Alvan Kinyua, CGP

16/08/2025

𝐍𝐚𝐢𝐫𝐨𝐛𝐢 𝐆𝐮𝐛𝐞𝐫𝐧𝐚𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐚𝐥 𝐑𝐚𝐜𝐞 ~ 𝐀𝐧 𝐀𝐧𝐚𝐥𝐲𝐬𝐢𝐬
𝐏𝐀𝐑𝐓 𝐓𝐇𝐑𝐄𝐄: 𝑫𝒆𝒏𝒏𝒊𝒔 𝑾𝒂𝒘𝒆𝒓𝒖

An accomplished investment banker, Dennis Waweru has also declared interest in the city's top job; the 2nd time he is doing so after his 2022 bid that he abandoned midway. Before his political career took a nosedive, he had served as the MP for Dagoretti South.

Waweru boasts of a rich profile in the banking industry having been in the field for over two decades. He has been instrumental in the various industry developments and at some point served as the Vice Chairman of the Kenya Association of Investment Banks and Stock Brokers (KASIB). In addition, he has played an important role in ensuring the implementation of various Exchange initiatives that have sustainably grown the Stock Market. Waweru is a Partner and Director of Faida Investment Bank. He holds an MBA in Strategic Management from Moi University and a Bachelor of Commerce Degree.

His proponents argue that Nairobi needs a manager not a politician and Waweru is the right man for that job. Seen a largely sober and composed, Waweru has propped himself as the sensible brain that will restore sanity in a city dominated by chaos in every corner. However, whereas Waweru's posture may appeal to middle and upper class Nairobians, it makes little sense to residents of the lower end, who are the majority, who care less about such optics and are more concerned about where the next meal will come from. Waweru's soft stature also makes his candidature feel lukewarm and colourless in a county where bravado and braggadocio carry the day.

Secondly, Waweru opines that the problems of Nairobi can only be solved by a person who was born and brought up there and he prides himself as a pure Nairobian. However, whereas this might be true, I highly doubt it will be a determining factor in the race to unseat incumbent Johnson Sakaja.

Thirdly, Waweru belongs to Jubilee Party and consequently, the larger umbrella of the opposition where there are several other candidates seeking the same job. Will it be easy for him to convince the other aspirants to drop their bids and support him? Only time will tell.

Yote tisa, Dennis Waweru's bid for Nairobi governorship is akin to that average, largely silent and barely visible company employee who seeks to fill a manager's position that has fallen vacant. He will need to work really hard to convince the appointing authority that he is better fit for the job than his more visible and outgoing colleagues. Otherwise, if he is not careful, Dennis Waweru might join the long list of career aspirants who only threaten to contest but never really put up serious bids.

© 𝗠𝗿 𝗖𝗵𝗿𝗼𝗻𝗶𝗰𝗹𝗲𝘀 𝗔𝗹𝘃𝗮𝗻 𝗞𝗶𝗻𝘆𝘂𝗮, 𝗖.𝗚.𝗣. 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟱

30/07/2025

30/07/2025

𝐍𝐚𝐢𝐫𝐨𝐛𝐢 𝐆𝐮𝐛𝐞𝐫𝐧𝐚𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐚𝐥 𝐑𝐚𝐜𝐞 ~ 𝐀𝐧 𝐀𝐧𝐚𝐥𝐲𝐬𝐢𝐬
𝐏𝐀𝐑𝐓 𝐓𝐖𝐎: 𝘽𝙖𝙗𝙪 𝙊𝙬𝙞𝙣𝙤

The latest entrant in the race to become the next city county boss, Babu Owino is one of the most interesting candidates to watch.

Born Paul Ongili in Nyalenda slums, Kisumu to a chang'aa selling mother, Babu's story is a tale of a poor man's son who began at the rock bottom, beat unimaginable odds at every stage, to become a national trendsetter.

An alumni of Kisumu Boys, Babu Owino boasts of an unmatched academic record. A holder of a First Class Honours bachelors degree in Acturial Science, another bachelors degree in Law and masters in Law, all from the prestigious University of Nairobi, Babu Owino is also an Advocate of The High Court of Kenya having been recently admitted to the bar after acquiring a Diploma in Law from the Kenya School of Law.

