Kwentuhan Sessions

Kwentuhan Sessions A public notebook. Stocks, books, photography, fitness, and life. Life updates on IG:

Still thinking about the podcast but not yet.

29/03/2026

Last week, I got into a minor accident at an intersection. My car was sideswiped from behind, and my rear bumper got dislodged.

A traffic enforcer arrived and helped us move to the traffic bureau to file a report. He was surprisingly pleasant and professional. He explained everything clearly, although he mentioned that both of us might still receive traffic violations even if I was the one who got hit. He collected our driver’s licenses and vehicle documents.

At the bureau, our documents were photocopied, and we both paid ₱35 each for copies. We filled out forms, wrote our statements, and submitted everything properly.

After that, I spoke with the other driver. In my view, it was clearly his fault which of course, he didn’t agree. But we both acknowledged it was an unfortunate accident. In a traffice accident here were only two options: go through insurance or take the case to court. Going to the insurance company is the better choice but there must be an admittance of fault which he do not want.

He suggested we just forget about it and not file a report. I declined immediately because my car had significant damage.

We then spoke with the investigator. He was also calm, helpful, and surprisingly approachable. It was very different from the usual image you see on TV. He explained that he wouldn’t determine fault himself; that would be up to the court. His suggestion was simple: settle if possible, because it would be faster and less complicated. He just reminded us that there is a ₱2,500 fine for each of us due to the incident.

After some discussion, we agreed on a compromise: we would split the participation fee, and he would revise his statement and admit fault so the insurance process could proceed. The investigator asked his assistant to revise the police report.

While waiting, the investigator called me into his office. He was holding my driver’s license. He told me I was “lucky” because he could waive my fine.

At that moment, I understood what he meant. I asked if I could give something for “pang-merienda.” He smiled and said he wasn’t asking, but he wouldn’t refuse. I gave ₱500 and thanked him.

Later, the other driver told me he was also asked for something similar.

I’ve been thinking about that moment.

Technically, the investigator was helpful. He made the process easier and faster. He didn’t explicitly ask for money but I think the message was clear.

So now I’m left wondering. Was that corruption? Was it on his part or mine? Or is it simply part of the system we’ve all learned to navigate?

It’s easy to say that corruption is wrong. And I believe that. But situations like this don’t always feel black and white.

Sometimes, it feels like you’re just trying to get through a broken process. You’re not trying to cheat anyone. You’re not trying to harm anyone. You just want a solution and a quick one.

But maybe that’s exactly how these things continue. Not because people are purely bad but because small compromises feel convenient and even justified in the moment.

I don’t have a clear answer. I am probably wrong but I do know this: What feels small and harmless individually… might be part of a bigger problem collectively.

21/03/2026

You may outgrow my arms but you will never outgrow my love.

I’ll always be here and you’ll always be safe with me. 😍

Jk lang yung dulo 🤡

It Only Works Until It Doesn'tAt the back of our 8-year-old car, there’s a third-row seat that can be lifted up and down...
20/03/2026

It Only Works Until It Doesn't

At the back of our 8-year-old car, there’s a third-row seat that can be lifted up and down. Last week, my daughter asked if she could sit in the back. I said yes and told her I’d bring the seat down the next time we use the car.

While waiting to fetch her from school, I went to the back of the car and tried to bring down the third-row seat. To my surprise, I couldn’t lock it to the floor. I realized that I didn’t really know how the mechanism worked. Whenever someone sat at the back before, I just let them figure it out on their own. I didn’t bother learning how it worked.

I checked the locks and tried different ways to secure the seat, but failed. I knew how to unlock it from the floor, but I couldn’t lock it back down.

Then I checked the other seat and noticed that one side of the mechanism looked different. I pushed down the locking part and, stupidly, I ended up locking the other seat too. Now, I couldn’t lock down both seats.

I got frustrated. I even grabbed a metal bar. Despite the risk of damaging the mechanism, I tried to force it open. After an hour, wearing a sweat-soaked shirt, frustrated, and muttering a lot of censored words, I gave up.

When I picked up my daughter, I told her I still didn’t know how to bring the seat down but I’d try again next time. She was a bit sad but she said it was okay.

