KOGI Agenda Magazine

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18/10/2025

Recurring Skepticism: The Unending Cycle of Doubt Over Nigeria’s Electoral Umpires

By Stanley Ajileye

In Nigeria’s political history, few appointments attract as much scrutiny, suspicion, and controversy as that of the Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) — or its predecessors, the Federal Electoral Commission (FEDECO) and the National Electoral Commission (NEC). Since the return to civil rule in 1979, the pattern has been strikingly consistent: every new electoral chairman is accused of bias, political alignment, or hidden agenda, often before taking office.

This recurring skepticism—usually led by opposition voices and sections of civil society—has become a recurring decimal in Nigeria’s democratic evolution. During the FEDECO Years (1979–1983), Chief Michael Ani was appointed Chairman in preparation for the 1979 transition to civilian rule. Segments of the political class accused him of being too close to the military regime of General Olusegun Obasanjo, fearing FEDECO would tilt the process toward a preferred candidate.

*The Pattern Continues*

During the NEC era, Professor Humphrey Nwosu faced early doubts when he took charge in 1989. Despite conducting Nigeria’s freest and fairest election in 1993, suspicions lingered. In 1999, Justice Ephraim Akpata was appointed to oversee Nigeria’s return to democracy, facing similar accusations. Despite delivering the 1999 elections, his personal integrity remained untainted.

Professors Maurice Iwu, Attahiru Jega, and Mahmood Yakubu also faced challenges. Iwu faced backlash over alleged PDP loyalty, Jega was questioned for his northern origin, and Yakubu faced objections over possible APC alignment. Despite controversies, each contributed to Nigeria's electoral process.

*The Cycle of Distrust*

The latest appointment of Prof. Joash Amupitan has drawn similar allegations. Civil society and opposition voices appear to be operating from a predictable template of distrust. While vigilance is necessary, reflexive suspicion without evidence risks undermining institutions and morale. True democratic maturity demands measured scrutiny, not automatic suspicion. Until Nigeria breaks this cycle of cynicism, every new INEC chairman will remain trapped in inherited distrust.

18/10/2025

The African Democratic Congress: A House of Cards Waiting to Collapse?

By Pastor Stanley Ajileye

In the world of Nigerian politics, where allegiances are as fleeting as the wind, the African Democratic Congress (ADC) has emerged as a party of strange bedfellows. The marriage of convenience between politicians from different hues of the political spectrum has raised eyebrows, with many wondering if this unlikely alliance will hold or implode before the next election cycle.

At first glance, the ADC's formation seemed like a breath of fresh air, a potential powerhouse of opposition that could challenge the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). However, a closer look reveals a party driven by personal interests rather than a shared ideology or vision. The glue that holds them together is fragile, and the winds of discord are already whispering in the ears of these unlikely bedfellows.

The ADC's leadership, currently embroiled in a court battle, seems more focused on power struggles than building a robust opposition. David Mark and Rauf Aregbesola's recognition as the party's leaders has been challenged, and the internal squabbles are already making headlines. This is not exactly the foundation one would hope for when building a party meant to challenge the APC's dominance.

Meanwhile, rumors are swirling about new parties brewing within the opposition, potentially poaching members from the ADC. It's a case of "before they even take off, they're already crashing." The implications are ominous: a fractured opposition, a weakened voice against the ruling party, and the very real possibility of Nigeria sliding into a one-party state.

My own unfortunate party, the People's Democratic Party (PDP), once a formidable force, seems to be on its last legs. The party's internal crises have left it three-quarters dead, with the remaining quarter in a coma, being nursed back to life by a dwindling group of stalwarts. I've worked with passion, having served various times in its Gubernatorial Media Committee in four different elections and on the National Media team in the last presidential bid of Mr. Abubakar Atiku. Those of us who remain in the party know we're operating in a challenging environment.

The PDP's fate is a cautionary tale for the ADC, a reminder of what happens when personal interests trump collective purpose. As Nigeria hurtles towards the 2027 elections, one wonders if the opposition will regroup and mount a credible challenge to the APC. The deal between President Tinubu and Mr. Wike, rumored to be in the works, may yet hit the rocks between 2030 and 2031, potentially breathing new life into the PDP's dying embers. Until then, the ADC's implosion and the PDP's slow march to oblivion seem set to continue.

In the end, Nigeria's democracy might just become the biggest casualty of this political brinkmanship. As the saying goes, "those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it." Will the ADC and PDP learn from their mistakes, or will they continue down the path of self-destruction? Only time will tell.

As the political landscape shifts, one thing is clear: Nigeria's opposition parties need to rethink their strategies and find a way to unite against the ruling APC. The alternative is too dire to contemplate – a one-party state where the voices of the people are silenced, and the government reigns supreme. The ADC's fate serves as a warning: when personal interests trump collective purpose, the result is often chaos and irrelevance.

As the 2027 elections loom, Nigeria's politicians would do well to remember that their actions will shape the future of the country. The African Democratic Congress's future hangs in the balance, a house of cards waiting to collapse under the weight of its own contradictions.

