01/10/2025
Seychelles 2025 Election Analysis: Democracy's Delightful Drama
by Gilbert Pool - GPS Seychelles
The Masterstroke of a Whimsical Artist with a Sense of Humour
What a masterstroke by a whimsical artist with a sense of humour!
The Seychellois electorate has delivered a political canvas so exquisitely balanced, so deliciously uncertain, that even the most seasoned observers can only marvel at the artistry.
With Patrick Herminie capturing 48.8% against Wavel Ramkalawan's 46.4%, the people have orchestrated something rather magical: completely flipping the table in the National Assembly while sending the two principal protagonists into a runoff that promises to be one of the most captivating political spectacles the archipelago has ever witnessed.
This runoff might bring down the stay-at-homes in a rallying call for Ramkalawan's LDS coalition, energized by the urgency of defending their gains. But equally, it could bring together all those who voted for smaller parties—now with a second chance to ditch the incumbent and embrace change.
Fate lies in the hands of the wonderful, playful, whimsical artist: the Seychellois people, who are thoroughly enjoying their true role as kingmaker, dealmaker, and destiny-shaper.
Herminie's Phoenix: Old Guard, New Energy
Patrick Herminie's remarkable resurgence reads like a political thriller where the veteran protagonist refuses to accept retirement. The United Seychelles Party, relegated to opposition just five years ago, has roared back with surprising vigor. Herminie himself—seasoned, connected, and armed with decades of institutional knowledge—has positioned himself as the steady hand Seychelles needs in choppy economic waters.
His campaign struck gold by focusing relentlessly on kitchen-table economics: housing costs that make young couples despair, grocery bills that climb faster than the coconut palms, and the gnawing sense that Seychelles' impressive GDP statistics somehow bypass ordinary households. The people, often feeling like afterthoughts in LDS's development plans, responded enthusiastically to his message. Herminie didn't just campaign; he conducted a symphony of economic anxiety and turned it into electoral momentum.
Ramkalawan's Puzzle: Success Without Satisfaction
President Ramkalawan finds himself in that peculiar political predicament where genuine achievements fail to translate into electoral enthusiasm.
His administration navigated COVID-19 admirably, revived the crucial tourism sector, and maintained economic stability. Yet voters, with that characteristic impatience of democracies everywhere, responded with a collective shrug.
The problem wasn't incompetence but inspiration—or the lack thereof. Ramkalawan's questionable technocratic performance, proved less electrifying on the campaign trail than Herminie's populist promises of immediate relief.
His message of continuity met an electorate hungry for transformation. Sometimes in politics, doing a decent job with the infrastructure and social reforms simply isn't enough when voters smell the possibility of something better.
The National Assembly: The Democratic Kaleidoscope
The National Assembly results have produced a delightfully fragmented parliament where nobody gets to play emperor, although LDS has lost a number of key seats to US which now commands the majority.
The sophisticated electoral system—combining constituency seats with proportional representation—has created a legislature that will demand consensus, consultation, and actual politics rather than rubber-stamping. Smaller parties and independent candidates have emerged as crucial players, their support necessary for any legislative agenda.
This fragmentation represents democratic maturity in action. Seychellois voters have demonstrated remarkable sophistication, splitting their tickets based on candidate quality and local considerations rather than tribal party loyalty.
The era of comfortable majorities appears over, replaced by something somewhat messier, more complicated, and ultimately healthier for democratic governance.
Economic Realities trump Political Abstractions
Despite Seychelles ranking as Africa's wealthiest nation per capita, many citizens experience a disconnect between macroeconomic success and microeconomic struggle.
Small island economies come with inherent cost pressures: imported goods carry premium prices, housing remains scarce and expensive, and young people increasingly question whether they can afford their future in paradise.
Both candidates recognized these pressures, but their solutions diverged dramatically. Ramkalawan's emphasis on sustainable development and questionable environmental stewardship seemed abstract to voters calculating whether they could afford next month's rent.
Herminie's direct promises regarding price controls and housing subsidies—regardless of their long-term feasibility—offered something more immediate: hope.
Environmental Politics and the Assumption Island Controversy
Environmental issues proved surprisingly potent in this campaign, reflecting Seychelles' vulnerable position as a small island state confronting climate change. But nothing crystallized environmental and sovereignty concerns quite like the Assumption Island affair.
The current government's controversial handling of leasing Assumption Island to Qatar for tourism development became a lightning rod for public anger, symbolizing perceived recklessness with the nation's patrimony.
The Assumption Island controversy transcended simple environmentalism, touching raw nerves about sovereignty, foreign influence, and whether politicians could be trusted as guardians of Seychelles' future.
Herminie skillfully exploited these concerns, positioning himself as the candidate who would defend national interests against questionable foreign entanglements. The issue reminded voters that in a nation of 115 islands, each piece of land carries profound symbolic and practical significance.
The Runoff Calculus: Everything to Play For
Herminie enters the runoff with momentum and the psychological advantage of first-round victory. His campaign demonstrated superior organization and message discipline, while his challenger status allows continued attacks on the incumbent's record.
His task now: consolidate the anti-government sentiment and convince third-party voters that he represents genuine change rather than nostalgic regression.
Ramkalawan faces the more complex challenge: expanding his appeal without alienating core supporters, defending his record without appearing defensive, and generating enthusiasm among voters who may have wandered to minor candidates.
He must transform from embattled incumbent to energized reformer, convincing the electorate that his second term would bring the transformation his first term promised but didn't quite deliver. Many quitters have pointed out that they have problems with tje leadership, who have been seen to have fattened themselves, and not the party per se.
The stay-at-homes from the first round become crucial wild cards. Will they emerge to defend Ramkalawan's government, energized by the threat of its potential demise? Or will they join forces with disappointed third-party voters, seizing their second chance to sweep the incumbent aside?
Democratic Artistry in Motion
Perhaps the election's greatest achievement lies in what it reveals about Seychellois democracy itself.
The peaceful campaign, the orderly vote, the acceptance of results, and the smooth transition toward the runoff all showcase institutional strength rare anywhere, let alone in a small island state.
The reasonably high turnout and genuine competitiveness demonstrate a political culture where power truly flows from the people.
The Seychellois electorate has emerged as the star performer—sophisticated, engaged, and clearly relishing its role as ultimate arbiter. Like a masterful artist, it has crafted a political moment that demands attention, forces accountability, and ensures that whoever emerges victorious will govern with a clear understanding that power remains provisional, contingent, and always subject to the people's judgment.
Conclusion: The Canvas Awaits Its Final Brushstrokes
As Seychelles prepares for its decisive runoff, the nation has delivered a masterclass in democratic possibility.
The fragmented National Assembly ensures collaborative governance, while the tight presidential race guarantees that every vote in the runoff will carry weight. The electorate's message rings clear: deliver meaningful change or face consequences.
This whimsical, wonderful, slightly mischievous political drama showcases small-state democracy at its finest.
The Seychellois people, armed with ballots and blessed with genuine choice, have reminded the world that democracy isn't just about institutions and procedures—it's about citizens exercising power with creativity, sophistication, and occasionally, delightful unpredictability.
The final act awaits. The artist—the Seychellois people—has prepared the canvas beautifully. Now comes the decisive brushstroke that will complete this remarkable democratic masterpiece.
