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28/02/2019

Hello! What's new?

From the world:
- The United States is talking about withdrawing from the START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty), after Russia announced possessing a new strike weapon.

- New sanctions are coming, which was confirmed by the US special representative for Ukraine on the board of the US Navy warship in the port of Odessa.

- India bombed Pakistan’s territory and accused the country of supporting terrorism. Pakistan sent fighters to India and shot down 2 military aircrafts, while India shot down 1 Pakistani plane. Recently, India placed an order in the Russian Federation for 30 MIG29.
As we speak, Russia cancelled flights to India.

- There are many deaths and multiple victims on the border of Venezuela due to humanitarian aid from other countries.

- The situation in the South China Sea between China, Vietnam, Indonesia and Malaysia is worsening.

From us:
In 1983, a dollar deposit in the USA brought 18% per annum, in the USSR a rubles deposit brought 2% but there were problems with products and consumer goods (tbh with everything). The arms race was over due to the inability to continue the economic race.

If there is an arms race in the current time, how much deposits will bring?
How much will real estate cost in any country involved in a “cold” or “hot” conflict?
How to save money and independence of capital if 2 countries with nuclear suitcases (India and Pakistan) start a hot border conflict?
(For reference: there were 3 wars in the last 70 years)

Ruble or dollar?
Maybe gold or bitcoin?

We answer these and other questions in our seminars and webinars.

Today and yesterday were important days for investments.
Today, 28.02 was a report from Sberbank , yesterday were reports from many US companies.

Despite the situation in the world, the desire to earn will prevail in capital, but everyone will look at risks very carefully.

We are wathching.

Watching SWN, GPOR, CVNA, ETM, etc
waiting for strong changes and volatility.

Good luck to everyone, strong nerves and health! :)






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The Content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained on our Source constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer by GLC or any third party service provider to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in this or in in any other jurisdiction in which such solicitation or offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.

12/02/2019

Hello! What's new?

On Tuesday, February 12, after a 4-month pause due to vacations and the government shutdown, the US Congress will return to the discussion of anti-Russian sanctions.
Below we mention the most likely measures of economic pressure that the US parliamentarians may implement:
➡️expansion of the sanctions list which includes officials, companies and oligarchs (the most likely and expected measure)

➡️sanctions against Russian government debt (which may ban not only purchasing new issues of the government debt but also owning any Russian debt securities as a whole)

➡️blocking assets of Russian state-owned banks and their disconnection from the world dollar settlement system (the measure is extremely serious, therefore, it will most likely to be “saved” for the future)

💰Foreign investors are likely to stay away from the Russian market by reducing or completely abandoning the purchase of Russian securities until the position of America and the situation as a whole are clarified, which will put pressure on the Russian foreign exchange market - ruble

BUT

If we consider a positive development of the situation, then it can be very interesting:
- It’s most likely that the US will fail in quickly discussing sanctions, applying and introducing them
- The government shutdown may continue on 02/16/19 and this will complicate the adoption of new sanctions in the absence of the efficient government
- Trade wars will attract much more attention than the adoption of new sanctions
- Sanctions is a very good topic for the campaign in the pre-election year in the United States. There is no need to implement them straightway, otherwise, it’s very convenient to constantly talk about them

❗️And most importantly:
Sberbank plans to pay about 19 rubles ($0.29) per share in the form of dividends. The stock price is now 219 rubles ($3.32).
The dividend cut-off will be at the end of June. This means that the closer to the cut-off date the more interesting shares of Sberbank can be due to it’s still high returns even if sanctions will be implementated. Now the turn is around 22% per annum in rubles.
It’s very likely that we will see dividends rally on the Russian market.

We are closely watching the greed and fear of the capital at the same time 🧐





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The Content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained on our Source constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer by GLC or any third party service provider to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in this or in in any other jurisdiction in which such solicitation or offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.

08/02/2019

Hello! What's new?

As the press is actively discussing the difficult political situation in Venezuela, we want to give a brief overview what happened and why.

• How did it all start?
After the death of Hugo Chavis (President of the country from 1999 to 2013) in 2013, 53-year-old Nicolas Maduro took over the presidency. From that moment on, a serious social crisis began in the country: lack of necessary products, devaluation of the national currency, high inflation and crime rates. In 2016, the country was swept by mass protests and opposition parties managed to get an agreement from the National Electoral Council (an independent body in Venezuela responsible for holding fair and transparent elections) to hold early presidential elections in Venezuela. However, it took the parties another 2 years to finally achieve elections.

• Elections.
According to the results of the elections on May 20 last year, the head of the country by that time Nicolas Maduro won the race for the presidency with 67.8% of all votes. After that, many non-governmental organizations and countries such as: the USA, Australia, a number of countries from the Lima Group and the EU found the vote to be invalid.
The election was recognized by: Russia, Syria, Iran, China, Cuba, North Korea, Turkey and others.

• What happened now?
According to the results of the May elections, the inauguration of the president was to be held on January 10, 2019. According to the Constitution of Venezuela, if the country is left without a president, new elections must be held while the interim president shall be the president of the National Assembly. Which actually happened in early January. A number of countries that initially did not recognize the May elections started supporting the President of the National Assembly of Venezuela, Juan Guaido. Accordingly, those countries that recognized the elections as valid chose to support Maduro.
Nicolas Maduro had to announce the date for the second elections within 8 days, which he did not do. Therefore, on January 23 Mr. Guaido proclaimed himself the Interim President of Venezuela. After calling Maduro a tyrant and dictator, he received immediate support from the United States and a number of Latin American countries. By Monday, February 4th, the new leader was recognized by France, Spain, Italy, the United Kingdom, Denmark, Austria and Latvia, if he holds new elections. Eight European foreign ministers, including those of Great Britain, France, Germany, the Netherlands and Italy, planned a meeting for Thursday, 7th February, in the capital of Uruguay, Montevideo, with four Latin American colleagues at the first one of the international "contact group" aimed to resolve the Venezuelan crisis.
Washington considers a possibility of sending American troops to Venezuela. So far, the United States has only imposed sanctions against the Venezuelan state oil company - PDVSA, which negatively affected the organization’s revenues. A portion of which goes directly to the government and the army. So far, the armed forces support Mr. Maduro.

Creditors from China are carefully looking at the situation, which is still quite peaceful.

Let's hope that everything will be resolved calmly.





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The Content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained on our Source constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer by GLC or any third party service provider to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in this or in in any other jurisdiction in which such solicitation or offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.

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