For a short, skinny and almost seemingly malnourished boy to rise from the lowest to become a four~times President of the prestigious Students Organization of Nairobi University(SONU) and then proceed to be elected twice as an MP in the city, all that in just 34 years of life, Babu Owino can only be either a crazy genius or a beneficiary of the most intricate political conspiracy hatched in the recent Kenyan history.

The Embakasi East legislator has now declared that nothing will stop his quest to unseat incumbent Johnson Sakaja. So, what are his chances?

To begin with, Babu is extremely lethal and calculative. Highly underrated, Babu Owino is a crazy schemer and dreamer, who formulates admirable strategies and then goes ahead to implement each to the letter. Even more interesting is that Babu is a damn good listener and team player, investing in the finest brains to refine his ideas.

Secondly, Babu Owino has a rare chance to mobilize the yet~to~be~taken Gen Z vote which could easily propel him to City Hall. The typically riotous and change~hungry youths are more likely to identify with the youthful ramble-rousing Babu than any other candidate. However, his razzmatazz and bravado~driven politicking has its downside too. The conservative and order~obsessed older generation in the city might not be too thrilled to have a politician of Babu calibre and character running Nairobi. He will therefore have to convince them that his tenure would not bring disruption which Boomers and their preceding generations detest.

And then, there is the resources question. City politics are no doubt money~driven. Babu is up against way much wealthier and established candidates and how he will be able to match their financial muscle, is a matter of wait and see.

Another critical issue is the political party factor. Babu Owino belongs to ODM. Therefore, if he runs with the orange party, an endorsement from his captain Raila Odinga or lack of it is a make or break scenario. So far, Babaman has been lukewarm on Babu's candidature. However, Babu has another option. He can decide to defy the sacred patronage the Odingas have had over Luo politicians and instead enter the battle independently. Definitely, this would be a risky gamble but one that could forever alter Kenyan politics if it were to succeed.

Whether Babu Owino's marriage to a Kikuyu wife will help appeal to Mountaineers in the capital is also another question only time can help unravel. Nairobi politics are never an outright ethnic arithmetic equation.

No doubt, Babu is extremely streetwise, a strength that will assist him in a big way when it comes to navigating Mathare, Mukuru, Kibra, Kawangware, Lucky Summer, Kariobangi, Baba Ndogo and other similar lower end locations of Nairobi where the real vote is. However, his street ways will no doubt be a challenge in his hunt for votes in uptown Nairobi where residents consider such as uncouth. He will therefore need to wear two different caps simultaneously to win the hearts of the two contrasting sides of the capital; that of a go~getting, chang'aa~selling Nyalenda slums widow's son while vote~hunting in Mukuru Kwa Njenga and that of an Actuarial Scientist/Advocate/Academic while campaigning in Kilimani.

Yote tisa, Babu's city governorship bid is akin to the traditional African story of a recently circumcised young man who goes out for a raid, succeeds in bringing home an unusually huge bounty, and is now demanding a seat at the coveted & highly influential elders table where the most critical village decisions are made. The opinion of the elders on the issue is split two ways; one faction wants the young man admitted to the table since the fortune he brought home is way much bigger than what most elders possess while the opposing faction claims that it is impossible to admit an unmarried man of such young age with no children, life experience and wisdom that comes with age as per the traditions. Will the young man be able to convince the opposing faction to change their minds or will he go ahead to spearhead a disruption that will reset the entire centuries~old admission procedure all together? Time. Time. Time.

© 𝗠𝗿 𝗖𝗵𝗿𝗼𝗻𝗶𝗰𝗹𝗲𝘀 𝗔𝗹𝘃𝗮𝗻 𝗞𝗶𝗻𝘆𝘂𝗮, 𝗖.𝗚.𝗣. 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟱

24/07/2025

𝐍𝐚𝐢𝐫𝐨𝐛𝐢 𝐆𝐮𝐛𝐞𝐫𝐧𝐚𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐚𝐥 𝐑𝐚𝐜𝐞 ~ 𝐀𝐧 𝐀𝐧𝐚𝐥𝐲𝐬𝐢𝐬
𝗣𝗔𝗥𝗧 𝗢𝗡𝗘: 𝑰𝒓𝒖𝒏𝒈𝒖 𝑵𝒚𝒂𝒌𝒆𝒓𝒂

At 43 years, the Murang'a born, Starehe Boys alumni is a man of no mean fete.

