29/05/2025
FROM ADENAUER TO TINUBU: HOW NARROW VICTORIES CAN FORGE GREAT LEGACIES
By Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu
In the halls of modern political history, few leaders were as underestimated at the start and as celebrated at the end as Konrad Adenauer, the first Chancellor of post-war West Germany. Elected in 1949 by a razor-thin margin of just one vote, rumors swirled that he may have even cast the decisive vote for himself. His mandate was weak, his popularity uncertain, and Germany’s future hung in the balance.
Fast forward to Nigeria in 2023. Bola Ahmed Tinubu emerged President in a similarly contested fashion. His share of the national vote was under 40%, the lowest winning percentage in Nigeria’s Fourth Republic. The opposition was split- Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar divided the votes of disenchanted Nigerians seeking change. The result? Tinubu won not by a landslide, but by strategic calculation and coalition craftsmanship.
Predictably, allegations of electoral malpractice followed. Yet, like Adenauer, Tinubu weathered the legal storm. Nigeria’s Supreme Court ruled that while the election process had flaws, it did not breach the threshold for annulment.
But what unites Adenauer and Tinubu is not the narrowness of their victories or their septuagenarian rise to power, it is the scale of their ambitions.
Adenauer, though unpopular at first, led Germany into the Western alliance, laid the foundations for the European Union, and initiated the economic miracle that transformed his country. By the time of his re-election in 1953 and especially in 1957, he had won the trust of a once-cynical nation.
Tinubu’s journey seems to mirror this trajectory. In under two years, he has enacted bold and controversial reforms. The removal of fuel subsidies and the unification of Nigeria’s exchange rates, in his words, were necessary to “free the economic jugular of the nation.” Painful? Undoubtedly. But transformative? Increasingly so.
Government revenues have more than doubled. Nigeria’s $1.61 billion IMF debt has been cleared. Major infrastructure projects are in motion. Oil production is up. Youth empowerment schemes, student loans, and consumer credit initiatives have been launched. The NYSC allowance has been increased, and a new minimum wage of N70,000 has been signed into law. Notably, the revenue-to-debt service ratio has improved from a dangerous 97% to a more tolerable 68% _(source: Budget Office of the Federation, 2024)._
Still, like Adenauer’s Germany in the 1950s, Tinubu’s early economic success has come at a cost. Nigerians are grappling with inflation, a weakened naira, and a cost-of-living crisis that strains household budgets. The challenge is clear: to translate macroeconomic progress into everyday relief.
Adenauer bridged Germany’s transition with a robust Social Market Economy, combining free-market capitalism with social protections. Tinubu’s reforms including the Student Loan Act and targeted social interventions signal a similar approach. But more is needed: perhaps a constitutional or statutory *Social Code* to institutionalize social protections and ensure continuity.
At this crucial moment, it is important to urge Nigerians, especially those grinding under the current economic hardship to be a bit more patient and hopeful. Just as the German people endured Adenauer’s tough reforms and later became proud of their country’s economic revival, so too must Nigerians hold on. The difficulties faced today are not permanent; they are the birth pains of a new economic era. If Tinubu’s reforms stay on track, they will not only stabilize the economy but also create a magnet effect, drawing back many who have “japaed” abroad. These Nigerians will return not out of compulsion, but out of pride and renewed hope to join hands in building a Nigeria that is stronger, more prosperous, and destined to be among the new global superpowers in the not-too-distant future.
Remarkably, political momentum is shifting. Like Adenauer, once doubted and later revered, Tinubu is seeing opposition figures, including prominent politicians, endorsing his potential 2027 re-election bid. The ruling party is moving with urgency, buoyed by a sense that a second-term landslide may be within reach.
If this trajectory holds, if inflation is tamed, reforms deepen, and social programs scale, Tinubu could emerge not merely as a tactician who won narrowly, but as a reformer who transformed a nation that was once said to be on the brink of collapse.
Yet, much remains to be done. Poverty reduction, job creation, power supply and security are critical. Insecurity still haunts many regions and must be crushed decisively. The security architecture must be strengthened or overhauled where necessary to defeat insurgency, banditry, and criminality. And corruption, which undermines economic progress, must be fought with renewed political will and institutional strength.
Only then will Tinubu’s bold economic reforms translate into real peace, prosperity, and national renewal.
Leadership is not always about winning big. Sometimes, it's about doing big things after barely winning.
Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu is a lawyer, political analyst, senior pastor of the Redeemed Christian Church of God and former gubernatorial candidate in Edo State
Email: [email protected]