There are ominous signals that President Tinubu's former adviser, Dr. Aliyu Audu, is trying to create an alternative to the APC. Audu recently submitted a formal registration request to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to register a new party called the African Renaissance Congress (ARC). This move is seen as a potential challenge to the APC in the 2027 election. Additionally, there's another group led by anti-Tinubu coalition members, including Atiku Abubakar, Rotimi Amaechi, and Nasir El-Rufai, who are seeking to register the All Democratic Alliance (ADA) party. These developments might indicate a shifting landscape in Nigerian politics.

When opposition is fragmented, they become a collection of earthworms, waiting only for a pinch of salt to knock them together into lifelessness. As the party's internal struggles play out, Nigerians can only hope that the ADC will find a way to overcome its differences and present a united front against the APC. Otherwise, the country's democracy might just become the latest casualty of political ambition and greed.

As for my party, the PDP, the party will remain in the refrigerator until things fall apart between Wike and Tinubu. I see it coming. after the 2027.
For me, and other who hate jumping from party to party, we will remain inside this dead shell, until a real opposition, that is based on refined ideology is born.

Ajileye Stanley is a clergy, political activist, and media/political relations consultant.

18/10/2025

*The Ideological Bankruptcy of Nigerian Politics and the March Towards a One-Party State.*

By Pastor Stanley Ajileye

By all visible indicators, party politics in Nigeria has devolved into a theatrical performance where the actors keep changing roles, costumes, and even scripts—depending not on ideology or conviction, but on the aroma of proximity to power and the promise of "stomach infrastructure." In a saner clime, political parties are ideological platforms—vehicles for philosophical doctrines and national visions. In Nigeria, they are more akin to commercial buses: hop in, hop out, no destination in mind, just make sure the fuel tank is filled with federal appointments and contracts.

It is no longer surprising—nor scandalous—that a politician who was yesterday denouncing Party A as a cabal of corrupt charlatans, is today their chief spokesman, singing praises louder than a Pentecostal choir on a revival night. It would be hilarious if it weren’t so tragic.

Let us be brutally honest: ideology is dead in Nigerian politics. In fact, one might argue that it was never truly born. Political parties in Nigeria rarely rise from a foundation of belief systems or public service philosophy; instead, they are cobbled together by disgruntled political gladiators seeking new platforms to repackage their ambitions. The result is a political culture of convenience, not conviction.

Compare this with functioning democracies around the world. In the United States, you may not agree with the Republicans or the Democrats, but at least you know what they stand for. The Republicans lean conservative—pro-business, religious, and traditional—while the Democrats champion progressive causes, social welfare, and minority rights. In the United Kingdom, the Labour Party promotes democratic socialism and workers’ rights, while the Conservative Party—aptly nicknamed the Tories—advocates for free-market policies and small government. In Germany, the Greens are synonymous with environmentalism, while the Christian Democrats (CDU) espouse center-right values.

Now contrast that with Nigeria, where the ideological difference between Party A and Party B is the difference between Coke and Pepsi—same sugar, different label.

Take a trip down memory lane, and you’ll find that our most prominent political figures have changed parties more times than a chameleon on a chessboard. A senator can start the week in PDP, spend Wednesday in APC, attend Friday prayers with the NNPP, and return to PDP by Sunday for thanksgiving. It is not political evolution; it is Darwinism in reverse.

This party promiscuity has hollowed out the integrity of Nigeria’s multiparty democracy. When politicians see parties as mere vessels for electoral access, and not as ideological homes, then politics becomes a game of personal ambition, not national vision.

Enter the current administration, which appears to be the grand conductor of Nigeria’s gradual waltz into a one-party state. With the power of incumbency wielded like a bludgeon, opposition voices are being neutralized not by superior arguments or policy alternatives, but through coercion, defection-buying, and weaponized anti-corruption crusades.

The ruling party has mastered the art of absorbing opposition figures like a political black hole. The message is clear: "If you can’t beat us, defect to us—and we’ll forgive everything." It's almost ecclesiastical—baptism by defection.

This unchecked consolidation of power is not democracy; it is authoritarianism in agbada.

When party politics lacks ideological backbone, governance becomes a buffet of impulsive policies, ill-digested reforms, and vendetta-driven politics. There is no continuity, no direction, and certainly no accountability. The electorate, having no ideological compass, votes based on ethnicity, religion, and the size of the rice bag delivered during election season.

Worse still, if the trend continues, Nigeria could find itself in a pseudo-democracy: elections will still be held, candidates will still campaign, but the outcome will always be predictable, because the opposition would have been swallowed or silenced.

This is not merely unhealthy for democracy; it is a terminal illness.

Nigeria needs a radical restructuring of its political culture. Political parties must return to the drawing board and define their ideological identities. Citizens must demand ideological clarity from parties and their candidates. And the electoral umpire—INEC—must enforce internal party democracy and prevent the political system from becoming a game of musical chairs.

In the absence of ideology, politics becomes a hustle. And Nigeria, I daresay, deserves more than a hustler’s dream.

Until then, we’ll continue to see politicians who change parties more frequently than they change tailors, and parties that look less like institutions and more like political rehab centers for the power-hungry.

But hey, at least they’re consistent—in their inconsistency.

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