED BLUEPRINT FOR POWER, SUCCESSION, AND CONTROL
By Correspondent

History will record that William Samoei Ruto did not stumble into power. He studied it, mastered it, and eventually engineered it with precision. One of his boldest political strategies—both as Minister during Kibaki regime and later as Deputy President during Uhu-Ruto government, was his deliberate creation of regional kingpins, tailored to secure his hold on power, manage dissent, and shape a post-Ruto succession matrix centered on loyalty rather than legacy.

In the Rift Valley and Central Kenya—his two most critical constituencies in the lead-up to the 2022 General Election, Ruto adopted a quiet but strategic approach: neutralize traditional power brokers and replace them with young, loyal, politically agile operatives. These were not just surrogates. They were replicas of himself—cut from the same mold, drawn from modest backgrounds, and empowered with visibility, resources, and narrative.

THE THREE FACES OF RUTO: MURKOMEN, SANG AND CHERUIYOT

In 2013, Ruto backed Kipchumba Murkomen (Elgeyo Marakwet) and Joshua Sang (Nandi) to be among the youngest senators in Kenya’s history. By 2017, Murkomen remained in the Senate as a Majority Leader and extended his political longevity with a third term, while Sang transitioned to the Nandi governorship, securing a two-term stint in 2022. These two became Ruto’s first-born kingpins—moulded for the North Rift. Murkomen’s journey from constitutional lawyer to Roads CS and now Interior CS reflects both trust and long-term design. His visibility, wealth, and ability to speak across Kalenjin dialects – Pokot, Marakwet and Nandi, makes him a possible heir to Ruto’s mantle.

Then came Aaron Cheruiyot, the third-born in Ruto’s political dynasty. Handpicked to replace Charles Keter as Kericho Senator after the latter joined the Cabinet, Cheruiyot’s initial victory over Paul Sang—backed by Gideon Moi and KANU—was not just a win for Uhu-Ruto’s Jubilee Party but a signal to Moi’s legacy that the ground had shifted. Unbeknownst to many, Cheruiyot also shared business interests with one of Ruto’s daughters. His elevation to Senate Majority Leader and rise as the Kipsigis spokesperson sealed the South Rift chapter of Ruto’s kingpin trinity.

With Murkomen in the North Rift, Sang in Central Rift, and Cheruiyot in the South, the President had effectively reproduced himself in each Kalenjin sub-region—young, eloquent, fiercely loyal, and with ambitions nurtured in his political nursery.

SELF-MADE CHALLENGERS: MANDAGO AND NG’ENO CARVE THEIR OWN PATHS

However, not all strongmen in Rift Valley were Ruto’s design. The Ruling Class has leant that Jackson Mandago and Johanna Ng’eno have taken alternative paths—self-made kingpins who have often operated at the edges of Ruto’s inner circle.

Mandago, from Ruto’s own Uasin Gishu backyard, nearly lost his second term as governor to billionaire Buzeki, a man widely believed to have had the then Deputy President’s quiet support. Mandago’s surprising alliance with Raila Odinga in 2017 helped him survive, and from there, he grew bolder—no longer dependent on Ruto’s approval.

His famous “weka siasa kwa lungs” statement during the annual Turkana Cultural Festival in 2021, became a national catchphrase, propelling him into mainstream political relevance. After clinching the senatorial seat in 2022, Mandago began fashioning himself as a future power broker in the Rift—perhaps even a post-2032 presidential contender.

Johanna Ng’eno, on the other hand, comes from Narok, where the Kipsigis are a numerical minority. A shrewd political operator, Ng’eno has switched allegiances with the tides—KANU, Jubilee, and eventually UDA—always positioning himself as the voice of the minority Kipsigis in the Maa region. His real game, insiders believe, is to stake a claim to the larger Kipsigis vote, especially in Kericho and Bomet, where he sees an opportunity for regional consolidation.

NIXON KORIR: THE QUIET STRATEGIST BEHIND RUTO’S POLITICAL MACHINERY

Another critical yet often understated figure in Ruto’s inner circle is Nixon Korir, the current Principal Secretary for Lands, a former MP for Lang’ata, and one of Ruto’s longest-serving political protégés.

In 2016, Ruto publicly vowed to make him the first Kalenjin MP elected in Nairobi, a promise he delivered on in 2017. But Korir’s story with Ruto runs much deeper. He was mentored by the president during his university days, where he rose to become one of the most influential student leaders at the University of Nairobi in 2009/10.

Ruto later absorbed him into his ministerial office in the twilight years of the Kibaki government. A lawyer by training, Korir went on to become the Secretary-General of the URP Party in 2012, and later the Executive Director of Jubilee Party after the URP-TNA merger. Known in political circles as a master strategist, especially during elections, Nixon is seen as one of Ruto’s most trusted lieutenants behind the scenes.

