Ninong Waxx

Ninong Waxx 💰Crypto Investor | Navigating the blockchain jungle. Passionate about DeFi, altcoins, and the future of finance.
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Always hunting for the next big opportunity while keeping an eye on macro trends.

When Alt Season? To be honest, we may never see an alt season like what we saw in 2021.. BTC is poised to only grow in d...
22/06/2025

When Alt Season? To be honest, we may never see an alt season like what we saw in 2021.. BTC is poised to only grow in demand as Institutions keep pivoting their treasuries and balance sheets to BTC..

BTC.d is at 65.66% as of writing this post and is a couple of percentages away from breaking out of its all time resistance..

Governments have yet to start their purchases for BTC but recent updates hint at an almost certainty that Governments especially the G20 will allocate a small percentage of their portfolio to BTC..

If this does play out, BTC.d will only go much higher which will eventually drag this chart to its all time range lows..

So do we now get an alt season if we go that low on the alt/btc pairing? No. There are still catalysts that we need to happen, which I described in my previous posts, to get that alt season.

📈Alts/BTC Pair Update📉Total3 printing a lower low for the week and with around 14 hrs remaining until candle close, i th...
01/06/2025

📈Alts/BTC Pair Update📉

Total3 printing a lower low for the week and with around 14 hrs remaining until candle close, i think its safe to assume that we'll be closing near .33 level.. Which means that our hope for an alt season is becoming slimmer and slimmer..

I am not trying to create fud.. I am merely sharing what I see on the charts.. Right now what I see most likely happening is what I've drawn on the chart.. We might see a strong bounce of this Yellow support line but ultimately fail to breach the white resistance thus printing a new lower high, come back down, and print lower highs and lower lows to trace that white diagonal support trend.. I think going down to that range lows on the very bottom horizontal yellow support is inevitable for the alts..

But there is a silver lining here.. Once we go that low, I think there is almost a certainty that we will get a very strong recovery just how it did in the past and now get that Alt season we are waiting for.. However, before we get what we want, we must go to where we don't wanna go..

📊 Bitcoin/Crypto Investors 📊, take note! This chart from Glassnode shows the BTC Entity-Adjusted Relative Unrealized Pro...
29/05/2025

📊 Bitcoin/Crypto Investors 📊, take note!

This chart from Glassnode shows the BTC Entity-Adjusted Relative Unrealized Profit from 2016 to 2025.

The orange line represents the unrealized profit, while the black line tracks BTC’s price in USD (right axis). Notice how the profit metric often peaks above +2σ (red line) during major bull runs—like in 2017, 2021, and recently in 2025! When it dips below the mean (black dashed line) or -1σ (green line), it often signals a buying opportunity during bear markets.
Right now, we’re above +2σ, indicating high unrealized profits—potentially a sign of market euphoria.

What would you do given this data? 🚀 Personally, I would take those spot bags and start entering those limit sell orders.

Is there a correlation between the Bitcoin Risk Bands and the Crypto Fear and Greed Index to Predict a Cycle top?Risk Ba...
26/05/2025

Is there a correlation between the Bitcoin Risk Bands and the Crypto Fear and Greed Index to Predict a Cycle top?

Risk Bands (0.5–0.6) and Fear & Greed (73):
The 0.5–0.6 risk band reflects a prolonged period of elevated risk, often associated with overbought conditions or market exuberance. Historically, Bitcoin spending significant time in higher risk bands (0.5 and above) can precede corrections, as it may indicate the market is overextended.

The Fear & Greed Index at 73 (Greed) complements this, as high greed levels often correlate with overbought markets. Historically, Fear & Greed values above 70–75 have sometimes preceded pullbacks, as excessive optimism can lead to profit-taking or market corrections.

Correlation Between the Two Metrics:
Both metrics suggest a market that’s in a state of heightened risk and optimism. The Risk Bands focus on statistical risk based on historical price behavior, while the Fear & Greed Index captures market sentiment through factors like volatility, momentum, and social media activity.

When Risk Bands are in the 0.7–0.8 range and the Fear & Greed Index is in the Extreme Greed zone (above 75), it often signals a potential peak in market sentiment and price. For example, during past Bitcoin bull runs (like late 2017 or late 2021), high Fear & Greed Index values often coincided with elevated risk levels, followed by massive price corrections.

