The Weather Enthusiast

04/07/2022

Weather Update - 04/07/2022 - 3:00 PM

NOWCASTING:
- Strong intensity thunderstorms E/NE of Karachi. The eastern vicinity of the city is already engulfed in rain. Moderate to heavy intensity rainfall likely to soon expand on to other parts of the city as well.

The Weather Enthusiast.

03/07/2022

Weather Update - 03/07/2022 - 1:00 AM

NOWCASTING:
- Developments that began E/SE of Karachi have now matured and progressed towards the city. Different part of the city likely to be engulfed light to moderate intensity showers/rainfall soon and during upcoming hours.

The Weather Enthusiast.

03/07/2022

Weather Update - 03/07/2022 - 22:30 PM

NOWCASTING:
- Weak developments happening over E/SE Karachi. Some chances of light to moderate intensity rainfall/showers during upcoming hours in eastern & southern parts of the city.

Will update if the situation progresses.

The Weather Enthusiast.

23/06/2022

Weather Update - 23/06/2022 - 5:30 PM

NOWCASTING:
- Weak thunderstorm development activity N/NW of Karachi. Convergence over the city has stopped. Very low chances of any rainfall during evening hours.

Will update if there are any new developments later during the evening.

The Weather Enthusiast.

23/06/2022

Weather Update - 23/06/2022 - 15:30 PM

NOWCASTING:
- Weak thunderstorm development activity is taking place over SE Balochistan, N/NW of Karachi, as well as some localized activity over the city of Karachi. Fair chances (50%) of scattered light to moderate intensity rainfall in different parts of the city in the evening hours.

I will update if there are any further developments. People are advised to plan their return from offices and work accordingly.

The Weather Enthusiast.

22/06/2022

Weather Update - 22/09/2022 - 20:30 PM

Karachi and lower Sindh have gotten their first spell of Pre-Monsoon rains.

The spell has caused city-wide moderate to heavy intensity rainfall and has come to a close now. Light rain may continue in different parts of the city during the next 1 - 2 hours.

The system is currently active over lower Sindh. I will update if there are any developments in the upcoming hours.

The Weather Enthusiast.

24/05/2022

Not A Weather Alert 😝:

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01/10/2021

Weather Update - 1/10/2021 - 11:30 AM

Over the last 24 hours the remants of Cyclone 'Gulab' have intensified into Cyclone 'Shaheen' in the Northwest Arabian Sea.

Despite this intensification and at odds with the expectation, the cyclonic storm did not move Northwestward as anticipated, but has maintained a Westward movement during the past 24 hours, which has kept Karachi & coastal Sindh out of its cone of influence by a short margin.

Over the next 24 hours the storm is expected to move Northwestward towards the Makran-Coast region nearing the Pak-Iran border, possibly intensifying into a 'severe cyclonic storm'. Sindh coast will largely remain out of the storms circle of influence from now on.

Overview:

- Light to moderate intensity showers, with isolated heavy falls can be expected in parts of Karachi, Nooriabad, Thatta, Badin, Keti Bandar and adjoining areas over the next 24 hours.

- Moderate to heavy intensity rainfall, with isolated very heavy falls can be expected along the western Makran coast - Ormara, Pasni, Gwadar & adjoining areas over the next 48 hours.

Will keep you all posted if there are any other surprises 😛.

The Weather Enthusiast.

29/09/2021

Weather Update - 29/9/2021 - 11:15 PM

The tropical storm 'Gulab' has begun impacting parts of coastal + lower Sindh. The core of the system currently lies over Indian Gujarat and will move to sea near the Pakistani coastline over the next 12 hours while gaining intensity in the process.

NOWCASTING:
- Strong intensity thunderstorms over Thatta, Keti Bandar, and adjoining areas.
- Moderate intensity rainfall across Badin, southeastern Thar and adjoining areas.
- Karachi may also experience a thunderstorm during the upcoming hours.

29/09/2021

Weather Alert! - 29/9/2021 - 3:00 PM

The remnants of Cyclone 'Gulab' currently lie as a 'well-marked' low pressure area over western India (near Gujarat). Over the next 24 hours this 'well-marked' low pressure will move over to the Arabian Sea approaching the Pakistani coastline near Kutch. There is a high probability that this system will *intensify* into a *depression* during the period. The system may also further intensify into a *weak cyclonic storm* due to strong support from the Arabian Sea over the subsequent 24 hours (however, this will be more clear tomorrow).

Overview:

Under the influence of this system/storm heavy to at times very heavy rains with strong winds are expected along the lower + coastal Sindh & Balochistan over the next 3 days, peaking on Friday & Saturday.

Karachi, Nooriabad Thatta, Badin, Keti Bandar, Hub, cities of Thar, coastal Balochistan and adjoining areas may cross 100mm+ in this spell.

All authorities are advised to remain vigilant. People are advised to stay indoors during these 3 days and plan their chores & responsibilities in accordance. I will try to keep updating as the situation progresses. Indeed Allah knows the best.


The Weather Enthusiast.

28/09/2021

Weather Alert - 28/9/2021 - 1:00 PM

Earlier this week Cyclone 'Gulab' battered the East Indian coast as a category 1 storm. Over the past 48 hours it has progressed along the central Indian Subcontinent weakening into a *deep depression*. It is projected that over the next 48 hours the storm will move north-westwards, approaching the Pakistani coastline as a *well-marked* low pressure (a relatively weaker rain system, but still could lead to significant rains in the region).

Overview:

Under the influence of this system/storm there is a *high chance* of moderate to heavy intensity rainfall in lower + coastal Sindh & Balochistan over the week and specially between Wednesday and Saturday. People are advised to stay vigilant during this period.

The system/storm poses no immediate threat, however with strong convection present in the region there are indicators that suggest the possibility of this system/storm's *re-intensification* upon reaching the Arabian sea. This will be further clarified over the next 24 hours, and I will try to keep you updated accordingly.

Details:

Usually when we observe such cyclonic storms or monsoon systems, different weather models can show significantly different outcomes about the system/storm's track and intensity. What is unique in this particular case is that all reputed weather models (ECMWF, GFS, ICON etc) show similar consistency in track (which runs close by the Pakistani coastline) and intensity. If this remains the case over the next 24 hours, then there may be some cause for concern and precaution.

16/07/2021

Weather Update - 16/07/2021 - 5:00 PM

Monsoon in full-swing across lower Sindh!

NOWCASTING:
- Thunderstorms continue to develop over the skies of Karachi. Good chances of light to moderate intensity rainfall in upcoming hours.

- Strong intensity thunderstorm squall line extending from Hub Dam to Dadu along the Kirthar mountain range.

- Strong intensity thunderstorm over Keti Bandar

- Moderate intensity thunderstorms SE of Hyderabad, nearing Nooriabad/Thatta. Fair chances of light to moderate intensity rainfall in aforementioned areas during upcoming hours.

The Weather Enthusiast.