Irungu Nyakera did not just attend the prestigious Stanford University but also boasts of wide-ranging professional experience both in the private and private sector. Before coming to the limelight when former President Uhuru Kenyatta appointed him Transport, Infrastructure, Housing, and Urban Development Permanent Secretary in 2015, at the age of 33, making him the youngest PS ever, Nyakera had worked with major banking institutions such as Citigroup and NIC Bank. His career quickly took off, and by the age of 28, he had risen to the position of Managing Director at Equity Investment Bank.

Young, suave and remarkably exposed, Nyakera's life-path was always on an upward trajectory; but that was until he was fired from government in 2018 and consequently decided to try his hand in politics during the 2022 election.

His bid to become the 2nd governor of Murang'a county marked the beginning of a litany of political mistakes, stumbles, miscalculations and errors which have considerably injured his previously enviable progression trajectory. In that Murang'a gubernatorial race which he joined using his own Farmers Party, Nyakera polled a meagre 19,765 votes, emerging fourth in the contest.

He however appeared to have gotten a new lease of life when President William Ruto appointed him KEMSA chair in May 2023, a place he lasted for just one year before being moved to KICC in 2024 and then eventually getting fired in 2025.

And now Nyakera has once again decided to try elective politics, this time round running for Nairobi City County governorship in the 2027 elections. Fashioning himself as the man with the solutions to the problems bedeviling the capital city, Nyakera joins a list of several other candidates seeking to unseat incumbent Johnson Sakaja.

So, what are his chances in this race?

To begin with, Nyakera has his winning points. He is well educated, brilliant, youthful and with an impeccable record in both the public and private sector.

Nyakera is no doubt an inspiration to many young Nairobians, especially those from humble backgrounds who dream of changing their fortunes. His grass to grace story is a testimony that anyone can become successful.

However, Nyakera joins the Nairobi duel from a point of disadvantage.

To begin with, he is a completely new name in the intricate city politics with his identity yet to become even slightly familiar in the Mathare, Kawangware, Baba Ndogo, Majengo, Kibra, Mukuru and other similar corners of the city which really count when it comes to who becomes the next county chief. His name is only easily mentioned in the posh, red~carpeted and air~conditioned corridors of uptown Nairobi. Ask any random ten Nairobians from any of the lower end locations mentioned above to name four candidates running for Nairobi governor in 2027 and you will be lucky to have two people mention the name Irungu Nyakera.

Secondly, he is yet to shed off the Murang'a tag baggage he carries from his failed 2022 bid. The last time he was heard of, he was a candidate in Murang'a. He never served a notice sufficient enough to indicate he has since become a Nairobian. And when did he fold his rural~fashioned Farmers Party to join Rigathi Gachagua's D.C.P?

Thirdly, whereas his polished character is a positive attribute that can help bring the much desired order in the ever chaotic city, it is also a technical disadvantage in the dramatic, bravado~laden and at times violent scene that is Nairobi's vote~seeking and politicking circus. City politics are never for the blue~eyed boys. Nairobi is for the uncouth, unruly, undisplined, ruthless and callous. Even the once calm corporate guru that was Dr. Evans Kidero had to put his demeanor and PhD aside, fold his sleeves and dive right into the murky waters.

Fourthly, Nyakera must understand that he is up against very formidable and experienced city veterans who can easily obliterate him in a split second. The Sakajas, Babu Owinos and James Gakuyas of this city are the type you serious gauge before engaging.

Finally, Nyakera must desist the temptation to openly build his candidature on the tribal card, a mistake that he appears to already be making. That storyline of 'Kikuyus are majority in the city' took Fedinard Waititu to the political dustbin in 2013, all Kikuyu candidates in 2017 and Polycarp Igathe in 2022. Yes, Kikuyus might be the majority in Nairobi but it doesn't outrightly work the way some people imagine. Nyakera must learn from the mistakes of those before him.

Yote tisa, for Irungu Nyakera, it is a scenario of the hare getting into a contest against a cackle of hyenas. Here, only wit, proper calculation and tact can help the hare win the duel. Otherwise, the hyenas have all the technical advantages including deciding to devour the hare and serve it for dinner.

