15/11/2024
TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 6
Typhoon (MAN-YI)
Issued at 2:00 AM, 16 November 2024
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 5:00 AM today.
TYPHOON “PEPITO” MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH WHILE MOVING WEST NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA EAST OF EASTERN VISAYAS.
•Location of Center (1:00 AM):
The center of the eye of Typhoon PEPITO was estimated based on all available data including from Guiuan Weather Surveillance Radar at 260 km East Northeast of Guiuan, Eastern Samar or 280 km East of Borongan City, Eastern Samar (11.8°N, 128.0°E).
•Intensity:
Maximum sustained winds of 155 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 190 km/h, and central pressure of 955 hPa
•Present Movement:
West northwestward at 30 km/h
•Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds:
Strong to typhoon-force winds extend outwards up to 440 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No.3
Wind threat:Storm-force winds
Warning lead time: 18 hours
Range of wind speeds: 89 to 117 km/h (Beaufort 10 to 11)
Potential impacts of winds: Moderate to significant threat to life and property
Luzon:
The eastern portion of Catanduanes (Gigmoto, Baras, Bato, San Miguel)
Visayas:
The northeastern portion of Northern Samar (Palapag, Laoang)
TCWS No.2
Wind threat: Gale-force winds
Warning lead time: 24 hours
Range of wind speeds: 62 to 88 km/h (Beaufort 8 to 9)
Potential impacts of winds: Minor to moderate threat to life and property
Luzon:
The rest of Catanduanes, the eastern and central portions of Camarines Sur (Caramoan, Siruma, Tinambac, Lagonoy, Garchitorena, Presentacion, San Jose, Goa, Sagñay, Tigaon, Buhi, Iriga City, Ocampo, Calabanga, Bombon, Naga City, Pili, Baao, Magarao, Canaman, Camaligan, Milaor, Gainza, Bula, Nabua, Bato, Balatan, Minalabac, San Fernando, Pamplona, Cabusao, Libmanan, Pasacao, Sipocot, Lupi), the eastern portion of Camarines Norte (Mercedes, Basud, Daet, Talisay, San Lorenzo Ruiz, Vinzons, San Vicente), Albay, and Sorsogon
Visayas:
The northern portion of Eastern Samar (Arteche, Oras, San Policarpo, Dolores, Jipapad, Maslog, Can-Avid, Taft), the northeastern portion of Samar (San Jose de Buan, Matuguinao), and the rest of Northern Samar
TCWS No.1
Wind threat: Strong winds
Warning lead time: 36 hours
Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)
Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
Luzon:
Masbate including Ticao Island and Burias Island, the rest of Camarines Norte, the rest of Camarines Sur, Marinduque, the eastern portion of Romblon (Cajidiocan, San Fernando, Magdiwang, Romblon, Banton, Corcuera), Quezon including Polillo Islands, Laguna, the eastern and central portions of Cavite (Mendez, Gen. Mariano Alvarez, Noveleta, Silang, City of Dasmariñas, City of General Trias, Amadeo, Carmona, Kawit, Naic, Rosario, Tanza, Tagaytay City, Bacoor City, Trece Martires City, Imus City, Cavite City, Indang), the northern and eastern portions of Batangas (Malvar, Cuenca, Taysan, Talisay, Padre Garcia, Santo Tomas, San Jose, Lipa City, Ibaan, City of Tanauan, Mataasnakahoy, Balete, San Juan, Rosario), Rizal, Metro Manila, Aurora, Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, Tarlac, Bulacan, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Isabela, the eastern portion of Pangasinan (Alcala, Bayambang, Bautista, Villasis, City of Urdaneta, Rosales, Balungao, Umingan, San Quintin, Natividad, San Nicolas, Tayug, Santa Maria, Asingan, San Manuel, Santo Tomas, Binalonan), Ifugao, the eastern portion of Mountain Province (Paracelis, Natonin, Barlig) and the eastern portion of Benguet (Buguias, Kabayan, Bokod, Itogon)
Visayas:
The rest of Eastern Samar, the rest of Samar, Biliran, the northern and eastern portions of Leyte (Tunga, Pastrana, San Miguel, Matag-Ob, Tolosa, Palo, Calubian, Leyte, Mayorga, Julita, Carigara, Babatngon, Dagami, Jaro, San Isidro, Santa Fe, Albuera, Villaba, La Paz, Palompon, Macarthur, Tabontabon, Tanauan, Merida, Ormoc City, Isabel, Dulag, Capoocan, Alangalang, Burauen, Tabango, Tacloban City, Kananga, Barugo, Abuyog, Javier), the northeastern portion of Southern Leyte (Silago), the northernmost portion of Cebu (Daanbantayan, Medellin) including Bantayan Islands, and the northeastern portion of Iloilo (Carles)
Mindanao:
The northern portion of Dinagat Islands (Loreto, Tubajon)
OTHER HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall Outlook
Refer to Weather Advisory No. 40 issued at 2:00 AM today for the three-day heavy rainfall outlook associated with “PEPITO”.
