23/09/2025
Prediction on the Outcome of the Election
Two candidates, Mr. W***y Angok Ngor and Mr. Kur Bol Kur are contesting for leadership of the Twic Mayardit Youth Association for Development in Juba.
Based on the distribution of support across payams, Mr. W***y Angok has strong backing in three payams—Akoc, Panyok, and Ajak Kuac—while Mr. Kur Bol Kur enjoys overwhelming support in Turalei, Aweng, and Wunrok.
According to the registration summary, Akoc Payam registered 167 members, Panyok Payam 156, and Ajak Kuac 55, making a total of 378 registered members for Mr. W***y Angok’s strongholds. On the other hand, Turalei registered 267 members, Aweng 273, and Wunrok 526, giving Mr. Kur Bol Kur a commanding total of 1,066 registered members from his three strongholds.
With a total of 1,445 registered voters, the numbers clearly favor Mr. Kur Bol Kur. The margin of support indicates that the outcome is almost certain, and Mr. W***y Angok risks a heavy defeat if he continues in the race.
It would therefore be wise for him to consider withdrawing early, rather than face the humiliation of a landslide loss that could later be misinterpreted as an unfair or disputed election.