© 𝗠𝗿 𝗖𝗵𝗿𝗼𝗻𝗶𝗰𝗹𝗲𝘀 𝗔𝗹𝘃𝗮𝗻 𝗞𝗶𝗻𝘆𝘂𝗮, 𝗖.𝗚.𝗣. 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟱

24/07/2025

Where is Mr Ibu? .....

23/07/2025

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Nairobi 2027 Gubernatorial Race ..... An Analysis ......

02/06/2025

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟕 𝐎𝐩𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐈𝐧 𝐀 𝐍𝐮𝐭𝐬𝐡𝐞𝐥𝐥

Faction I ~ Rigathi Gachagua + Kalonzo Musyoka + Eugene Wamalwa with Kalonzo as the presidential candidate.

Faction II ~ Uhuru Kenyatta/Jubilee Party/Kenyatta Family/Kikuyu Oligarchs + Fred Matiang'i with Matiang'i as the flagbearer.

Faction III: Martha Karua and several other free but inconsequential atoms going it alone with Karua as candidate.

A possible fourth faction might emerge too.

© 𝗠𝗿 𝗖𝗵𝗿𝗼𝗻𝗶𝗰𝗹𝗲𝘀 𝗔𝗹𝘃𝗮𝗻 𝗞𝗶𝗻𝘆𝘂𝗮, 𝗖.𝗚.𝗣. 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟱

27/02/2025

THREE NOTES ON MY VILLAGE-MATE MAMA MARTHA KARUA

1. The day Martha Karua threatened and walked out on President Mwai Kibaki during the Grand Coalition Government, as Mzee was trying to fix this nation, is the day she magically lost her mojo. Reason? I also don't know. No attempt to resuscitate her politics has ever succeeded since then.

2. Having sat in her meetings during the build up for Limuru 3 early 2024, I can confirm as a matter of fact that she is damn brilliant. Away from the cameras which seem to stir the fiery character in her, Karua is gentle, calm and very good listener.

3. But it ends there. Ikifika kwa uchaguzi, ni k**a nyota yake ya elective politics ilimpotea in 2009. Even Uhuru Kenyatta tried to resurrect it in 2022, with the system, deep state, money and everything lakini ikakataa.

So, wale wanataka kufuata hio purple thing launched leo, it will perhaps be of help to have those facts in mind .... By the way, we come from the same village so its nothing personal. Just my thoughts.

27/02/2025

OF RAILA ODINGA'S MAGICAL MENTORSHIP ~ PRICELESS LESSON FOR MT KENYA

There is something Raila Odinga gets right with Luo politics which is perhaps the key to the longstanding and fanatical sway he has had on the people of that region. Unlike other regions, moreso Mt Kenya, where 'kinpins' emerge and then fade away just as fast as they came, Raila has held a tight grip on the Luo Nation since he took over in the early 90s.

Part of Raila's magic card is his very calculated, sustained, impactful and selfless mentorship of upcoming political talent from Luo Nyanza. The list is long and in the public domain. Almost 99% of top Nyanza politicians have gone through Raila's hands at one point or the other. But get me right. I am not saying his plan is not without its downside. Those upcoming Luo souls who decide to defy Babaman equal feel the wrath of his whip. He sinks them for good. James Orengo once tried that defiance in 2002 and he almost sank for good. But again, that is the nature of politics and powerplay.

Yet all said and done, Raila's mentorship plan has produced very solid results and has critical lessons for Mt Kenya top leaders. It is those political children of Babaman who have been his support system and sustained not just his grip on Luo Nyanza but also his revered national stature, keeping alive and solid the only political party that has dominated more than two elections since KANU faded away in 2002.

On the flipside, when it comes to the Mountain, the opposite is true. Serious mentorship is very scarce. Instead, most top leaders from Murima who have ascended to the top are not just terrible mentors but they also tend to crush every upcoming talent, including their sworn loyalists.

And folks, that is how Murima has finally found itself in the political desert. The political limbo you are seeing in Mt Kenya is an outcome of the mistake of zero mentorship, repeated over the years so that when the rest of the country finally woke up from political slumber, the chicken had finally come home to roost for a people with numbers, financial muscle and brains needed to remain at the top.

