15/11/2024
Keep Safe Everyone!!! mag update po kami from Time to Time ng Weather Typhoon Update!
Bagyong Pepito Wind 185Km/H
Starting 8am ramdam na ang Light Rain sa Camarines Norte,
Typhoon INFO from ZOOM earth
https://zoom.earth/maps/wind-speed/ =11.689,127.331,6z/model=icon
This is a dangerous system. Possible risks include damaging winds, heavy rainfall, storm surge, rough seas, mudslides, and flash flooding.
Information provided by JTWC
Wind speeds and categorizations may differ from those reported by local meteorological agencies.
Man-yi (Philippine name Pepito, Japanese Typhoon Number 24) is located 932 km east-southeast of Manila, Philippines, and has tracked west-northwestward at 28 km/h (15 knots) over the past 6 hours. Maximum significant wave height is 14.3 meters (47 feet).
Man-yi is forecast to track west-northwestward over the next 3 days along the southern edge of the subtropical ridge, intensifying to a peak intensity of 230 km/h (125 knots) at 24 hours.
After making landfall in around 42 hours, Man-yi will rapidly weaken as it crosses Luzon. After 3 days, the system will encounter extensive dry air and strong wind shear and will weaken rapidly while turning west-southwestward.
The 15/06:00 UTC EPS (ECMWF) ensemble and the 15/00:00 UTC GEFS (GFS) ensemble remain in exceptionally tight agreement over the next 3 days, with landfall expected just south of casiguran.
After 3 days, there is increasing uncertainty, with solutions spreading from southeast Vietnam to Hainan island. The deterministic guidance shows tight agreement over the next 3 days, with a 139 km cross-track spread at 3 days.
The guidance diverges slightly, primarily relating to track speeds, with a 250 km cross-track spread at 5 days. The 15/00:00 UTC COAMPS-TC ensemble (CTCXEPS) intensity probability chart shows peak RI probabilities of 40–50% over the next 24 hours, decreasing gradually to 20% in 36 hours.
CTCXEPS also shows a 70–90% probability of a strong typhoon (100–129 knots) in 1 to 2 days.
HAFS-A also supports the RI phase and shows a peak intensity of 230 km/h (125 knots) at 24 hours.
Warning Number 27. Information provided by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).
