16/09/2025
TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 4
Tropical Depression
Issued at 2:00 AM, 17 September 2025
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 5:00 AM today.
โMIRASOLโ IS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF AURORA.
Location of Center (1:00 AM)
The center of Tropical Depression MIRASOL was estimated based on all available data including from Baler and Daet Doppler Weather Radars at over the coastal waters of Casiguran, Aurora (16.0ยฐN, 122.2ยฐE).
Intensity
Maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 75 km/h, and central pressure of 1006 hPa
Present Movement
Westward at 15 km/h
Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds
Strong winds extend outwards up to 200 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No. 1
Wind threat: Strong winds
Luzon
Batanes, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Isabela, Quirino, the northern and eastern portions of Nueva Vizcaya (Diadi, Quezon, Kasibu, Dupax del Norte, Bambang, Ambaguio, Bayombong, Solano, Villaverde, Bagabag, Alfonso Castaรฑeda, Dupax del Sur), the northern and central portions of Aurora (Dilasag, Casiguran, Dinalungan, Dipaculao, Baler, Maria Aurora, San Luis), Apayao, Abra, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Ilocos Norte, the northern portion of Ilocos Sur (Sinait, Cabugao, San Juan, Magsingal, Santo Domingo, Bantay, San Vicente, San Ildefonso, Santa Catalina, City of Vigan, Caoayan, Santa), Polillo Islands, and the northern portion of Camarines Norte (Capalonga, Jose Panganiban, Paracale, Vinzons)
Warning lead time: 36 hours
Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)
Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
OTHER HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall Outlook
Refer to Weather Advisory No. 3 issued at 11:00 PM yesterday for the heavy rainfall outlook due to Tropical Cyclone MIRASOL.
Severe Winds
The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.
โข Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.
Based on the intensity forecast, MIRASOL will likely intensify into a tropical storm when it re-emerges over the Luzon Strait. With this intensification, hoisting of Wind Signal No. 2 is possible over some portions of Northern Luzon.
The Southwest Monsoon will bring strong to gale-force gusts over the following areas (especially in coastal and upland areas exposed to winds):
โข Today: The southern portion of Quezon, the rest of Camarines Norte that is not under Wind Signal, Marinduque, Romblon, the southern portion of Mindoro provinces, and Panay Island.
โข Tomorrow (18 September): Panay Island, Palawan, Mindoro Provinces, Marinduque, Romblon, the southern portion of Quezon, Camarines Norte, Isabela, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Batanes, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, and Pangasinan.
โข Friday (19 September): Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Zambales, and Bataan.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook
Up to moderate seas over the following coastal waters:
โข Up to 3.0 m: The seaboard of Isabela
โข Up to 2.5 m: The seaboards of Cagayan, Babuyan Islands, Batanes, and Aurora; the northern seaboard of Ilocos Norte.
โข Mariners of motorbancas and similarly-sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigation under these conditions.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
โข Tropical Depression MIRASOL is forecast to move north northwestward while slightly decelerating as it approaches Isabela-Aurora area. On the forecast track, the center of MIRASOL may make landfall in Isabela or northern portion of Aurora in the next 12 hours. However, a more north northwestward or northward movement will likely result to no landfall scenario and will just move over the coastal waters of Northern and Central Luzon. MIRASOL is forecast to traverse Northern Luzon and will re-emerge over the Luzon Strait by this evening. Afterwards, MIRASOL will continue moving generally northwestward until it exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility between tomorrow afternoon and evening.
โข MIRASOL will maintain its strength or will slightly weaken as it crosses the Northern Luzon landmass. Once it is over the Luzon Strait, it is forecast to intensify and reach tropical storm category by tomorrow morning. On the forecast track, MIRASOL will remain as a tropical storm throughout the forecast period however, further intensification to severe tropical storm is not ruled out.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 5:00 AM today.
DOST-PAGASA