Is time to Exit the Market?The chart shows Bitcoin (BTC) Time Spent in Risk Bands, with BTC currently in the 0.5–0.6 ris...
26/05/2025

Is time to Exit the Market?

The chart shows Bitcoin (BTC) Time Spent in Risk Bands, with BTC currently in the 0.5–0.6 risk band (confidence level: 9) for 650 days. This indicates a relatively high-risk period, as the 0.5–0.6 band is on the higher end of the risk spectrum.

Historically, Bitcoin tends to spend more time in the 0.3–0.5 risk bands (as seen by the taller bars), suggesting that the current 0.5–0.6 band might indicate overextension or a potential correction. However, the chart alone doesn’t definitively signal an exit; it suggests caution.

At this juncture, we may very well be in the last leg of the bull cycle for Bitcoin (Unless a drastic change in the Fed Monetary Policy takes place).

I have personally started exiting the market especially on those low cap tokens to ensure I secure some form of profits but most importantly protect my capital.

Whether to exit the market depends on your risk tolerance and other market factors (e.g., price trends, macroeconomic conditions). The chart implies an elevated risk, so it might be a good time to reassess your position, but I’d recommend considering additional data like price action or market sentiment before deciding on the best course of action for your investment goals.

🚨WARNING🚨 Alt Season Cancelled❓️Alt/BTC pairs have just put in their lowest weekly close this cycle. Does this mean we a...
26/05/2025

🚨WARNING🚨 Alt Season Cancelled❓️

Alt/BTC pairs have just put in their lowest weekly close this cycle.

Does this mean we are not going to get that face melting gains from those juicy alt bags we accumulated from 2023 onwards?

I'm not saying we aren't getting an Alt Season, but surely the odds of not getting one are stacking up.

For an alt season to begin in the current macro environment, several catalysts need to align to drive capital into altcoins.

Here’s what to watch for:

● Monetary Policy Shift: Central banks, especially the Fed, need to adopt a more dovish stance. This could mean rate cuts or renewed quantitative easing (QE), increasing liquidity. Altcoins thrive on cheap money, as it encourages risk-taking. Right now, the Fed’s hawkish tone is a headwind.

● Bitcoin Dominance Drop: Bitcoin dominance needs to decline from its current levels (historically around 50-60% during alt season setups). A BTC rally often precedes alt seasons, but once BTC stabilizes or corrects, capital flows into alts. Look for BTC to hit a new all-time high, followed by a dip in dominance below 50%.

● Improved Global Risk Sentiment: Geopolitical tensions (e.g., Ukraine, Middle East) and trade conflicts (US tariffs at historic highs per IMF reports) are stifling risk appetite. A de-escalation of these issues, or a resolution to trade disputes, could boost confidence in risk assets like altcoins.

● Crypto-Specific Catalysts: Major developments in the crypto space can spark interest. Examples include:

○ Ethereum or Layer-2 Upgrades: Significant updates (e.g., scaling solutions, lower gas fees) could drive interest in ETH and related alts.

○ Regulatory Clarity: Positive regulatory news, like the US approving clearer crypto frameworks, could attract institutional money.

○ Adoption Milestones: Big companies or governments adopting altcoins for payments or infrastructure (e.g., Solana for DeFi, Cardano for real-world use cases) would draw attention.

● Macro Economic Stabilization: Global growth needs to pick up—current forecasts (US GDP at 1.9%, eurozone at 0.8%, per IMF) are sluggish. A rebound in growth, or a drop in inflation below the current 3.4% (UN data), could ease pressure on risk assets. A weaker US dollar, driven by policy shifts, would also help by making altcoins more attractive to international investors.

● Market Sentiment and Retail FOMO: On-chain data showing increased retail activity (e.g., higher wallet addresses, social media buzz on X) often signals the start of an alt season. A trigger like a meme coin surge (e.g., DOGE or SHIB) can pull retail investors in, spreading capital to other alts.

As of the moment, each of these catalysts for an Alt Season hasn't been met. So be cautious out there. Protect your capital. Those that call for an alt season each week may sound confident and contrarian, but altcoins have been bleeding to Bitcoin almost non-stop since 2021.

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