Transatlantic Policy Quarterly Journal

14/03/2023

TPQ's Most Recent Issue is Now Available!
Check out 18 Incredible Articles from Leading Professors, Journalists, and Researchers on the Changing World Order, The "New Cold War," and the Influence of Conflict in Ukraine on Global Affairs.

A Year Since the Return of History: A New Cold War?

10/10/2022

"While sanctions have removed much of Iran’s oil and gas off the market and its traditional exports of nuts, dried fruits, rugs, and handicrafts, they have helped the fortunes of producers elsewhere. In turn, they have become a powerful lobby for maintaining sanctions on Iran. Lobbyists for Qatar, UAE and Saudi Arabia work behind the scenes to maintain the sanctions to dampen any competition from Iran in natural gas and oil and in turn weaken Iran politically. California pistachio growers lobby to keep Iranian nuts out of the U.S.. Of course, there is an army of anti-Iranian regime lobbyists—Israeli, Jewish, Arab- who want tighter sanctions to topple the Tehran regime," writes Professor Emeritus Hossein Askari.
http://transatlanticpolicy.com/blog/100/economic-sanctions--our-modern-day-gordian-knot

10/10/2022

"The NATO 2022 Strategic Concept reiterated that strategic concern: “[EDTs]…are altering the character of conflict, acquiring greater strategic importance, and becoming key arenas of global competition. Technological primacy increasingly influences success on the battlefield.” The goal of technological primacy, in turn, yielded an intra-alliance agreement to “promote innovation and increase our investments in emerging and disruptive technologies to retain our interoperability and military edge.” The new strategic concept identified the Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China as NATO’s contemporaneous and putative threats, respectively, to the alliance and its member states. Emerging technologies play a key role in shaping the NATO perception of the nature of the threats posed. In the Russian case, the document identified the deployment of “novel and disruptive dual-capable delivery systems” (i.e., hypersonic missiles and cruise missiles) that could lead to fundamental changes in nuclear doctrine and fatally compromise allied nuclear (and conventional) deterrence. The immediate concerns with China are ongoing “malicious hybrid and cyber operations” against NATO member states, but the long-term threat was identified as China’s long-term ambition to control “key technological and industrial sectors, critical infrastructure, and strategic materials and supply chains.” If that goal were to be realized, China would offset or end NATO’s existing margin of technological dominance."
http://transatlanticpolicy.com/article/1145/future-uncertain-nato-in-a-post-quantum-post-ai-world

09/10/2022

"The increase in foreign trade also involved a greater involvement in the global economy and governance. China's engagement was promoted by a U.S. that saw the more significant economic integration of China as leading to greater global stability and new investment opportunities. There was a naive belief that increased globalization of China's economy would lead to greater democratization of Chinese society. China became an essential hub of the global economy; it is now the leading trading partner of at least 80 countries. China has also embarked on a global investment program. The Belt and Road initiative involves vast infrastructure investment at selected hubs along land and sea routes linking China with the rest of the world."

The Russian invasion of Ukraine signals a new world order that has developed from the bipolar world of 1945 to 1991 and

08/10/2022

"The jubilant tone of the leaders could hardly obscure the hyperbole their statements entailed: Did such a strong unity actually exist across the Western world even while such speeches were being made at the NATO summit? A more serious cause for concern was the possible effect on global geopolitics of a prolonged conflict in Ukraine. One significant change in NATO’s new Strategic Concept harkens back to the Cold War in some ways. Second is a major geopolitical change brought on by Russia’s energy export restrictions to Europe. Third is the degree to which a prolonged conflict may affect centrifugal forces within the Western alliance, given differing economic vulnerabilities and economic priorities among them. Fourth is what recent evidence may be considered as a guide to assess the effects of sanctions imposed on Russia. The following discussion will consider these four questions and their implications for transatlantic security."

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine seems to have led, with very few exceptions, to greater cooperation among members of

07/10/2022

"While “the post-Cold War era” has come to an end with the beginning of the war, the political economy of globalization has been altered, combating global warming has been neglected, and a more fluid and disruptive era has begun. Furthermore, there is a laundry list of signs that the Pax-Americana and its embedded liberal post-1945 world order are quickly coming to an end: calls for the “Second Cold War” or “Cold War 2.0”; concerns about a nuclear war leading to the “Third World War”; trade wars and the rise of “de-globalization”; widening and deepening of severe polarization, exclusionary nationalism and “culture wars”; democratic backsliding and illiberal authoritarian populism; the global power shift and the fortification of the power of the non-Western international relations and strategic capitalism. Meanwhile, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, while fastening the end of the era, has been bringing about a variety of morbid symptoms and crisis-ridden developments, requiring each and every actor to reposition its role and place. During this interregnum, this transition, no actor is immune from the necessity to recalibrate its capacity and strategy. Strategic vision and choice are absolutely imperative for success. This is nowhere more evident and necessary than in Europe and the West."

At the beginning of 2022, just as the globalizing world was entering the post-Covid period and the United Nations

06/10/2022

"While NATO’s three core tasks– collective defense, crisis prevention and management, and cooperative security– remain, this new Concept is significantly different in scope and tone compared to its 2010 predecessor. Several aspects of the security environment a decade ago informed the 2010 Concept. The ambition of that time was to develop a strategic partnership with the Russian Federation. There was also a belief that the international security order was, overall, more predictable and that most security challenges would come from beyond NATO’s area of responsibility. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) had not yet reached the transatlantic security agenda. These facts led to a consequent strong focus on crisis management. As we enter the 2020s, the Madrid Concept describes today’s more unstable and challenging security environment, and makes clear the need for Allies to be prepared for this volatility."

In June 2022, Spain hosted one of the most consequential summits in NATO’s history. The doors of the Alliance were

26/09/2022

"Even if Mr. Putin was to achieve all his territorial objectives in Ukraine, that would do little to enhance his country’s security. NATO’s new-found unity, increased strength and more extended border pose a greater threat to Russia than Ukraine’s foreign policy ever did. Russia will emerge from the war more vulnerable than when it initiated the conflict."
http://transatlanticpolicy.com/article/1151/russias-assault-on-ukraine-fallout-from-the-war

25/09/2022

"Developments in AI, quantum, hypersonic, and directed energy weapons technologies will inevitably shift the offensive-defensive balance in ways that will aggravate the security dilemma. The inevitable shift to an offensive strategy is problematic for a self-declared defensive alliance, especially since NATO derived and sustained its political legitimacy from that mission."

The emerging and disruptive technologies of the 21st century—artificial intelligence and quantum