17/05/2025
EURUSD ANALYSIS
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The EUR/USD chart you provided is a 4-hour (H4) timeframe, and it shows several important technical tools and patterns. Here's a comprehensive analysis based on the chart elements:
🔍 Chart Patterns Identified:
1. Falling Wedge Pattern (Bullish Reversal)
The converging black trendlines (downward sloping) form a falling wedge.
This pattern often signals a potential bullish breakout.
The price is currently testing the upper trendline of the wedge, indicating a possible breakout scenario.
📐 Fibonacci Retracement Levels
Applied from the swing low in late March to the peak in mid-April:
50.0% Level: ~1.1162 (marked with a purple horizontal line, and current price is hovering here)
61.8% Level: ~1.1130
75% Level: ~1.1059
100% Level: ~1.0942
These levels act as support zones if price continues to drop.
🔴 Previous Uptrend (Red Trendline)
Shows a strong bullish move leading to the high around 1.1572.
Now being corrected as the price moves in a falling wedge, testing retracement levels.
⚔️ Decision Zone
Price is hovering around the 50% Fibonacci level (1.1162) and wedge resistance.
Two arrows on the chart show possible break scenarios:
Bullish breakout: Above the wedge resistance could push price toward 1.1572 (previous high).
Bearish continuation: Rejection here could drag price to 61.8% (1.1130), 75% (1.1059), or even 100% (1.0942) retracement.
🧭 Key Levels to Watch
Resistance: 1.1270 (near wedge top), then 1.1572 (swing high).
Support: 1.1162 (current), 1.1130, 1.1059, and 1.0942.
✅ Conclusion and Scenarios
📈 Bullish Scenario:
Breakout above wedge + retest = entry signal.
Target: 1.1270, then 1.1572.
Confluence: Falling wedge pattern, current price at 50% Fib (potential reversal zone).
📉 Bearish Scenario:
Failure to break above the wedge → drop below 1.1162.
Watch for break and close below 1.1130 and 1.1059.
Final target could be the 100% retracement at 1.0942.
🔄 Trading Tip:
Wait for confirmation breakout (candle close beyond wedge and/or key Fib level) before entering any trade. Use stop-loss based on the structure (below recent swing low or high).
EURUSD ANALYSIS(SIGNAL)I
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