16/10/2025
TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 1
Tropical Depression
Issued at 5:00 AM, 17 October 2025
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 11:00 AM today.
THE LOW PRESSURE EAST OF SOUTHEASTERN LUZON DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION RAMIL.
• Location of Center (4:00 AM)
The center of Tropical Depression RAMIL was estimated based on all available data at 1,145 km East of Southeastern Luzon (14.4°N, 132.3°E).
• Intensity
Maximum sustained winds of 45 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 55 km/h, and central pressure of 1004 hPa
• Present Movement
West northwestward slowly
• Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds
Strong winds extend outwards up to 350 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No. 1
➣ Wind threat: Strong winds
➣ Warning lead time: 36 hours
➣ Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)
➣ Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
LUZON:
The easternmost portion of Quezon (Tagkawayan), Camarines Norte, Catanduanes, Camarines Sur, Albay, and the northern and eastern portions of Sorsogon (Donsol, Pilar, Castilla, City of Sorsogon, Gubat, Prieto Diaz, Casiguran, Barcelona, Bulusan)
VISAYAS:
The eastern portion of Northern Samar (Laoang, Catubig, Palapag, Mapanas, Gamay, Lapinig, Pambujan, San Roque)
OTHER HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
➣ Heavy Rainfall Outlook
Refer to Weather Advisory No. 1 issued at 5:00 AM today for the heavy rainfall outlook due to Tropical Cyclone RAMIL. Link: tinyurl.com/wxadvisory
➣ Severe Winds
The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.
• Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.
The highest Wind Signal that will likely be hoisted throughout its passage is Wind Signal No. 2. However, the possibility of reaching severe tropical storm category before landfall is not ruled out, the worst case scenario is Wind Signal No. 3.
Furthermore the periphery of RAMIL and the easterlies will also bring strong to gale-force gusts over the following areas not under Wind Signal (especially in coastal and upland areas exposed to winds):
• Today: Cagayan Valley, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Aurora, Quezon including Polillo Islands, Sorsogon, Marinduque, Mindoro Provinces, Masbate, and Northern Samar.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
• Gale Warning may be raised over the northern seaboard of Eastern Visayas and the seaboards of Southern Luzon this afternoon or tomorrow (18 October) morning in anticipation of rough to very rough sea conditions.
➣ 24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook
Up to rough seas over the following coastal waters:
• Up to 4.0 m: The northern and eastern seaboards of Catanduanes; the northern seaboard of Camarines Sur
• Up to 3.5 m: The rest of the seaboards of Catanduanes; and the northern seaboard of Northern Samar
• Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under these conditions, especially if inexperienced of operating ill-equipped vessels.
Up to moderate to rough seas over the following coastal waters:
• Up to 2.5 m: The seaboards of Batanes, Babuyan Islands, mainland Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora, Quezon including Polillo Islands, and Camarines Norte; the eastern seaboards of Albay and Sorsogon; the rest of the seaboards of Camarines Sur; the northwestern seaboard of Ilocos Norte; the northeastern seaboard of Eastern Samar; the eastern seaboard of Northern Samar
• Mariners of motorbancas and similarly sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigation under these conditions.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• It must be emphasized that heavy rainfall, severe winds, and storm surge may still be experienced in localities outside the landfall point and the forecast confidence cone. Refer to “Other Hazards affecting Land Areas” for more details. Furthermore, the track may still shift within the limit of the forecast confidence cone.
• RAMIL is forecast to move generally westward until tomorrow before turning west northwestward towards the area of Central-Southern Luzon. On the forecast track, the center of RAMIL may pass close Catanduanes tomorrow (18 October) morning or afternoon and may make landfall in Aurora or Quezon by Sunday (19 October) morning or afternoon. A southward shift of the track could lead to a different landfall area and more inclusion of localities under Wind Signal. After landfall, RAMIL may traverse the rugged terrain of Northern or Central Luzon and will emerge over the West Philippine Sea by Sunday afternoon or evening and exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility by Monday (20 October) morning.
DOST-PAGASA
Link: tinyurl.com/RamilPH