A few months later, the problem came to mind again. This time, I decided to check the manual and search online. I watched a few videos on how the third-row seat worked. I kept searching, but I couldn’t find a clear guide on how to unlock the mechanism. It was frustrating so I decided to take a break.

Before heading out, I told myself I’d watch one last video. It was a simple clip explaining how the seat worked. It seemed basic so I turned off my phone and went to the gym.

While running on the treadmill, something clicked. I realized that I already knew how to unlock the seat from the floor and maybe the same process applied to the locking mechanism. Looking back, it felt silly that I didn’t think of it sooner.

After my workout, I went straight to the car. And sure enough, all I had to do was pull the strap. Everything unlocked and I was finally able to secure the seat properly.

In life, there are things we take for granted. As long as we’re not affected, as long as everything seems fine, we stick to the status quo. We push things aside and leave them in the background until we actually need them.

The problem is, that only works until it doesn’t.

When things break down, we panic. We try to fix them by forcing solutions, by reacting with frustration, sometimes even with hurtful words. And when nothing works, we give up.

If you’re lucky, the problem simply remains unsolved. But more often than not, you end up making it worse and in many cases, relationships get damaged.

In my case, I was lucky I didn’t break anything in the car when I used that metal bar.

Looking back, the solution was simple. I just needed to slow down, think clearly, and understand how things actually worked.

Not everything needs force. Not everything needs frustration.

Sometimes, instead of using a metal bar, you just need to pull the strap.

Looking at the market today, it is easy to become discouraged. Many stocks are down and uncertainty continues to dominat...
15/03/2026

Looking at the market today, it is easy to become discouraged. Many stocks are down and uncertainty continues to dominate investor sentiment. Moments like this remind me that the stock market is never an easy place to make money.

However, the market rarely moves as one uniform block. Even during downturns, capital tends to rotate into sectors that are considered more defensive or those that benefit from global conditions such as rising commodity prices.

Mining companies, utilities, and consumer staples sometimes hold up better during these periods. They may not always be exciting, but they remind us that opportunities still exist for those who are willing to look carefully.

Of course, these are only observations from someone watching the market from the sidelines. As always, it is easier to create theories after the fact. The market has a way of humbling anyone who becomes too confident in their predictions.

For now, caution may still be the wiser approach. But for traders who are patient and disciplined, even a difficult market can still offer a few interesting opportunities.

Here are some defensive stocks that might benefit from the ongoing uncertainty.

$APX – Down from its previous high but still riding the MA50. Be careful because it also appears to be forming a head and shoulders pattern.

$NIKL – Similar to APX. It has fallen from its previous high and appears to be forming a lower high, but it is still hovering around the MA50.

$SCC – After experiencing a massive gap down, it is now attempting to close the gap and is currently trading above the MA50. Lucky for those who bought near the bottom.

$MER – Trading above the MA50, although the volume has been relatively low over the past few days.

$PGOLD – Appears to be moving sideways but remains above the MA50. Despite the ongoing uncertainty, it continues to show resilience.

$URC – Currently below all major moving averages after the recent gap down, but it is showing signs of resilience. The strong volume last Thursday suggests that the stock may be holding its support level.

As always, these are simply personal observations and not investment advice. Markets can change quickly and it is always best to do your own research.

How I Was Completely Wrong About Two BakeriesI have two friends who started bakery businesses around the same time. Let’...
09/03/2026

How I Was Completely Wrong About Two Bakeries

I have two friends who started bakery businesses around the same time. Let’s call them Banana and Apple.

Banana is a first-time entrepreneur. Her parents supported the business financially, and she was excited to build something of her own. But from the beginning, it was clear she was still learning the ropes. She hired an adviser who was a good baker but didn’t seem to have much experience running a modern business. Her marketing was almost non-existent. Her social media presence was practically invisible. She relied mostly on traditional methods. The only thing that immediately stood out to us was that the interior of her store looked nice.

Apple’s bakery, on the other hand, looked like a completely different operation. She partnered with several investors who had business experience and were willing to put in serious money. Her shop was about three times the size of Banana’s. The equipment was more advanced, the space looked polished, and the amenities were clearly designed with customers in mind.

