05/12/2024
New ferries: a literal train wreck slowly unfolding in front of our eyes.
The final chapter in the beleaguered iReX project will likely be written by Monday. Based on Mr Luxton’s answers to Mr Hosking, and the ineffective questions replied to with vague/non-committal/submissive answers in the select committee meeting yesterday, I’d wager that the new ferries:
* won’t be fitted with rails
* will be "cheap" (less likely, secondhand). Hopefully of better quality and design than that set by the DL loco's low benchmark, and hopefully fit for purpose in that a Toyota Corolla fitted with waterwings crossing Cook Strait on all but the (rare) calmest days wouldn't be, but we shall see.
* will likely cost twenty dollars less than $550m (in order to justify the cancellation of the previous contract).
* will likely involve some form of opaque financial engineering regarding procurement and ownership (or non-ownership) of the boats. This will save cash in the short term, making it seem like a genius business play, but burden KiwiRail with lease/financing costs for these pups long into the future.
* will be accompanied by minimalist portside patchups.
* whole of life project costs over 30 years will be far, far greater (including contract cancelation costs) than iRex would have been, but that long term pain will be quietly swept under the carpet for future politicians and KiwiRail managers to worry about, with the decision heralded as fiscally responsible commercial brilliance.
* project will hurt KiwiRail’s rail freight business in the medium term, and reduce profitability. (seriously? coastal shipping to transfer locos for overhaul?? Anyone think that road operators won't be gleefully eyeing up carting that nicely containerised Ashburton grain from the ferries to Marton?).
A disappointing week that reconfirms that the road bridging decision was made by short term anti-rail thinking a year ago, and that KiwiRail has since been "encouraged" to tow the line and say that road bridging is a sensible and perfectly manageable alternative to rail freight being on rail wagons... all to have any chance of a poke at the begging bowl for scraps to keep their "rail ferry" operation afloat. A year of political posturing, wasted time, effort and $ to gloss over a kneejerk cancellation decision made without any consideration of the long term implications, or even a plan B. Well, plan B is about to be revealed. It might smell like excrement in a few months time, but for the next few weeks the sunshine pump will be working overtime to sell it like its the bee's knees.
On the plus side, maritime evaluations in July revealed the much-troubled (but at least rail-enabled) Aratere can limp on until 2029. Postponing the loss of truely interisland rail freight (grain, steel), and decisions on the creation of a new South Island locomotive overhaul centre and duplication of infrastructure-related rolling stock in each island. Presumably nons of that was factored into the rail bridging ROI calculation. I hope a few more years can be wrung out of the Aratere as long as the existing rail linkspans are not blown up during the implementation of the new project. And then this decision can be revisited a few years before the boat passes its best-used-before date.