16/09/2024
TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 1
Tropical Depression
Issued at 8:00 AM, 16 September 2024
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 11:00 AM today.
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA EAST OF AURORA HAS DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION “GENER”
• Location of Center (7:00 AM)
The center of Tropical Depression GENER was estimated based on all available data at 315 km East Northeast of Casiguran, Aurora (16.9°N, 125.0°E)
• Intensity
Maximum sustained winds of 45 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 55 km/h, and central pressure of 998 hPa
• Present Movement
West northwestward at 10 km/h
• Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds
Strong winds extend outwards up to 360 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
• TCWS No. 1
○ Wind threat: Strong winds
○ Warning lead time: 36 hours
○ Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)
○ Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
LUZON:
The eastern and central portions of Mainland Cagayan (Piat, Santo Niño, Camalaniugan, Tuao, Lal-Lo, Enrile, Gonzaga, Alcala, Amulung, Santa Teresita, Baggao, Buguey, Solana, Rizal, Santa Ana, Tuguegarao City, Gattaran, Peñablanca, Iguig, Lasam, Aparri, Ballesteros, Allacapan, Abulug), Isabela, Quirino, the eastern portion of Nueva Vizcaya (Alfonso Castaneda, Kasibu, Dupax del Norte, Quezon, Diadi, Bayombong, Ambaguio, Bagabag, Villaverde, Aritao, Bambang, Dupax del Sur, Solano), the eastern and southern portions of Apayao (Conner, Flora, Pudtol, Santa Marcela, Luna, Kabugao), Kalinga, the eastern and central portions of Mountain Province (Paracelis, Sadanga, Bontoc, Natonin, Sabangan, Barlig), Ifugao, Aurora, the eastern portion of Nueva Ecija (Carranglan, Pantabangan, Bongabon, Gabaldon, Laur, General Tinio, Rizal, General Mamerto Natividad, Palayan City), and the northern portion of Mainland Quezon (General Nakar, Infanta, Real) including Polillo Islands.
OTHER HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall Outlook
Refer to Weather Advisory No. 18 issued at 8:00 AM today for the heavy rainfall outlook due to the Southwest Monsoon and Tropical Depression GENER.
Severe Winds
The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.
• Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.
The Southwest Monsoon enhanced by GENER and “PULASAN” will also bring strong to gale-force gusts over the following areas (especially in coastal and upland areas exposed to winds):
• Today: MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, Caraga, and Davao Region.
• Tomorrow (17 September): MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, Caraga, and Davao Region.
• Wednesday (18 September): MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, Caraga, and Davao Region.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
Gale Warning is in effect over the western and southern seaboards of Southern Luzon, the seaboards of Visayas, and the western, northern, and eastern seaboards of Mindanao. Sea travel is risky for small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas. For more information, refer to Gale Warning No. 4 issued at 5:00 AM this morning.
24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook
• Moderate to rough seas over the following coastal waters:
• 1.5 to 3.5 m: The seaboards of Northern Luzon, the seaboards of Central Luzon, and the eastern seaboards of Southern Luzon.
• Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under these conditions, especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels.
• Up to moderate seas over the following coastal waters:
• Up to 2.5 m: The remaining seaboards of the country outside Gale Warning areas.
• Mariners of motorbancas and similarly-sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigation under these conditions.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• GENER is forecast to move generally west to west southwest until Wednesday afternoon (18 September) before turning west northwestward to northwestward for the rest of the forecast period. It is forecast to make landfall on either Isabela or Aurora within the next 24 hours. On the track forecast, GENER may exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility by Wednesday. Outside PAR, GENER is forecast to make landfall over Hainan, China by Friday late evening to Saturday early morning.
• GENER is likely to experience limited intensification over the next two days but is expected to reach Tropical Storm category by Wednesday after emerging over the West Philippine Sea. It is forecast to maintain a Tropical Storm intensity before weakening into a Tropical Depression prior to landfall in Hainan, China. Due to its proximity with Luzon landmass, changes in intensity and track are likely while crossing Luzon.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 11:00 AM today.
DOST-PAGASA
Link: tinyurl.com/tcgener