She also invested heavily in systems. She had modern software to help manage the business. She also hired a marketing and social media team. Influencers were invited to promote the opening and create buzz online. From the outside, it looked like she had checked every box you could think of when starting a business.

One day my wife and I were talking about the two bakeries. Like someone who enjoys giving opinions, I confidently told her that while Banana’s bakery might survive, Apple’s operation looked far more likely to succeed. Everything about Apple’s setup simply seemed more prepared and professional.

I felt quite certain about that judgment.

A few weeks later, we heard surprising news.

Banana’s bakery was doing well, much better than expected. Meanwhile, Apple’s bakery was struggling.

When I heard that, I felt a bit embarrassed. I had been so confident about my prediction when I talked to my wife.

I couldn’t believe it. I had been so confident in my assessment, yet the outcome turned out to be the exact opposite of what I predicted.

Naturally, once we know the result, it becomes very easy to invent explanations. We can point to possible reasons why Banana succeeded or why Apple struggled. Maybe it was location. Maybe it was product quality. Maybe it was management style. There are always theories available after the fact.

But the more I thought about it, the more I realized something uncomfortable.

My original judgment wasn’t knowledge. It was just an opinion.

I was forming conclusions based only on the limited information I could see from the outside. I didn’t know the daily operations of either bakery. I didn’t know their internal problems, their financial pressures, their customer feedback, or the small decisions being made every day.

Even if I had known more details, there would still be countless variables influencing the outcome. Businesses are complex systems, and success rarely depends on just one or two visible factors.

What this experience reminded me is that confidence and correctness are not the same thing.

It’s very easy to sound convincing when we talk about things we don’t fully understand. And it’s just as easy to construct explanations after the outcome is already known. But those explanations are often just stories we tell ourselves to make the result feel logical.

In reality, they may be no more accurate than the opinions we had before.

Moments like this remind me that I may not be as smart as I sometimes think I am.

And perhaps that’s not a bad thing to remember.

Recognizing that my opinions are simply opinions, not some kind of truth, makes it easier to accept mistakes and keep learning.

At the end of the day, all any of us can really do is make the best decisions we can with the information we have.

But even then, the outcome is never guaranteed.

The past few weeks have been frustrating for me in the Philippine stock market.I initially believed DMC and SCC were sol...
06/03/2026

The past few weeks have been frustrating for me in the Philippine stock market.

I initially believed DMC and SCC were solid companies but shortly after writing about them, news broke that their mine was being auctioned by the government. The stocks dropped sharply, recovered slightly, and eventually stabilized but they failed to return to their previous range. Because of the uncertainty surrounding the issue, investors may remain hesitant.

I also wrote about several stocks approaching the golden cross, which is usually considered a bullish technical signal. Stocks trading above the MA50 with good volume are often good candidates for trend continuation.

Unfortunately, geopolitical events intervened.

The conflict involving Iran triggered a global risk-off sentiment, and the Philippine market followed the global sell-off.

So let’s check the stocks we selected. The percentages show how much we gained or lost from our starting point.

SSI (-13.5%)
DNL, PNB, BDO, CEB (-6% to -10%)

JFC, FCG, BALAI (-4% to -5%)
GLO, CLI, DDMPR, LTG, TEL (-1% to -3%)
FRUIT (0%)

ABA (+6%)
PLUS (+33.5%)

As we can see from the data, the biggest winner is PLUS. It’s quite puzzling to see that in times of war, people seem to flock to gambling. Good for the company but I’m not sure if it’s good for society.

ABA is also moving strongly with decent volume even though it’s a penny stock. To be honest, I’m still not entirely sure what their core business is.

Meanwhile, the traditional blue-chip stocks have been hit hard. As long as the war in Iran continues, the overall market climate will likely remain uncertain. If you don’t have the appetite for risk, it might be better to hold onto your cash until conditions improve.

For those of us still looking for opportunities, my rule remains simple: I drop stocks that fall below the MA50, break down from support, or if my loss reaches more than 5%.

I hope this is the bottom, but that’s probably wishful thinking.

Anyone brave enough to try some bottom fishing? 😅

When We Refuse to Be WrongA few days ago, I saw someone on X share a photo of women holding luxury bags. He mockingly im...
03/03/2026

When We Refuse to Be Wrong

A few days ago, I saw someone on X share a photo of women holding luxury bags. He mockingly implied that the so-called victims of Duterte’s Drug War had gotten rich.

