26/11/2025
We’re nearly at the end of 2025. While the New Zealand property market isn’t booming, it’s no longer falling fast either.
In fact, it’s now being actively stimulated: interest rates have dropped, house prices are steadying, and more people, especially first home buyers and upgraders, are starting to get active again.
2 Major News Stories Driving the Market
There are two breaking shifts happening right now that you need to know about. One comes from the regulator (RBNZ), and the other comes from the banks. Together, they have opened a window of opportunity we haven't seen in years.
NEWS #1: RBNZ Changes RIL Guidelines (The Gatekeeper)
The Reserve Bank (RBNZ) has officially loosened the "speed limits" on high-LVR lending.
1. Banks were previously more strictly limited in how many investment loans they could approve with less than a 30-35% deposit. It was almost impossible to get an exception.
2. Now the RBNZ has doubled the allowable quota for high-LVR lending.
Major Bank has immediately used this new capacity to launch a 15% Deposit product for Investors.
* You can now borrow up to 85% on a rental purchase (as of 20 November 2025).
* For the last 3 years, most investors needed a massive 35% deposit to buy. That barrier has just been cut in half.
NEWS #2: Banks Offer 1.5% Cashback (The Incentive)
Banks are currently offering 1.5% Cashback on new lending (capped at $25k with some lenders).
*The Math: On a $1M loan, the bank will pay you $15,000 cash on settlement.
*While cashback is common, this level of aggression is new. Banks are matching each other dollar-for-dollar because they are desperate to lend.
The Big Picture: Why is this happening?
*The "Money on the Shelf" Problem. Simply put: There is a lot of money sitting on the shelf collecting dust. Kiwis aren’t spending like they were three years ago. Instead, we are keeping repayments high and paying down principal.
*The Economic Nudge. When spending slows and immigration is weak, the economy risks stalling. If money stops moving, businesses hurt and unemployment stays high.
*Stimulate Real Estate Debt. To kickstart this process, they aren't just waiting for you to borrow; they are paying you to do it.
The Bottom Line: The regulator has lowered the barrier to entry (15% deposit), and the banks are paying you to walk through the door ($15k cashback).
2023 vs. 2025 Borrowing Capacity has Skyrocketed
2023: $300,000
2025: $546,000
For the same client profile
We’ve seen a high volume of transactions lately and this where we’re seeing growth and value.
Refinances:
Blueprint clients are keeping repayments the same and shaving years off their loans. Average reductions are around 5 years. Some clients are shaving up to 11 years by using savings to create large offsets on an interest-only basis and increasing fixed repayments.
Selling & buying better:
Clients who have owned real estate from 2020 (start of COVID) or earlier, with increased repayments and low balances, are now swapping their cross lease homes for better freehold properties. On average, they are increasing their mortgage by $100K to $200K using capital gains, as interest rates are in the 4.5 percent range.
Investment properties:
Most of our clients in main centres (Auckland, Queenstown, Wellington, Christchurch) are buying regional properties with 6% - 9.5% + yields. Some clients are buying stand alone multi income new builds in Christchurch. We are very rarely seeing 2 to 3 bedroom townhouses in main centres being purchased. There is excess stock at the moment, but some clients have picked up 3 bedroom townhouses for as little as $510K in Auckland, built in 2022, as developers are being pushed by funders to repay debt.
Better mortgage structuring across the board:
In previous years, people would pay the minimum, but since the post COVID19 shake up, more are considering using their savings to set up revolving credits while also increasing fixed repayments.
Bank policies to their advantage:
We have a select few clients choosing 10 years interest only. This suits those who are good savers and who traditionally make lump sum payments, as they prefer minimum repayments for better cashflow rather than increased repayments. Those who are increasing repayments understand that this approach works best for them. Don’t see the money, don’t spend the money.
Selling to go to Australia and buying a small cashflow neutral investment:
Sadly, some of the greatest minds see Australia as the greener land but are not ready to forego the long term value of property in NZ. They are selling the family home, separating out the deposit, and buying an investment property that washes its own face, while taking the rest of the net proceeds to consider buying a family home in Australia.
Separating securities:
This is common for investors with 4 to 5 properties that have equity. They are not ready to buy again, but they want the banks to release their grip on the existing properties. They are refinancing and structuring repayments to their advantage, making one or two properties freehold so they can sell with no one between them and the money, or using those properties to start flipping houses through non bank short term lending.
Mortgage Rates: Is this the Bottom or a False Bottom?
Borrowing is getting cheaper. Mortgage rates today are lower than they were this time last year.
The numbers:
*1-year fixed mortgage rates: Now around 4.45%
*Some banks offering 3.99% for First Home Buyers
*Early 2024: Rates were above 7%
What's coming: The Reserve Bank reviews the OCR on 26 November. Many expect a 0.25 percent drop or more. If that happens, rates could fall again.
The data from now until Christmas will shape what happens next. Inflation, unemployment and consumer spending will determine if the OCR continues falling or stays put.
In simple terms: Mortgage rates have dropped heavily and could drop further. If you are fixing a new loan or refixing soon, the outlook is in your favour. You can keep repayments the same to hit more principal, or take lower repayments to improve cashflow.
House Prices: Quiet but Stabilising
House prices across the country have stayed mostly the same for the past year. There were two small rises followed by small dips. Think of a seesaw that is trying to balance.
The numbers:
*National house values are down 0.93% this year
*Still 13% lower than the 2022 peak
*But still 24% higher than pre-COVID (March 2020)
In October:
*12 of 17 regions saw small price increases
*Auckland: -0.02% (basically flat)
*Canterbury: +0.37%
*Gisborne: +1.17% (the best performer)
In simple terms: House prices are steady. Not jumping, not crashing. Some regions are showing early signs of improvement.
Auckland & the North: A Mixed Bag
Auckland’s overall prices have barely moved this year, but not all parts of Auckland are the same.
The numbers:
*Central Auckland and Waitakere are a bit weaker
*Rodney and Franklin (outer suburbs) are doing better
*Northland is flat but stable
Mortgagee sales (bank-forced sales):
*Increasing in Auckland but far from crisis levels
*Most banks are working hard with clients before forcing a sale
In simple terms: Some Auckland suburbs are holding up better than others. If you're buying, there may be value in the outer areas.
Things Shaping the Market
Migration:
*Net migration is very low at 10,600
*74,000 Kiwis left the country this year
*International students are returning and helping rental demand in Auckland and Dunedin
Unemployment & Jobs:
*Unemployment is at 5.3%
*Government job cuts hit Wellington and Palmerston North hardest
*Job ads are now increasing again which is an early sign of improvement
Regulation Changes
*From 1 December, banks can approve more high LVR loans
*Fast-tracked building approvals are being trialled
*Auckland’s new housing plan (Plan Change 120) focuses development around train lines, buses, and town centres - not just everywhere
In simple terms: The rules are changing to make buying and building homes easier.
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