Though he has gone quiet politically in recent years, insiders say this is by design. His current role at the Ministry of Lands—one of the most powerful and well-resourced dockets—offers him the opportunity to build a strategic resource base, a critical asset in the succession politics of 2032. His low-profile presence masks a calculated and long-term positioning, typical of Ruto’s inner circle.

While his roots straddle both Baringo and Nakuru counties, his influence extends well beyond — positioning him as a quiet but powerful architect in Ruto’s broader power equation.

FAILED PROJECTS: THE CHELUGUI-GACHAGUA MISCALCULATION

But not all of Ruto’s experiments bore fruit. Simon Chelugui and Rigathi Gachagua—once favored—are now considered failed kingpin projects.

In 2017, Ruto convinced Chelugui to abandon his gubernatorial bid and run for Senate in Baringo. The idea was to checkmate Gideon Moi and balance out the county’s volatile succession politics. Chelugui was rewarded with a Cabinet post under the Uhuru-Ruto regime and retained in Ruto’s first Cabinet. However, his aloof style, perceived arrogance, and loss of grassroots touch cost him dearly. By the time Gen Z protests swept through in 2024 and Ruto dismissed his Cabinet, Chelugui was expendable—with celebrations reported across Baringo.

His close ties to the impeached Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, who had fallen out of favor with Ruto, only deepened his isolation. The Chelugui experiment had run its course.

CENTRAL KENYA: DIVIDE, EMPOWER, CONQUER

In Central Kenya, Ruto’s strategy was even more radical. Facing resistance from former President Uhuru Kenyatta and his Jubilee Party, Ruto opted to split the mountain rather than climb it. Leaders like Nyeri Town MP Hon Ngunjiri Wambugu accused him of sowing division—and they weren’t entirely wrong.

He bypassed the old guard and handpicked younger, hungrier allies—Rigathi Gachagua (Nyeri), Ndindi Nyoro (Murang’a), Moses Kuria (Kiambu), Cecily Mbarire (Embu), Kimani Ichung’wah (Kiambu), Kithure Kindiki (Tharaka Nithi), Irungu Kang’ata, among others —giving them platforms, resources, and media access. These leaders didn’t just deliver votes in 2022; they built a counterweight to Uhuru’s grip and are now frontline soldiers in the Ruto succession project.

THE FORECAST: CRAFTING HIS LEGACY WITH CALCULATED PRECISION

President Ruto’s kingpin doctrine is neither accidental nor reactive. It’s a deeply calculated political blueprint—a strategy to ensure continuity, suppress opposition, and create a loyal second generation of power holders.

His method is surgical: identify talent, nurture loyalty, provide visibility, offer resources, and eliminate threats. The result? A web of young, regionally rooted leaders who owe their political lives to him—and are unlikely to challenge him without consequence.

As 2032 inches closer, the question won’t just be “Who will succeed William Ruto?” but rather: “Which of his kingpins will he anoint—and which will revolt?”

In Rift Valley and beyond, the future is already being scripted. And once again, William Ruto is holding the pen.

For feedback, slide to our inbox.

06/04/2025

BARINGO SENATE BY-ELECTION: IS THIS GIDEON MOI’S COMEBACK?

By Correspondent

For 17 years, the late Senator William Cheptumo was a towering figure in Baringo North politics. Known for his calm demeanor, grassroots approach, and a deceptively laid-back style, Cheptumo cultivated both fierce loyalty and stiff opposition in equal measure. His long reign was bolstered by a close-knit circle of allies—referred to by critics as “Navigators”—who discreetly monitored the political landscape and regularly briefed him, turning him into a masterful, if understated, political tactician.

His unexpected triumph in 2007 over State House insider John Lokorio shocked many. Lokorio, a seasoned bureaucrat with ties to former President Daniel Moi, was vanquished by a relatively unknown advocate—Cheptumo—who rode the ODM wave that swept through the Kalenjin Rift Valley at the time.

Fast forward to 2022, Cheptumo once again faced a formidable opponent: Senator Gideon Moi, the last-born son of Kenya’s second President. The face-off, seen as a battle between David and Goliath, ended with Cheptumo’s victory, marking the first major dent in the Moi dynasty’s long-held grip on Baringo. It was a strategic win for President William Ruto, who had long sought to uproot the Moi stronghold in the Rift Valley.

In 2017, then-Cabinet Secretary Simon Chelugui attempted to unseat Senator Moi with a well-funded, helicopter-powered campaign, only to fall short. He was later appointed to the Cabinet—an office he lost in 2024 following the Gen Z-led protests that forced a political shake-up.

THE ENDORSEMENT THAT NEVER WAS

At Senator Cheptumo’s funeral in Bartabwa on March 1, President Ruto was in attendance, but it was retired Bishop Zacharia Chirchir who stole the moment. His warning to the Cheptumo family not to be coerced into fronting a relative for the seat hinted at political tensions simmering beneath the surface. Expectations of an official endorsement from UDA’s top brass were met with silence.

With the nomination of Wakili Hannah Wendot Cheptumo into the executive as the Cabinet Secretary for Gender, Culture, the Arts, and Heritage, it is clear that the family of the late Senator is now out of the equation.