Some people pushed back and said the photo was AI-generated. He replied that it’s hard to know what’s true these days because of how advanced AI has become.

Honestly, I thought he might have just been misled. AI can be very convincing, and the image looked realistic.

But the next day, he posted again. This time with his own analysis. He zoomed in on the photo and carefully explained why he believed it wasn’t fake. He pointed out the shadows, the edges, the placement of the hands on the bags to prove that this small details, to him, was real.

People responded again, saying that several news outlets had already clarified that the women weren’t holding luxury bags. Even the photographer had addressed it.

I wouldn’t blame him for initially thinking the photo was real. What struck me was how, even after clarification, he continued building arguments to defend his position. Looking at his other posts, he continued attacking his perceived enemies even if what he shared were already proved to be false.

And that made me think about bias.

Even intelligent people fall into it. Sometimes we don’t just look for the truth, we look for support for what we already believe. Once we form an opinion, our mind quietly starts protecting it.

Bias is natural. It’s part of being human. In many situations, it helps us make quick decisions. We can’t analyze everything deeply all the time. Sometimes we rely on shortcuts just to function. But bias becomes dangerous when it distorts reality.

I’ve experienced this myself in the stock market.

I had a favorite stock that I was highly biased toward. The technical chart was already giving warning signs. I was down significantly on paper, but I refused to let it go.

I told myself it was undervalued. I had this story of a foreign company that will invest. I blamed the economy. I convinced myself that better days were coming. I even added more money into it. Eventually, I stopped opening my account. I didn’t want to see the loss.

Because of that attachment, I missed other opportunities.

Reality was showing me one thing. My belief was telling me another. And I chose belief.

I also had a longtime friend who spent millions searching for the Yamash*ta treasure. When I tried to explain how improbable it was, even if he is not arguing, I could see the irritation on his face. We even had a trip planned, and instead of relaxing with us, he stayed in the hotel room constantly checking updates about the digging. I have reason to believe that it may have affected our relationship even until now.

His belief wasn’t just a theory, it became emotional.

I realized bias doesn’t just affect decisions. It affects relationships.

Sometimes bias helps us move forward without overthinking but when it goes unchecked, it also slows down learning. It makes us blame bad luck, other people, or external factors instead of examining our own decisions. If we can’t admit we might be wrong, we can’t improve.

We live in a time where everyone has a voice. It's a good thing. but it can also create the illusion that every opinion is automatically correct.

We live in a time where everyone has a voice but it also creates the illusion that every opinion is automatically correct. When we protect our views more than we question them, bias takes over. And once bias takes over, growth stops and sometimes ruin relationships.

The real danger is not having an opinion. The real danger is refusing to examine it.

Bias doesn’t just divide people, it limits us.

28/02/2026

Expecting a massive selloff on Monday because of US/Israel vs Iran War 😞

Weekend Stock Market UpdateLast week was a very good week for the Philippine Stock Market. Even DMC and SCC saw a strong...
28/02/2026

Weekend Stock Market Update

Last week was a very good week for the Philippine Stock Market. Even DMC and SCC saw a strong recovery, although they haven’t returned to their original prices. Swing traders likely made a killing on these stocks, but for long-term investors, I’m still wary about re-entering.

This week, several developments helped boost the market. The BSP officially lowered interest rates, which benefits companies by reducing borrowing costs and allowing more room for expansion. The US Supreme Court also struck down several of President Trump’s tariffs, which is good news for Asian markets like ours.

The biggest mover this week was PLUS (+9.64%), which is part of our watchlist. I’m honestly a bit frustrated that I’m stuck with my current portfolio and can only “watch” for now. I know there are better stocks out there, but I’m focusing on those with strong upside potential that I believe are near the bottom.

Let’s review last week’s watchlist:

SP – Starting Price
CP – Current Price

DNL (4.32 SP – 4.45 CP)
Still in an uptrend and respecting the EMA 10. Currently up from our starting price.

PNB (63.4 SP – 64.2 CP)
Dropped significantly at Friday’s close, but we’re still up overall. It’s hovering around the EMA 10 trendline.

