Warka Somalia

28/07/2025

The Somali Minister of State for Foreign Affairs denied any US dialogue with Al-Shabaab, stressing its design continued as a terrorist organization. He pointed to the strategic relations between Somalia and Qatar to enhance bilateral cooperation.
The minister confirmed that the dispute between Somalia and Ethiopia had ended through Turkish mediation, with Ethiopia recognizing Somalia's autonomy and allowing commercial use of its ports. He stressed the need to resolve internal issues without external mediation.
The minister addressed the upcoming presidential elections, noting the shift to a direct presidential election, with parliament continuing to approve constitutional amendments despite security challenges from Al-Shabaab.

10/06/2025

XAJKA IYO BOQORRADII CUSMAANIYIINTA

Dowladihii soo maray taariikhda islaamka waxaa ugu dambeeyey boqortooyadii Cusmaaniyiinta, waxayna xukumeen dhulkii ugu ballaarnaa ee u dhaxeeyey Yurub ilaa xeebaha Soomaaliya.

Boqorradaas dhamaantood meysan gudanin waajibka Xajka, qaarkood waxay dirsan jireen qof kale oo ka soo xajiya. Waa mid kamid qisooyinka la diiwaan galiyey.

Sababo kala duwan awgeed baa keentay, oo ay ugu muhiimsan tahay in safarka xajka sii socod iyo soo socod uu qaadan jiray afar bilood, waana waqti aad u dheer oo aanan laga maqnaan karin xaruntii xukunka.

WQ/Fahad Yaasiin

06/04/2025

Electoral Ambitions and Risks

The push for universal suffrage is a cornerstone of Mohamud’s agenda, with district-level elections planned for June 2025 and a national vote to follow. This shift from the indirect, clan-delegate system aims to legitimize the government and broaden participation.

However, the process is fraught with challenges. Voter registration is lagging in conflict zones, and Al-Shabaab has vowed to disrupt polling, as it did during the 2022 indirect elections with bombings in Baidoa and Beledweyne. Opposition figures, including former presidents Sharif Sheikh Ahmed and Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo, have accused the FGS of rigging the process by stacking the electoral commission with loyalists, a charge that sparked violent protests in Mogadishu in January 2025.

The constitutional amendments passed in 2024, which enshrine a presidential system and multiparty elections, have also stirred debate. Critics argue they concentrate power in the executive, sidelining parliament and traditional clan leaders. Women’s groups, meanwhile, are pressing for the promised 30% quota, but resistance from conservative factions and logistical hurdles make this a long shot for 2025.

06/04/2025

Al-Shabaab’s Evolving Threat

Al-Shabaab’s influence in 2025 is as much political as it is military. Beyond its rural strongholds, the group has infiltrated urban areas, extorting businesses and even influencing local governance through shadow administrations.

In March 2025, reports emerged of Al-Shabaab taxing traders in Mogadishu’s Bakara Market, a vital economic hub, right under the government’s nose. This adaptability has kept the group relevant despite losses from government offensives and U.S. drone strikes, like the one in late 2024 that killed a senior commander.

The government’s reliance on clan militias, known as macawisley, to fight Al-Shabaab has had mixed outcomes. While these militias helped reclaim towns in Hirshabelle and Galmudug in 2024, their loyalty is often to clan elders rather than the state, creating parallel power structures. There’s growing concern that arming these groups could backfire, potentially fueling clan conflicts or even defections to Al-Shabaab

if incentives dry up. The group’s propaganda has also sharpened, exploiting anti-government sentiment over corruption and foreign troop presence.

06/04/2025

Internal Power Struggles and Clan Dynamics

Somalia’s federal system is a patchwork of semi-autonomous states, and the relationship between the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and these regions is a constant source of friction. The clan-based political structure remains a double-edged sword: it provides a framework for representation but also fuels division.

President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s administration has tried to centralize power, which has alienated states like Puntland and Jubaland. For instance, Puntland’s leadership, under President Said Abdullahi Deni, has resisted federal overreach, asserting its own electoral timeline and security policies. In early 2025, Puntland suspended cooperation with the FGS over revenue-sharing disputes, a move that echoed its brief declaration of autonomy in 2023.

Jubaland, led by President Ahmed Madobe, is another flashpoint. Madobe’s re-election in 2022 was contested by Mogadishu, and skirmishes between Jubaland forces and federal troops flared up again in February 2025 over control of border areas near Kenya. These tensions reflect a broader struggle: the FGS wants to assert authority, while regional leaders leverage local militias and clan loyalties to maintain their fiefdoms. This tug-of-war complicates everything from tax collection to counterinsurgency efforts against Al-Shabaab.

06/04/2025

Regional Dynamics and Somaliland

Relations with federal member states and the breakaway region of Somaliland add further complexity. Somaliland, which declared independence in 1991 but lacks international recognition, held presidential elections in November 2024, electing Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi ("Irro") as president. His victory, with over 60% of the vote, reflects Somaliland's push for international legitimacy, a goal that clashes with Somalia's federal government, which views it as a separatist threat.

