18/06/2025
State of Origin 2025: Game 2 Predictions - Queensland vs New South Wales
Date: June 18, 2025 | Venue: Optus Stadium, Perth | Kickoff: 8:05 PM AEST
Series Context:
- Current Stand: NSW leads 1-0 after an 18-6 victory in Game 1 at Suncorp Stadium, dominating possession, defense, and forward battles.
- Historical Edge: NSW has won 10 of the last 14 Game 2 matches, including both previous Origin games in Perth by 32-point margins.
Key Predictions:
1. Match Outcome:
- NSW Favored to Win:
- Stats Insider's model gives NSW a 68% chance of winning, predicting a 24-17 scoreline.
- Experts widely tip NSW by 12+ points, citing their superior forward pack (Haas, Yeo) and attacking firepower (Cleary, Crichton, Lomax).
- Queensland's Challenges: Maroons' overhauled spine (Dearden at halfback, Munster as captain) raises questions about cohesion.
2. Margin & Total Points:
- NSW -7.5 is a popular bet, with 5 of the last 6 Game 2 matches decided by 13+ margins.
- Total Points: Over 41.5 is favored due to both teams' attacking potential, though Stats Insider leans slightly Under (51% probability).
3. Try Scorer Tips:
- First Try Scorer:
- Zac Lomax (NSW, $7.50): Scored a double in Game 1 and excels in aerial contests.
- Xavier Coates (QLD, $11): Maroons' lone try-scorer in Game 1 and a threat on the right edge.
- Anytime Try Scorer:
- Stephen Crichton (NSW, 35.3% probability) and Latrell Mitchell (41.9%) are high-probability picks.
4. Player of the Match:
- Nathan Cleary (NSW, $5): Expected to control the game with his kicking and leadership.
- Cameron Munster (QLD, $14): As new captain, his performance is critical for Queensland's hopes.
5. Wildcards:
- Queensland's "Backs Against the Wall" Mentality: History shows they thrive as underdogs, but Perth's neutral venue may negate this.
- Weather Factor: Overcast conditions (90% chance of rain) could favor NSW's structured play over Queensland's ad-lib style.
Final Verdict:
Predicted Score: NSW 26 - QLD 16
- Why? NSW's forward dominance, Cleary-Luai halves pairing, and Queensland's shaky spine adjustments tilt the balance. Expect a late Blues surge to cover the -7.5 line.
Best Bets:
- NSW -7.5 @ $2.00
- First Try: Zac Lomax @ $7.50
- Player of Match: Nathan Cleary @ $5
For live updates, tune into Channel Nine (AUS) or Fox League (Kayo).
Note: Odds and predictions are subject to change. Gamble responsibly.