BDO (138.8 SP – 137.3 CP)
Also down at Friday’s close due to profit-taking. Still respecting the MA 50, but I’m watching closely. A close below this line would usually be my signal to exit or reconsider entry.

JFC (208 SP – 214 CP)
Like most stocks, it was hit by profit-taking, but the chart still looks good and we’re still up.

ABA (0.36 SP – 0.39 CP)
Up 7.8% for the week — not bad for a penny stock.

FCG (0.62 SP – 0.63 CP)
Still in consolidation with low volume, which is concerning. There’s strong resistance at 0.63. It even looked like someone placed 6.3 million shares at the close to cap upward movement.

SSI (2.7 SP – 2.63 CP)
Down and closed below the MA 50. Still watching, but I’m not very optimistic. A golden cross is near, but perhaps the closure of Marks & Spencer affected sentiment.

GLO (1685 SP – 1740 CP)
Consolidating, above the golden cross, and respecting EMA 10. Might be worth adding more?

FRUIT (0.68 SP – 0.67 CP)
Low volume. Decent chart. Still a penny stock.

BALAI (0.35 SP – 0.36 CP)
Above MA 50, low volume, decent chart. Another penny stock.

CEB (35.95 SP – 37.9 CP)
Still strong with a P/E of 2. Above all major moving averages. Low volume on Friday but overall holding up well.

CLI (2.54 SP – 2.54 CP)
I expected this to move after the BSP rate cut. Surprisingly flat. ALI, which is theoretically stronger, is performing worse. People love ALI, but I’m not a fan of the chart.

DDMPR (1.07 SP – 1.09 CP)
We’ll just collect dividends while waiting for appreciation.

⸻

Long-Term Dividend Stocks

DMC/SCC – Dropping these from the list.

LTG (15.6 SP – 15.6 CP)
Four straight red candles. Not happy with this one as it’s approaching the MA 50.

TEL (1375 SP – 1400 CP)
Hugging the EMA 10. There’s news about its plan to dual list PayMaya. Down yesterday, but the chart still looks strong.

PLUS (13.6 SP – 16.1 CP)
Up 18% — a big winner. If only we had invested at the starting price. I believe this stock has already bottomed and may be starting a new uptrend.

⸻

Overall Thoughts

The past two weeks have been strong. Most of our picks are holding up well. Only BDO, FRUIT, and SSI are down.

We just need to stay cautious with low-volume penny stocks.

For long-term dividend plays, TEL, GLO, and PLUS look interesting.

For short-term trades, ABA might offer opportunities.

Confessions of a Marathon GatekeeperA few days ago, someone on Threads commented that runners who cannot finish within a...
22/02/2026

Confessions of a Marathon Gatekeeper

A few days ago, someone on Threads commented that runners who cannot finish within an 8-hour marathon cutoff are not ready and should not attempt a marathon at all. He even argued that 8 hours is too generous and that the cutoff should be around 6 to 6½ hours. The post caused a mild storm, with many people reacting strongly.

And I have a confession, I used to think the same way.

I used to ask my wife why anyone would run a marathon if they couldn’t finish in what I considered a “respectable” time. I believed that before attempting a marathon, a runner should train properly for at least 16 weeks and build a solid running base. A marathon is not easy. I believed it should not be done casually or haphazardly.

In my case, I had been running for about a year before doing a proper 20 week focused training block. I watched countless YouTube videos, read articles, and joined a 5K and a half marathon before signing up. For me, a marathon was a big deal. Less than 1% of the world’s population has completed one. It felt special. It felt sacred.

I finished mine in 4 hours and 40 minutes. I was proud. I posted my photos, my time, and my thoughts. It was something I used to only dream about. It became part of my identity, “marathon finisher.” And I wore that identity proudly.

Until I didn’t.

As time passed, I started noticing that more and more people were running marathons. Every year, hundreds of runners, some not even looking “fit” were crossing the finish line. Some stories were heartwarming. But part of me thought: if almost anyone can finish, is it still special?

That’s when I realized the problem wasn’t them. It was me.

Notice how often I said “I.” I trained. I finished. I achieved. I was proud.

