28/04/2023
𝑶𝑷𝑰𝑵𝑰𝑶𝑵 𝐁𝐘 𝐍𝐀𝐕𝐄𝐄𝐃 𝐀𝐇𝐌𝐄𝐃 𝐌𝐈𝐑`
🎀 𝗪𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗜𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗮 𝗯𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗻𝗲𝘅𝘁 𝗖𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗮? 🎀 `
𝘐𝘯𝘥𝘪𝘢'𝘴 𝘶𝘱𝘸𝘢𝘳𝘥 𝘦𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘰𝘮𝘪𝘤 𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘫𝘦𝘤𝘵𝘰𝘳𝘺 𝘵𝘳𝘪𝘨𝘨𝘦𝘳𝘴 𝘯𝘦𝘸 𝘥𝘦𝘣𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘴 𝘪𝘯 𝘗𝘢𝘬𝘪𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘯: 𝘐𝘴 𝘪𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘯𝘦𝘹𝘵 𝘊𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘢? 𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘤𝘰𝘶𝘯𝘵𝘳𝘺 𝘴𝘵𝘪𝘭𝘭 𝘧𝘢𝘤𝘦𝘴 𝘮𝘢𝘫𝘰𝘳 𝘩𝘶𝘳𝘥𝘭𝘦𝘴 𝘪𝘯 𝘣𝘦𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘯𝘦𝘹𝘵 𝘮𝘢𝘯𝘶𝘧𝘢𝘤𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘨𝘪𝘢𝘯𝘵 𝘥𝘶𝘦 𝘵𝘰 𝘪𝘵𝘴 𝘦𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘰𝘮𝘪𝘤 𝘴𝘺𝘴𝘵𝘦𝘮, 𝘸𝘰𝘳𝘬 𝘤𝘶𝘭𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘦, 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘱𝘰𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘭 𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘶𝘤𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘦.
𝐈𝐧 𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭 𝐨𝐟 𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬, India has been experiencing new developments within the region. This has triggered new debates among the neighboring countries, especially in Pakistan. The netizens are incessantly tweeting, reposting, and sharing videos regarding the new Apple retail outlets in India. People in Pakistan are questioning: as India keeps moving upward on the economic chart, has Pakistan taken any concrete steps towards improving the economic conditions? As inflation has been getting out of control, the masses are struggling to afford basic amenities. The economic indicators are nowhere to be found to salvage the common man. Affluents are busy siphoning money, establishment is busy in whom to hand over power, and politicians are chiding one another, who is more corrupt and inept, while paying zero heed to the notion of improving impoverished masses.
According to some estimates, around 6.205 million people in Pakistan will remain unemployed during the current year 2023. The State Bank of Pakistan’s forex reserves (4.406 billion USD) as of 28 April are insufficient to even cover a few months of imports.
While western countries are debating whether India will be the next China, India has been set to emulate China in demography by mid-2023. Many people in the West are asking if India is a substitute for China. As far as production is concerned, producing inexpensive products for the developed countries (LDs), India can do wonders. But in the longer run, India will be unable to cater to the demands of the world in terms of its quality due to a lack of advanced technologies and an innovative work culture. India’s economy was not shaped the way China’s economy was shaped in 1990. The real problem lies within the economic system of India. There are comparatively no major industrial cities fabricated while China has built a huge city, Shenzhen, thirty-three years ago. China has achieved astounding developments in technology, on the contrary, India has been lagging behind in this area. There are not enough jobs in India that can catch up with the growth of China. The industrial services and agriculture sector of India has been stuck around 14 to 15 percent growth rate, while China has twice the growth rate for a long time. The small manufacturing and informal economic sector in India has been the biggest hurdle in becoming the next China.
Now, many people would argue that India’s vast number of young people aging 20 to 40 are entering the workforce, which attracts investments. On the contrary, China has been experiencing a population decline as a result of China’s one-child policy. There are not enough jobs for the young people in the manufacturing industry, and the world has been looking at other options to shift outsourcing the manufacturing of products and services to other countries, such as Bangladesh, Laos, the Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, and other countries in the ASEAN, as China’s cost of labor spikes. Meanwhile, if foreign companies like Amazon, Walmart, and others try to establish themselves in the Indian market, they face serious challenges resulting from the close liaison of politicians, which puts foreign companies at a disadvantage with local companies. The big local companies seek the support of the government, and foreign companies are unable to compete with them. The second biggest problem faced by India is that 80 percent of women are out of the workforce, while China’s 60 percent population is working, comparatively high to the rest of the world. The work culture in India is totally different from globally. Women in India are mostly employed in informal economic sectors, such as working on farms, in agriculture, and staying at home. This indicates that women are at the end of the line to enter into formal jobs. In fact, as India has gotten richer, the participation of women has plummeted. The third problem in the way of India becoming the next China is the political system of India, the biggest democracy in the world, while China is not a democratic country. Both independent states' inception started in 1947 and 1949, respectively. China has become a consolidated communist authoritarian state, and India remained a secular democratic state prior to the arrival of PM Modi. Therefore, both states have different processes in gathering information, dispensation, and executing decisions. These things matter while establishing new projects, for instance, Land Reforms. In China, the government owns every land and can decide at any time to allocate land for particular projects, while in India, politicians wheedle around and prioritize the projects, which takes forever to establish any projects. Another difference between China and India has been working hours. In China, people work ceaselessly for eight to ten hours a day, while in India, every work ethic has been broken down.
The government of Modi in the past nine years has been impressed by the progress of Xi-Jinping and seems envious. Hence, Modi has commenced to consolidate power to achieve high economic growth by all means. Whether Modi has to buy members of the opposition, a lot of businesses, newspapers, companies are owned by Modi's cronies, consequently helping to boost Modi's image, and numerous institutions have gone out of space and are standing at crossroads. They are often censured and put out of business through raids and cut off investments by force. The ideology of the Modi government is consolidating power and promoting Hindu nationalization, depriving Muslim minorities of their rights. Although it does not pose any threat to the economic development of India, liberals decry that it puts India into hot water, making it difficult to defend itself in the international arena. The ethnic division in India has been rapidly growing over the past years, as evident by Khalsa movements in Punjab and other parts of India. The ambiance of the country has been deteriorated, putting a halt on economic development.
However, the world dynamics have been altered. The world is no longer the same as it was in 1990, and what China did back then, India cannot do now. It entails enormous paradigm shifts. Currently, manufacturing is less important to the world than it was back in 1990. The services sector, which was once seen as the lowest service, is now plausible to operate from anywhere in the world due to the availability of the internet. Nonetheless, with all the challenges faced by India, the prospect of the country achieving tremendous growth in upcoming years cannot surpass China unless the earlier mentioned things are addressed in a proper manner.