Take for example Rigathi Gachagua. Immediately he ascended to the deputypresidency, his first mission was to fight and ejecting every other Murima top person he found in government, accusing them of being Uhuru moles. But it did not take long for the results of that costly mistake to manifest. When Gachagua's turn on the chopping board came, there was no one to defend him. Mtu mwenye alikuwa anarudisha watu nyuma ya laini alijipata hata hayuko kwa laini kabisa. Even Mt Kenya MPs who have always defended their own when push comes to shove, did not want to hear anything about Gachagua. Each had a nasty tale to tell of how the man from Wamunyoro had become a bully and mishandled them immediately he was sworn in.

Going back to Babaman, everytime he gets into government, anaingianga na kikosi yote. He even brings some extras from other regions. Even some of Mt Kenya finest leaders have publicly confessed that it is the mentorship of Babaman that created them. Moses Kuria and Isaac Mwaura are classic examples.

You can take this to the bank. It will not take long before you see Kasmuel MacOure getting appointed into government.

So folks, in a nutshell, what am I saying? If Mt Kenya so called supremos dont take time to learn that critical mentorship lesson from Babaman, even that so called Wamunyoro hype will just be hot air.

© Mr Chronicles Alvan Kinyua, C.G.P. 2025

05/02/2025

USAID ShutDown ~ Sad End For Kenya’s Most Lucrative NGO Employer

Yaani that shutting up of USAID was real? Man, I thought it just one of those Donald Trump and Elon Musk jokes?

The effect of that move is monumental. Like here in Kenya, the substantial aid it gives aside, USAID has been the biggest and most lucrative employer in our NGO sector. During my university days at The UoN, the dream job of every Bachelors student who was doing Arts was to work for USAID.

I just cant imagine what will happen to that huge workforce USAID maintained. Biggest problem is, none of them saw it coming. I mean, who would have imagined we will wake up oned day and find USAID gone? It was one of the safest employers around.

But such is cruelty of life. One day you are comfortable with a big job, good six figure salary, organized your entire life up to retirement, then boom. Politics happen and all hell breaks loose. I just hope and pray for the best for those guys because it is not gonna be easy. Not at all.

Yote tisa, that is why I always laugh at that self aggrandized middle class who imagines politics is very far away from them because they have a well paying corporate or NGO job, a beautiful wife, a car and a house. Politics is life. Literary. President Moi taught us, ‘Siasa Mbaya, Maisha Mbaya.’ In a split second, the direction of the same politics you imagine is for poor folks can alter all that you imagine is untouchable, irreversibly!

© Mr Chronicles Alvan Kinyua, C.G.P. 2024

29/12/2024

GACHAGUA’S IMPEACHMENT REFLECTIONS: HON MWENGI MUTUSE EXPLOITS

In a TV interview earlier this week, Kibwezi West Constituency MP Mwengi Mutuse, the previously little~known legislator who shot to fame and made history in October 2024 after captaining the impeachment of former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, opined that his popularity ratings in Ukambani have gone up since he sent Gachagua home. According to Mutuse, in any village he visits in Machakos, Makueni and Kitui, people celebrate him as a patriot and a hero.

Well. Whereas Mutuse’s popularity claim may require more substantiation, one fact is not in contest; Mutuse accepting to lead the impeach was one genius political move. As other MPs chickened out of taking the front seat of what was clearly an extremely risky political gamble (impeachment of a Deputy President in Kenya looked like an impossibility), Mutuse saw a golden opportunity, grabbed it and ran away with it.

Before Gachagua’s impeachment, I can bet that 95% of Kenyans, myself included, did not know there existed a soul in the name of Mwengi Mutuse in our National Assembly. Fast forward December 2024, Mutuse is a household name across the country and beyond. Even an upcoming Kenyan teenager knows there is a man called Mutuse.

Whether the son of Kibwezi will now be able is able to convert that fame into real popularity or some tangible political capital is another story altogether. There is a whole load of strategy and communication work to be done around that.

But either way, you have to accept that by taking that risk which most other MPs could not dare touch, Mutuse played smart; and playing smart is always the ultimate political tactic.

© Mr Chronicles Alvan Kinyua, C.G.P. 2024