01/03/2026
With bombs and missiles flying non-stop, it is impossible for any news organization to keep track of everything happening on the ground in Iran... so let’s look at the bigger picture.
(1) The Muslim World: It is now confirmed that Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei is dead. One thing is clear... the Muslim world is not rallying to Iran’s side. Once this conflict is over, there will be change in the Middle East. I fully expect both the Abraham Accords and the Gaza Board of Peace initiatives to gain renewed urgency. That region now knows that the US is calling the shots and that none of them want to cross Israel’s military capabilities.
(2) Russia and China: If you are Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, you are watching what is unfolding militarily and you fully understand that your nations currently cannot compete with the United States. While Russia still maintains the world’s largest nuclear arsenal, their conventional military forces just do not compare. Likewise, while China is quickly advancing in terms of technological advancement and quantity of military assets, they still lag behind. However, in order to maintain stability in Asia and support our allies like Japan, South Korea, etc., the US will have to change strategies and increase the mix of assets in theater... and this will require a significant increase in military investment... something Democrats will oppose.
(3) NATO and the EU: For decades, European leaders have placated Iran and have shown they do not have the backbone to actually “solve” global issues. Unlike Trump’s first term in office, this second term has seen the Europeans significantly tone down their criticisms of Trump and they have been reluctant to challenge him. When they do, Trump has swiftly put them in their place. Whether you like him or not, Donald Trump is a force of nature... a generational leader who is forcing Europe to do things they refused to do during prior US presidential administrations. .. things like committing to up their NATO contributions to 5% of GDP.
(4) The Rest of the World: In Central and South America, we are seeing a rise of conservative political leaders, while watching the socialist and communist leaning leaders moderate. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is on a mission to repair the relationship between the US and our southern neighbors, with a focus on bringing Cuba back into our orbit. These leaders are watching the decisive actions being taken by the Trump administration and are coming to the realization that they can no longer depend on Russia and China to prop them up. Panama is kicking China out of the Panama Canal... Mexico is beginning to get serious about dealing with the narco state operating within its borders. We are seeing the same type of things play out in Africa.
Trump has many options to wind down the Iranian operations. This may last days or weeks, but with the death of the Supreme Leader, there will be rising calls for this to end. In my opinion, it is vital for the US to finish the job... Iran’s military assets and manufacturing facilities must be destroyed to the point it is impossible for them to again threaten their neighbors and spread terror around the world.