Severe Winds
The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.
• Moderate to significant impacts from storm-force winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 3.
• Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 2.
• Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.
The highest Wind Signal which may be hoisted during the occurrence of PEPITO is Wind Signal No. 5.
Coastal Inundation
There is a high risk of life-threatening storm surge with peak heights exceeding 3.0 m in the next 48 hours over the low-lying or exposed coastal localities of Eastern Samar, Northern Samar, Samar, Bicol Region, Marinduque, Quezon including Polillo Islands, Cavite, Batangas, Metro Manila, Central Luzon, Isabela, and Ilocos Region. Refer to Storm Surge Warning No. 5 issued at 2:00 AM today for the details.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
A Gale Warning is hoisted over the eastern seaboard of Southern Luzon and eastern seaboard of Visayas. Refer to Gale Warning No. 9A issued at 11:00 PM yesterday for the details.
24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook
Up to very rough, high, or very high seas over the following coastal waters:
• Up to 14.0 m: The seaboard of Catanduanes
• Up to 8.0 m: The eastern seaboards of Albay, Sorsogon, and Eastern Samar; the northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Samar
• Up to 5.5 m: the northern and eastern seaboards of Camarines Sur
• Sea travel is risky for all types or tonnage of vessels. All mariners must remain in port or, if underway, seek shelter or safe harbor as soon as possible until winds and waves subside.
Up to rough seas over the following coastal waters:
• Up to 4.0 m: The northern and eastern seaboards of Polillo Islands; the seaboard of Camarines Norte
• Up to 3.5 m: The seaboards of Isabela, Aurora, northern Quezon, Dinagat Islands, and Surigao del Norte including Siargao and Bucas Grande Islands; the remaining seaboards of Polillo Islands, Bicol Region, and Eastern Visayas
• Up to 3.0 m: The eastern seaboard of mainland Cagayan; the remaining seaboard of Quezon; The seaboards of Marinduque, Romblon, and northern Cebu
• Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under these conditions, especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels.
Up to moderate seas over the following coastal waters:
• Up to 2.5 m: The seaboard of Batanes; the northern seaboards of Ilocos Norte and Cagayan including Babuyan Islands
• Up to 2.0 m: The seaboards of Oriental Mindoro, Aklan, Capiz, and Davao Oriental
• Mariners of motorbancas and similarly-sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigation under these conditions.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• PEPITO is forecast to move generally west northwestward within the next three days before turning generally westward to west southwestward from Monday (18 November) evening to Wednesday (20 November) evening. On the track forecast, PEPITO is more likely to make landfall in the vicinity of Catanduanes tonight or tomorrow (17 November) early morning. However, considering the limits of the forecast confidence cone, a landfall scenario over the eastern coast of Camarines Sur, Albay, or Sorsogon during the same time frame, over the eastern coast of Northern Samar this afternoon or evening, or along the eastern coast of Quezon or Aurora tomorrow afternoon or evening remains not ruled out. PEPITO is expected to exit the PAR region on Monday.
• Regardless of the landfall point, PEPITO will more likely move generally west northwestward over the weekend and pass over or near the landmass of Bicol Region, Quezon, Central Luzon provinces, and Pangasinan before emerging over the West Philippine Sea tomorrow evening or Monday morning.
• It must be emphasized that heavy rainfall, severe winds, and storm surge may still be experienced in localities outside the landfall point and the forecast confidence cone. Refer to “Other Hazards affecting Land Areas” for more details. Furthermore, the track may still shift within the limit of the forecast confidence cone.
• PEPITO will continue to rapidly intensify today through tomorrow and may reach super typhoon category prior to its landfall tonight or tomorrow early morning. Although a slight weakening may occur after its initial passage over land, much of the weakening will occur on tomorrow as PEPITO passes over the landmass of Central Luzon. Nevertheless, it will traverse the country as a typhoon and will likely be downgraded into a severe tropical storm once it is over the West Philippine Sea on Monday.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 5:00 AM today.
DOST-PAGASA
Links:
➣ TC Bulletin for Pepito: tinyurl.com/tc-pepito
➣ Weather Advisory: tinyurl.com/wx-adv
➣ Gale Warning: tinyurl.com/wx-gale
➣ Storm Surge: tinyurl.com/wx-surge
➣ TC Warning Agriculture: tinyurl.com/tc-warning-agri
