02/11/2025
UPDATE: Bagyong Tino, until until nang nagpaparamdam sa Visayas
TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 2
Severe Tropical Storm (KALMAEGI)
Issued at 5:00 PM, 02 November 2025
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 11:00 PM today.
“TINO” INTENSIFIES INTO ASEVERE TROPICAL STORM WHILE OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA
• Location of Center (4:00 PM)
The center of Severe Tropical Storm TINO was estimated based on all available data at 805 km East of Eastern Visayas (11.4°N, 133.1°E)
• Intensity
Maximum sustained winds of 95 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 115 km/h, and central pressure of 990 hPa
• Present Movement
Westward at 30 km/h
• Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds
Strong to storm-force winds extend outwards up to 240 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No. 1
➣ Wind threat: Strong winds
➣ Warning lead time: 36 hours
➣ Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)
➣ Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
VISAYAS:
Eastern Samar, Northern Samar, Samar, Biliran, Leyte, Southern Leyte, and Camotes Islands
MINDANAO:
Dinagat Islands and Surigao del Norte
OTHER HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall Outlook
• Refer to Weather Advisory No. 5 issued at 5:00 PM today for the heavy rainfall outlook due to TINO. Link: tinyurl.com/wxadvisory
➣ Severe Winds
The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.
• Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.
The highest Wind Signal that will likely be hoisted throughout its passage is Wind Signal No. 4.
Furthermore the surge of the Northeast Monsoon coinciding with the passage of TINO will also bring strong to gale-force gusts over the following areas not under Wind Signal (especially in coastal and upland areas exposed to winds):
• Today: Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, the northern and eastern portion of mainland Cagayan, the eastern portion of Isabela, Aurora, Quezon, Lubang Islands, Marinduque, Calaguas Islands, and Caluya Islands
• Tomorrow (03 November): Most of Cagayan Valley, most of Cordillera Administrative Region, Ilocos Norte, Aurora, Bulacan, Bataan, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, and Bicol Region.
• Tuesday (04 November): Most of Cagayan Valley, most of Cordillera Administrative Region, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, most of Central Luzon, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, and Bicol Region.
➣ Coastal Flooding
There is a high risk of life-threatening and damaging storm surge within the next 48 hours over the low-lying coastal communities of Sorsogon, Masbate, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Samar, Biliran, Leyte, Southern Leyte, Cebu, Bohol, Siquijor, Negros Oriental, Negros Occidental, Capiz, Iloilo, Guimaras, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur, Agusan del Norte, Misamis Oriental, and Camiguin. Refer to Storm Surge Warning No. 1 issued at 2:00 PM today for more details.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
• Gale Warning may be raised over the eastern seaboards of Eastern Visayas and Caraga Region tonight or tomorrow (03 November) early morning in anticipation of very rough sea conditions or worse.
➣ 24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook
Up to very rough or high seas over the following coastal waters:
• Up to 7.0 m: The seaboard of Eastern Samar
• Up to 6.0 m: The northern and eastern seaboards of Siargao and Bucas Grande Islands.
• Up to 4.5 m: The eastern seaboard of Northern Samar
• Sea travel is risky for all types or tonnage of vessels. All mariners must remain in port or, if underway, seek shelter or safe harbor as soon as possible until winds and waves subside.
Up to rough seas over the following coastal waters:
• Up to 4.0 m: The seaboards of Batanes, Babuyan Islands, and Ilocos Norte; the eastern seaboards of mainland Cagayan, Isabela, Leyte, and Southern Leyte; the western seaboard of Dinagat Islands.
• Up to 3.5 m: The remaining seaboard of mainland Cagayan; the seaboard of Ilocos Sur, Aurora, northern mainland Quezon, Camarines Norte, and Surigao del Sur; the northern and eastern seaboards of Polillo Islands and Catanduanes; the northern seaboard of Northern Samar; the eastern seaboards of Albay and Sorsogon.
• Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under these conditions, especially if inexperienced of operating ill-equipped vessels.
Up to moderate to rough seas over the following coastal waters:
• Up to 2.5 m: The remaining seaboard of Catanduanes, Eastern Visayas, Dinagat Islands, and Surigao del Norte; the eastern seaboard of Camarines Sur.
• Up to 2.0 m: The seaboard of La Union, Central Visayas, Northern Mindanao, and Davao Occidental; the eastern seaboard of mainland Quezon and Davao Oriental; the western seaboard of Pangasinan; the remaining seaboards of Bicol Region and Caraga Region.
• Mariners of motorbancas and similarly sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigation under these conditions.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• Heavy rainfall, severe winds, and storm surge may still be experienced in localities outside the landfall point and the forecast confidence cone. Refer to hoisted Wind Signals and the “Other Hazards affecting Land Areas” section for more details. Furthermore, the track may still shift within the limit of the forecast confidence cone.
• On the track forecast, TINO will move generally westward over the next three days and make its initial landfall over Eastern Samar or Dinagat Islands tomorrow (03 November) late evening or on Tuesday (04 November) early morning. Afterwards, TINO will traverse Visayas and northern Palawan before emerging over the West Philippine Sea on Wednesday (05 November) morning or afternoon.
• TINO is forecast to continuously intensify and may reach typhoon category within the next 24 hours. Furthermore, it will likely make its initial landfall at or near peak intensity (currently forecasted around 150-165 km/h maximum winds with higher gustiness). Rapid intensification within the next 48 hours is likely. The possibility of reaching super typhoon category is not ruled out based on alternate scenarios and climatological data. While the passage over country will trigger a slight weakening, TINO is expected to remain as a typhoon throughout its passage over the country.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
