09/12/2025
Uganda
Realistic Predictive Polls Point to Tight Race in Uganda’s 2026 Election
Staff Reporter
With Uganda heading to the polls in January 2026, emerging predictive models suggest a competitive contest between longtime incumbent President Yoweri Museveni and opposition leader Robert Kyagulanyi (Bobi Wine), setting the stage for what could become the country’s most watched election in years.
Although no new nationwide scientific polls have been publicly released, analysts have developed scenario-based projections using voter trends, 2021 election results, youth demographics, urban mobilisation, security incidents, and Afrobarometer data.
Most Likely Outcome: Museveni Narrowly Ahead
The baseline forecast suggests President Museveni retains a narrow lead, buoyed by the NRM’s national structures, state resources, and strong rural presence.
Projected outcome:
Museveni – 52%
Bobi Wine – 38%
Other candidates – 10% combined
Analysts say this outcome reflects continuity from the 2021 race, where Museveni secured 59% after a tense and highly contested vote.
Possible Upset: Youth Vote Could Push Bobi Wine Forward
A second scenario shows an opposition path to victory if turnout surges in urban centres and among young voters—groups that have rallied behind Bobi Wine over the past four years.
Projected outcome:
Bobi Wine – 49%
Museveni – 46%
Others – 5%
Observers note that Bobi Wine’s rallies continue to draw large crowds, despite restrictions and arrests affecting his campaign.
Alternative Scenario: Stronger Incumbent Win
A third scenario, considered less likely but still possible, outlines a stronger win for the incumbent if opposition mobilisation is disrupted or turnout falls.
Projected outcome:
Museveni – 60%
Bobi Wine – 32%
Others – 8%
This projection reflects concerns from civil society groups regarding limited campaign access, intimidation, and the potential for internet or communication restrictions on election day.
High Stakes for Uganda
The January 2026 election is viewed as a major test of Uganda’s political direction. Bobi Wine remains the strongest challenger Museveni has faced in decades, while the ruling NRM insists the country needs stability and continuity.
With momentum, demographic shifts, and tensions rising, analysts warn that the final outcome may depend heavily on voter turnout, access to polling stations, and the transparency of vote counting.
As election day approaches, both camps have intensified their nationwide campaigns—setting up a defining political showdown for Uganda’s future.
