26/05/2025
Please read guys!
🚨WARNING🚨 Alt Season Cancelled❓️
Alt/BTC pairs have just put in their lowest weekly close this cycle.
Does this mean we are not going to get that face melting gains from those juicy alt bags we accumulated from 2023 onwards?
I'm not saying we aren't getting an Alt Season, but surely the odds of not getting one are stacking up.
For an alt season to begin in the current macro environment, several catalysts need to align to drive capital into altcoins.
Here’s what to watch for:
● Monetary Policy Shift: Central banks, especially the Fed, need to adopt a more dovish stance. This could mean rate cuts or renewed quantitative easing (QE), increasing liquidity. Altcoins thrive on cheap money, as it encourages risk-taking. Right now, the Fed’s hawkish tone is a headwind.
● Bitcoin Dominance Drop: Bitcoin dominance needs to decline from its current levels (historically around 50-60% during alt season setups). A BTC rally often precedes alt seasons, but once BTC stabilizes or corrects, capital flows into alts. Look for BTC to hit a new all-time high, followed by a dip in dominance below 50%.
● Improved Global Risk Sentiment: Geopolitical tensions (e.g., Ukraine, Middle East) and trade conflicts (US tariffs at historic highs per IMF reports) are stifling risk appetite. A de-escalation of these issues, or a resolution to trade disputes, could boost confidence in risk assets like altcoins.
● Crypto-Specific Catalysts: Major developments in the crypto space can spark interest. Examples include:
○ Ethereum or Layer-2 Upgrades: Significant updates (e.g., scaling solutions, lower gas fees) could drive interest in ETH and related alts.
○ Regulatory Clarity: Positive regulatory news, like the US approving clearer crypto frameworks, could attract institutional money.
○ Adoption Milestones: Big companies or governments adopting altcoins for payments or infrastructure (e.g., Solana for DeFi, Cardano for real-world use cases) would draw attention.
● Macro Economic Stabilization: Global growth needs to pick up—current forecasts (US GDP at 1.9%, eurozone at 0.8%, per IMF) are sluggish. A rebound in growth, or a drop in inflation below the current 3.4% (UN data), could ease pressure on risk assets. A weaker US dollar, driven by policy shifts, would also help by making altcoins more attractive to international investors.
● Market Sentiment and Retail FOMO: On-chain data showing increased retail activity (e.g., higher wallet addresses, social media buzz on X) often signals the start of an alt season. A trigger like a meme coin surge (e.g., DOGE or SHIB) can pull retail investors in, spreading capital to other alts.
As of the moment, each of these catalysts for an Alt Season hasn't been met. So be cautious out there. Protect your capital. Those that call for an alt season each week may sound confident and contrarian, but altcoins have been bleeding to Bitcoin almost non-stop since 2021.
