09/12/2025
If last year's trade‑show numbers and fresh market data are anything to go by, the contest between Kenya and South Africa in print, packaging and allied graphics is no longer about who's ahead today, but who's positioned to win the next decade.
South Africa: the continent's proven hub, now juggling maturity with cost pressures South Africa still accounts for roughly a third of the entire African packaging market, a commanding share that signals deep and established industrial capacity. Independent market research notes South Africa held 34.18% of the market in 2024, even as Africa's total market grows (Mordor Intelligence).
That footprint is reinforced by events and ecosystems that pulse with activity. In 2025, The GAPP Print Expo and Propak Africa drew 12,540 visitors—about 28% more than in 2022—underscoring strong industry engagement and a well‑oiled platform for innovation, networking and deal‑making (The GAPP).
Yet maturity comes with modern challenges. Beyond the ebb and flow of policy or global demand, South African converters now face rising energy costs even after some reprieve from the worst of load‑shedding. Research highlights that energy tariffs are climbing about 10% annually, pushing firms to pursue efficiency upgrades and smarter processes (Mordor Intelligence).
This pressure is both a constraint and a driver—fueling investments in waste‑heat recovery, ultrasonic sealing, and other efficiency technologies.On the innovation front, South Africa is not complacent. Academic‑industry efforts exploring bio‑based films, such as sugarcane‑derived bio‑PE, suggest a push toward circular and locally‑sourced materials—aligning with global sustainability expectations and potential regulatory shifts (Mordor Intelligence).
𝗞𝗲𝗻𝘆𝗮: 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗳𝗮𝘀𝘁‑𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗴𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗹𝗹𝗲𝗻𝗴𝗲𝗿, 𝗿𝗶𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗴𝗿𝗼𝘄𝘁𝗵 𝗶𝗻 𝗲‑𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗰𝗲, 𝗙𝗠𝗖𝗚 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗿𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲
Meanwhile, Kenya has quietly built momentum. Available figures peg the Kenyan packaging sector at around $585 million, growing at nearly 5% annually—impressive for a market still building scale (ProPak East Africa). This growth is not vague optimism; it's tied to concrete drivers such as a vibrant FMCG scene shaped by the 𝗸𝗮𝗱𝗼𝗴𝗼 economy, regional trade flows, and an expanding market for smaller, affordable pack sizes.
Crucially, research on the broader African market shows Kenya slated for one of the fastest growth rates in the region—about a 6% CAGR forecast—supported by its role as an East African hub for e‑commerce and modern retail expansion (Mordor Intelligence). Mordor Intelligence Nairobi and the broader ecosystem are capitalizing: flexographic printers are adding LED‑cure presses to boost uptime where grid reliability can be patchy, and the country's mobile‑money and retail growth story helps integrate packaging, barcoding and distribution in ways many markets envy.
Kenya's geographic position and regional networks also matter. Plastic and paper exports to neighboring countries, paired with a demand shift toward circular economy thinking, create a rich space for Kenyan converters and designers to expand beyond borders. The structural backbone—events, exhibitions, trade platforms—also supports this trajectory, giving local players access to global suppliers and regional partners.
𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗺𝗲𝗮𝗻𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗵𝗼𝗹𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘀, 𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗲𝗽𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗲𝘂𝗿𝘀, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗶𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀.
South Africa remains the laboratory and bellwether. Its scale, mature supply chains, and innovation labs mean new materials or process breakthroughs often show up there first. But rising operating costs and the need for efficiency mean players must stay nimble and tech‑savvy, not just big.
Kenya is the growth runway with increasing regional influence. A younger, fast‑growing market, with rising e‑commerce and FMCG footprints, offers more room for new entrants, niche packaging solutions, and cross‑border roll‑outs. It's attractive for investors who want growth rather than only sheer size.
Regional integration is the next frontier. Large African markets are not isolated islands; policies, cross‑border trade, and shared innovations are knitting hubs together. South Africa will keep exporting know‑how and technology; Kenya will keep exporting products, design skills, and quickly adoptable practices. The real winner will be whoever best blends capacity with adaptability.
𝗕𝗼𝘁𝘁𝗼𝗺 𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲: 𝗜𝗳 𝗦𝗼𝘂𝘁𝗵 𝗔𝗳𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮 𝗶𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗻𝘁'𝘀 𝗽𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿𝗵𝗼𝘂𝘀𝗲 𝗳𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆 𝗳𝗹𝗼𝗼𝗿, 𝗞𝗲𝗻𝘆𝗮 𝗶𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗿𝗮𝗽𝗶𝗱𝗹𝘆 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗮𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗵𝘂𝗯 𝗳𝗮𝗿𝗺—lean, hungry, and strategically placed to grow. The two don't just compete; they shape each other. And for those watching or working in graphics, printing, and packaging across Africa, that interplay is perhaps the most exciting story in the industry right now.