The marathon started as a personal goal and that’s perfectly fine. But the problem began when I used my standard to judge other people’s journeys. I compared their times to mine. I quietly looked down on those who “barely” made the cutoff. I didn’t want finishing to feel easy for others because it would make my achievement feel less unique.

That wasn’t about the marathon. That was about ego.

I forgot that every runner has a reason. Some run to compete. Some to prove something to themselves. Some to heal. Some to honor someone. Some to fight inner battles that we will never see.

Finishing a marathon is finishing a marathon.
Whether it takes 4 hours, 6 hours, or the entire cutoff window, the distance is still 42.2 kilometers.

It’s ironic for someone like me who wouldn’t even qualify for the Milo Marathon National Finals, to judge someone else’s time. To an elite runner, my 4:40 would look laughable. Everything is relative.

If you’re racing for podium spots, yes, time matters. Standards matter. Competition matters.

But for most of us, ordinary runners with ordinary lives, the marathon is deeply personal.

One of the beautiful things about a marathon is that elites and amateurs share the same road. We line up together. We suffer together. We chase different goals on the same course.

A marathon is a race. A marathon is a challenge. A marathon is thousands of people willingly embracing discomfort and pain for a reason that is invisible to others.

If someone missed the cutoff because the lacked preparation, that’s part of their journey. They will learn from it and I hope they try again.
If someone barely made it under 8 hours, celebrate it because running that long takes courage.

If it’s your first time and you had a good race, cherish it without comparison. Remember, it was once just a dream.
If it’s your nth marathon, be grateful and enjoy every moment.

A marathon is not a race against others.

It’s a race against yourself.

(Unless you’re going for the podium, then yes, that’s different.)

Last week’s dividend article didn’t age well. I had just written about DMC/SCC as solid dividend plays when news broke a...
20/02/2026

Last week’s dividend article didn’t age well. I had just written about DMC/SCC as solid dividend plays when news broke about the government auctioning SCC’s coal mine. The market reacted quickly, and both stocks sold off sharply. SCC expressed confidence about winning the auction, but as a trader, once my 5% cut-loss is triggered, I have to exit. I can always re-enter if the opportunity presents itself. Capital preservation comes first.

In my previous article, I talked about doing nothing. But as a trader, I usually prefer calculated risk. I combine technical and fundamental analysis before making decisions. After reviewing today’s charts, here are some names I’m watching:

DNL (4.32)
RSI looks healthy. Trading above MA50 and consolidating within an ascending triangle. Ideally, I’d accumulate near MA50 and add if it breaks MA200 and confirms a golden cross.

PNB (63.4)
Not my usual preference since it already had a strong run, but technically and fundamentally it still looks solid. P/E is around 3.95 with a dividend yield of about 4.35%. Trading above both MA50 and MA200 and forming an ascending triangle. Watching carefully in case it develops into a double top.

BDO (138.😎
For a large-cap bank, valuation looks reasonable at a P/E of 8.71. It appears to be forming a bullish pennant after a double bottom. Currently above MA50 and attempting to reclaim MA200, with a potential golden cross developing.

JFC (208)
Higher valuation at a P/E of 22.19. Consolidating above MA50 and approaching MA200. Still technically in a broader downtrend, so caution is warranted.

⸻

Above MA50
•ABA (0.36) – Recently crossed MA50, now consolidating.
•FCG (0.62) – Riding MA50 and attempting to break MA200.
•SSI (2.70) – Retesting MA50. Low P/E (4.71) but volume is light.
•GLO (1,685) – Trading above MA50 and MA200. Potential golden cross forming and consolidating.

Golden Cross Watch
•FRUIT (0.68) – Riding MA50, though volume is low.
•BALAI (0.35) – Weak recent candle but still holding MA50.
•CEB (35.95) – Watching for MA50 retest. P/E is very low at 1.93, though sustainability of earnings should be monitored.
•CLI (2.54) – Above MA50/200 and consolidating near resistance.
•DDMPR (1.07) – Dividend play (~8.73%). Low P/E (6.14) and holding both MA50 and MA200.

If I had to allocate today, BDO would likely be my core position. I’d consider smaller positions in DNL, GLO, and possibly CEB. For higher-risk trades, I might take small speculative positions in names like ABA, FCG, and CLI.

PS: These are simply public musings and should not be taken as investment recommendations.

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