16/05/2026
Monsoon Likely to Arrive Early This Year: IMD Forecasts Kerala Onset Around May 26
For millions across the country, the arrival of the monsoon marks much more than a change in weather. It brings relief from scorching summer temperatures, replenishes reservoirs, supports agriculture and sets the tone for food prices, rural incomes and overall economic activity.
Kerala Monsoon
The IMD noted that the forecast carries an uncertainty margin of four days on either side. In practical terms, the monsoon could make landfall in Kerala anytime between May 22 and May 30.
IMD and Skymet Weather Forecast Indicates Weaker Southwest Monsoon
The possibility of an early onset comes against an unusual backdrop. Both the IMD and private weather forecaster Skymet Weather Services have indicated that the 2026 southwest monsoon season may be weaker than normal.
El Nino Impact on Rainfall in India: Will Farmers and Reservoirs Be Hit in 2026?
The key concern is the development of El Nino, a warming of Pacific Ocean waters that often disrupts rainfall patterns over India. El Nino years are typically associated with reduced monsoon rainfall, which can affect crop production, water availability and hydroelectric generation.
In other words, the monsoon may arrive early, but that does not guarantee abundant rainfall throughout the season.
Why the Kerala Monsoon Matters So Much
The onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala is considered the official beginning of India's rainy season. OThe IMD noted that the forecast carries an uncertainty margin of four days on either side. In practical terms, the monsoon could make landfall in Kerala anytime between May 22 and May 30.