Now, barely two months after the Senator’s passing, the big question looms: Who will be Baringo’s next Senator?

A COUNTY THAT MATTERS

Baringo County, the birthplace of Kenya’s second and longest-serving President, remains a symbolic epicenter of Kenyan politics. Its political muscle was evident during the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) referendum, when it became the first county to reject the proposal—igniting a nationwide political showdown.

The upcoming by-election could serve as a “mock general election” ahead of 2027. With this in mind, many believe President Ruto—also UDA party leader—will move strategically to retain the seat and avoid a KANU resurgence.

THE RETURN OF GIDEON MOI?

Speculation is rife that KANU Chairman Gideon Moi may be eyeing a comeback. His recent appearance at the funeral of former Baringo North MP W***y Kamuren in Kabartonjo sparked excitement. The crowd welcomed him warmly, breaking into applause as his chopper landed. In his carefully worded speech, Moi dismissed reconciliation with the Kenya Kwanza regime but extended an olive branch to the people of Baringo—earning thunderous applause.

With rising discontent in the county over broken promises by the current government—including stalled road projects like Karandi-Mochongoi-Marigat and Kasoyo-Seretunin-Kampi Samaki—Moi’s candidacy could become a powerful protest vote.

However, some believe Moi may not risk a direct clash with President Ruto at this juncture, choosing instead to bide his time for a more favorable 2027 landscape.

RESURGENCE OF CHELUGUI

Enter former Cabinet Secretary Simon Chelugui, recently ejected from government following the Gen Z-led protests that brought down the entire Cabinet in July 2024.

Now, Chelugui is said to be recalibrating—and eyeing the Baringo Senate seat as his re-entry point. Quietly but determinedly, he is building a narrative: that Baringo’s people are tired of externally imposed leaders. His messaging resonates with voters wary of being used as pawns in larger power struggles.

Sources close to Chelugui suggest he’s not just running for the Senate seat—he’s trying to craft a third political force in Rift Valley politics. A middle ground between the Moi old guard and Ruto’s UDA juggernaut, aimed at placing himself squarely on the negotiation table ahead of the 2027 and even 2032 succession dynamics.

NEW PLAYERS, OLD GAMES

So far, two candidates have openly declared their interest, pending conclusion of IEBC constitution process..

One of them, Wycliffe Kipsang Tobole—a Kiswahili teacher at Sacho High School—has been on an aggressive campaign trail. A youthful orator with student leadership roots at Kenyatta University, Tobole has stirred curiosity by switching from a mini-SUV to a Land Cruiser Prado, complete with a bodyguard. Whispers suggest possible political backers.

Kericho Senator and Majority Leader Aaron Cheruiyot is believed to be fronting Dan Kiptoo, a UDA party official from Baringo Central based in Nairobi. Interior CS Kipchumba Murkomen is also said to be keenly watching the race, and any endorsement from his camp could significantly tip the scales.

Meanwhile, Baringo MCAs are scrambling to regroup after their attempt to front County Speaker Vincent Kemboi. However, sources intimate that the Speaker, aware of the stakes, rejected. The 45-member assembly is now back to the drawing board, shopping for a viable candidate.

THE SHADOW OF THE STATE

Nominated MP Bishop Jackson Kosgei, who previously contested the Senate seat in 2013 and 2022, is another name being floated. A close ally of the President, he served as Chair of the Kenya Film Classification Board in 2017 and maintains strong ties within the UDA ranks.

Other aspirants eyeing the UDA ticket include: Isaiah Kirukmet (former NHIF Manager), Silas Tochim (Director, Tourism Fund), Emmanuel Ngetuny (former Eldama Ravine MP aspirant), David Kipruto (Lawyer), Vincent Chemitei, and Felix Chelaite (Kenyan based in Australia).

THE FORECAST

The upcoming by-election in Baringo is more than just a political contest—it is a referendum on loyalty, legacy, and leadership. Whether Gideon Moi makes a political comeback or the UDA machinery consolidates its gains, one thing is certain: Baringo’s Senate seat is now a chessboard where the stakes go beyond the county lines.

- Power, Politics & Progress.

22/03/2025

INTRODUCING 'The Ruling Class' — A Podcast About Power, Politics & Progress featuring Kenya's political landscape.

Who really holds the power? How does politics shape our world? And what does progress actually look like?

Welcome to The Ruling Class—a bold new bi-weekly podcast breaking down the forces that govern our lives. From political shake-ups to power plays, we go beyond the headlines to uncover what’s really happening behind closed doors.

Plus, don’t miss our weekly political articles—sharp analysis, deep dives, and fresh perspectives on the biggest issues of our time.

Follow, subscribe, and join the conversation. The ruling class is talking—are you listening?

https://www.facebook.com/TheRulingClassKE

The Ruling Class KE

03/10/2025

01/05/2025

06/04/2025

22/03/2025

Address

Website

Alerts

Shortcuts

Share