26/06/2026
NiMet flagged erratic rainfall patterns and severe prolonged dry spells across the country. Rainfall is expected to be inconsistent in timing and distribution, with some areas experiencing early onset and others facing delayed rains. (TheCable)
Most parts of Nigeria are expected to receive normal annual rainfall, but above-normal rainfall is predicted for Enugu, Cross River, Abia, Ebonyi, and Akwa Ibom — the core cocoa belt in the South East and South South. Below-normal rainfall is expected in Katsina, Zamfara, Kwara, Oyo, and Ogun. (Voice of Nigeria)
The 2026 SCP is based on a projected weak La Niña and a neutral ENSO phase, with the overall forecast pointing to early to normal onset of the rainy season, normal to late cessation, and normal to above-normal rainfall and season duration. (Punch)
So for Nigerian cocoa farmers specifically — the southern growing zones are in the wet, high-disease-pressure camp this year. Good for tree growth, bad for Black Pod management if farmers aren't on top of it.
Côte d'Ivoire
This is the most volatile situation right now. Cocoa farmers in Ivory Coast are increasingly concerned that the 2026 mid-crop may be smaller than previously expected, as irregular and below-average rainfall has continued to affect several key producing regions. (CocoaIntel)
Weather conditions across West Africa recently shifted from a period of below-normal rainfall to a pattern of more adequate and widespread precipitation — but some Ivorian farmers remain apprehensive about rainfall consistency. (CocoaIntel)
The structural problem is deeper than just 2026. Côte d'Ivoire's annual production has declined from over 2 million tonnes a few years ago to around 1.6 million tonnes last season. (Farmforce)
Ghana
Below-average rainfall and persistent dryness in key producing regions of Ghana continue to build concerns. Farmers in several cocoa-growing areas report recent precipitation has been insufficient for optimal mid-crop development, particularly during a critical stage for bean filling and pod growth. (CocoaIntel)
Ghana's harvest, which once exceeded 1 million tonnes, declined to under 500,000 tonnes last season due to poor weather and disease — compounded by the spread of Cocoa Swollen Shoot Virus (CSSV). (Farmforce)
Cameroon
Cameroon is actually in a relatively better position climatically compared to Ivory Coast and Ghana. Long-term projections show a south-east to west gradient where Cameroon and Nigeria are expected to see higher yield increases compared to Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire. (ScienceDirect) Cameroon's cocoa belt shares similar rainfall dynamics with Cross River State — so what applies to Ajassor largely applies to the Southwest and South regions of Cameroon.
The Big Picture for Cocoa Markets
In 2024, human-caused climate change added six weeks worth of days above 32°C across 71% of cocoa-producing areas in Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Cameroon, and Nigeria. Such temperatures exceed the optimal range for cocoa trees. (Climate Central)
West African output is still projected to be down about 10% from normal levels for the 2025/26 season, with the supply base remaining fragile — one dry spell or disease outbreak could cause a sharp decline. (Farmforce)
What this means for you practically — Nigeria's cocoa zone, including Cross River, is one of the few places in West Africa where the weather story is relatively favorable this year. That's a competitive advantage that isn't being fully captured yet because of the quality and infrastructure gaps AFEX flagged. The farms that manage Black Pod well through this wet season and bring in quality beans will be selling into a tight global market. Worth keeping that in mind for your content angle too.