Tensions escalated in 2024 when Somalia severed ties with Ethiopia over a port access deal with Somaliland, though recent talks mediated by Turkey in February 2025 suggest a thaw, with both nations pledging to promote regional stability.
Within Somalia,

Puntland has also pursued its own path, conducting direct municipal elections in 2023 and clashing with federal forces over political influence, while Jubaland's disputes with Mogadishu have led to armed confrontations as recently as February 2025.

06/04/2025

Al-Shabaab and Security Challenges

The Al-Shabaab insurgency remains a dominant force in Somali politics, controlling significant rural areas and challenging the federal government's authority. In March 2025, the group demonstrated its resilience by setting up checkpoints near Mogadishu and launching attacks, undermining government claims of progress in the security sector.

President Mohamud's aggressive military campaign, supported by clan militias and the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), has seen mixed results. While some territory has been reclaimed, Al-Shabaab continues to mount deadly urban attacks and exploit governance weaknesses.

The transition from ATMIS to a new African Union mission (AUSSOM) by the end of 2024 is a critical issue. With ATMIS troop withdrawals ongoing, there are concerns about a security vacuum, especially as Somali forces struggle to hold recaptured areas without sufficient resources or a robust holding force.

06/04/2025

Federal Government and Leadership

Somalia operates as a federal state under President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, who was re-elected in May 2022 after a contentious and delayed electoral process. His administration has focused on combating the Islamist insurgency Al-Shabaab, declaring a "total war" against the group, and pushing for state-building initiatives.

However, the government faces significant hurdles, including fragile relations with federal member states (FMS) like Jubaland and Puntland, which often operate with considerable autonomy and have clashed with federal forces over governance and electoral issues.

Recent developments show the government advancing plans for Somalia's first one-person, one-vote elections in decades, a shift from the clan-based indirect voting system that has dominated since the collapse of central authority in 1991. The electoral body has been working toward district elections slated for mid-2025, though tensions persist, as seen in clashes between security forces and opposition-aligned groups in early 2025.

07/03/2025

War. DegDeg ah Abiya Ahmed ayaa goor dhaweyd lagu toogtay magaalada Mogadishu OO uu si qarsoodi ah kusoo gaaray saakay

06/03/2024

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05/03/2024

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15/02/2024

The Somalia-Ethiopia Conflict: A Complex Tale of Historical Tensions and Regional Dynamics

The Somalia-Ethiopia conflict is a long-standing issue that has roots in historical tensions, territorial disputes, and regional power struggles. This blog post aims to provide an overview of the conflict, shed light on its causes, and explore potential solutions for peace and stability in the region.

Historical Context:
To understand the Somalia-Ethiopia conflict, it is essential to delve into the historical context of both nations. Ethiopia, a landlocked country in the Horn of Africa, has a rich history dating back thousands of years. It has maintained its independence throughout colonization by European powers, which helped shape its national identity as a fiercely proud and sovereign nation.

Somalia, on the other hand, was formed through the amalgamation of former Italian Somaliland and British Somaliland in 1960. Since then, it has struggled with internal conflicts, clan rivalries, and the collapse of state institutions. This instability has provided external actors, including Ethiopia, with opportunities to influence the region's affairs.

Territorial Disputes:
The Somalia-Ethiopia conflict has been exacerbated by territorial disputes, primarily regarding the Ogaden region and the self-declared state of Somaliland. Both nations have claimed ownership, resulting in sporadic clashes and tensions over the years. These territorial disputes have not only affected bilateral relations but have also had wider implications, including refugee crises and cross-border infiltration.

Proxy Wars and Regional Dynamics:
The Somalia-Ethiopia conflict has been further complicated by proxy wars and regional dynamics. In the past, external actors seeking to exert influence in the Horn of Africa, such as the Soviet Union and the United States during the Cold War, supported rival factions within Somalia and Ethiopia. These interventions exacerbated existing tensions and fueled internal conflicts, leading to a cycle of violence and instability.

Al-Shabaab and Security Concerns:
The rise of the extremist group Al-Shabaab in Somalia has added another layer of complexity to the conflict. Al-Shabaab has exploited the power vacuum and weak governance structures in Somalia, conducting attacks not only within the country but also posing a threat to regional stability. Ethiopia, as a neighboring country, has been directly affected by the group's activities and has at times intervened militarily to counter this threat.

Potential Solutions:
Achieving lasting peace and stability in the Somalia-Ethiopia conflict requires a multifaceted approach. The following are some potential solutions:

1. Dialogue and Diplomacy: Promote diplomatic channels for dialogue between both nations to address historical grievances, territorial disputes, and regional concerns.

2. Strengthening Institutions: Support efforts to build robust and inclusive institutions in Somalia to enhance governance, the rule of law, and security capacity.

3. Regional Cooperation: Encourage collaboration between regional organizations such as the African Union (AU), Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), and the East African Community (EAC) to address the conflict collectively.

4. Economic Development: Foster economic growth and development in both Somalia and Ethiopia to alleviate poverty, reduce competition over scarce resources, and provide an alternative to conflict for the local population.

Conclusion:
The Somalia-Ethiopia conflict is a complex issue with deep historical roots and regional dynamics. Resolving this conflict requires a comprehensive approach that addresses historical grievances, territorial disputes, and regional security concerns. By promoting dialogue, strengthening institutions, encouraging regional cooperation, and fostering economic development, there is hope for a more stable and peaceful future in the Horn of Africa.