22/04/2025
Recording Sybridcast today on 𝗧𝗿𝘂𝗺𝗽’𝘀 𝘁𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗳𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘁—paused for 90 days but potentially costing Pakistan $1.5 billion. Experts propose we counter the 𝗨.𝗦.’𝘀 $𝟯.𝟱𝟭 𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲 𝗱𝗲𝗳𝗶𝗰𝗶𝘁 with us by sourcing all our cotton and soybeans (and few more items)—estimated at $3 billion annually—from the U.S. to dodge tariffs. Sounds like a quick fix, but is it a 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗰 𝗯𝗹𝘂𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗿?
Let’s break it down. Pakistan’s $28.8 billion export economy leans heavily on the 𝗘𝗨 ($𝟵.𝟬𝟭 𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻, 𝟯𝟭.𝟯%) and 𝗨.𝗦. ($𝟱.𝟲𝟭 𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻, 𝟭𝟵.𝟱%) in 2024. The EU, our top trading partner with $14.1 billion in trade ($9.01 billion exports, $5.09 billion imports), delivers a $𝟯.𝟵𝟮 𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗽𝗹𝘂𝘀. The U.S. lags with $7.3 billion in trade and a $3.51 billion surplus.
Our $3.2 billion IT exports? Over half ($1.74 billion) go to the U.S., while the EU gets $640 million and the Middle East just $192 million. Africa and South/Central Asia? 𝗩𝗶𝗿𝘁𝘂𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 𝘂𝗻𝘁𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗲𝗱. The IT exports to U.S in percentage is huge, but is it also a risk? — over half our IT eggs in one basket.
The media loves to crown the U.S. as our top partner, but the EU’s trade volume and surplus scream opportunity. Why aren’t we pushing exports—textiles, IT, and more—into the EU’s GSP+ market or the Middle East’s growing economies? Why ignore Africa’s potential or regional trade with South/Central Asia, where costs are lower and ties stronger?
𝗔𝗿𝗲 𝗧𝗵𝗲𝘀𝗲 𝘁𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗳𝗳𝘀 𝗮 𝘄𝗮𝗸𝗲-𝘂𝗽 𝗰𝗮𝗹𝗹? Should we keep betting on one market when we can grow exports to the EU’s GSP+ market, the Middle East’s (growing) tech hub, or Africa’s emerging economies? Why not boost regional trade in South/Central Asia? Diversifying exports—textiles, IT, and beyond—into the EU, Middle East, Africa, and Asia isn’t optional; it’s survival.
What’s your take? Thoughts?
Saad Mir
*read Africa as others in graph
