02/03/2026
Our latest assessment of the ongoing conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran indicates that despite reports of significant leadership losses, including the decapitation of senior Iranian figures such as Ayatollah Khamenei, the likelihood of immediate regime collapse remains limited. Our simulation suggests that Iran’s political system is structurally more resilient than highly personalized regimes such as Saddam Hussein’s Iraq or Muammar Gaddafi’s Libya, which depended heavily on centralized dictatorial authority. In contrast, Iran operates through layered institutional mechanisms, including clerical succession frameworks, security networks, and parallel governance structures that provide continuity under external pressure. While leadership incapacitation may reduce Iran’s ability to coordinate retaliation effectively at the highest strategic level, it does not dismantle the regime’s institutional core. At the same time, the United States appears to favor a shorter conflict timeline, which may increase pressure for some form of negotiated recalibration. However, any emerging compromise is unlikely to constitute durable peace, and the more plausible trajectory remains a temporary stabilization followed by continued oscillation between tension and managed restraint within the broader regional rivalry.
The present United States–Israeli campaign against Iran has progressed beyond punitive reprisal into a deliberate effort to erode the regime’s systemic capacity for war and governance. Air superiority over Tehran, coupled with sustained strikes on air defences, missile infrastructure, naval asse...
