26/11/2025
Beyond the Coup Rumors: What the AFP Is Actually Worried About
For weeks now, whispers about an alleged coup have bounced around social media, as if the country were slipping back into the restless, coup-prone years after EDSA. But when you look closely at how todayâs Armed Forces actually operate, those rumors donât hold up. The AFP simply isnât the same institution it used to be.
Instead of peering inward or sizing up political factions, the militaryâs attention has swung sharply outwardâto the West Philippine Sea, where Chinese vessels have been pushing harder and harder over the past decade. And if you talk to people who study defense or keep tabs on the AFPâs mood, youâll notice something consistent: the unease inside the ranks isnât about President Marcos Jr.
Itâs about the possibility of drifting back to the kind of China-friendly policy the country saw under Rodrigo Duterteâand what that might look like if it returns under his daughter, Sara Duterte.
A Military Thatâs Looking Beyond Manila
Anyone who remembers the 1980s understands why coup rumors catch on so quickly. Back then, the AFP was riddled with factions, and power struggles sometimes spilled into the streets. But the armed forces have spent years pulling themselves away from that era.
These days, their playbook is built around the West Philippine Sea. Officers talk about territorial defense, joint patrols, interoperabilityâthings you mention only when youâre taking foreign threats seriously. Billions of pesos have been set aside for the next modernization push. International exercises with traditional allies are now happening with a regularity that wouldâve been unthinkable a decade ago.
Nothing in that pattern suggests a group of officers daydreaming about seizing Malacañang. If anything, theyâre trying to make sure the country wonât be blindsided by what happens at sea.
The Shadow of the Duterte-Era China Policy
If thereâs a ghost haunting military thinking, itâs the memory of Duterteâs âgentlemanâs agreementâ with Xi Jinpingâan informal deal that reportedly told the AFP and Coast Guard to hold back in waters the country has every right to be in. That left a mark.
You donât forget something like that if your job is to defend the countryâs territory. And you definitely donât forget it if youâve watched China follow up with water cannons, ramming, laser incidents, and intimidation around our shoals.
So when soldiers and officers hear talk of a Duterte comeback, even indirectly through the Vice President, it raises questions they canât ignore. Will Beijing regain the kind of influence it enjoyed? Will policy shift again? Will another âunwrittenâ deal appearâone that ties the militaryâs hands just when the region is heating up?
The AFP of Today Isnât Dreaming of Power
If thereâs anything the modern AFP has been trying to convey, itâs that theyâre not the power-grabbing force some Filipinos still imagine. With EDCA sites expanding and the Philippines slotting more tightly into Indo-Pacific security networks, the AFP isnât positioning itself to play kingmaker.
Theyâre trying to hold the line in the West Philippine Sea. And theyâre trying to do it alongside allies who expect professionalism, not political intrigue.
What This Really Means for the Country
Maybe the reason coup rumors get traction is simple: weâre used to thinking of the military as a wildcard during political turbulence. But this time, the story seems to be somewhere else entirely.
Inside the AFP, the real fear isnât about who sits in Malacañang todayâitâs about a future administration that might reopen the door to Beijingâs influence and quietly pull the country back to the days of âgentlemanâs agreementsâ and strategic silence.
The soldiers and sailors on the ground know exactly what that felt like, and they know what it cost. And whether people realize it or not, theyâve been reshaping the entire institution to make sure it doesnât happen again.
If we want to understand where the AFP stands right now, we have to stop staring at imagined coup plots and start paying attention to the storm gathering at seaâand the political winds that could either help the country stand its ground or push it back into the arms of a foreign power.
