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外交事務報導太陽花運動:馬英九應該記得他服務於一個民主政體http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/141518/roselyn-hsueh/taiwans-treaty-trouble外交事務雙月刊為美...
04/06/2014

外交事務報導太陽花運動:馬英九應該記得他服務於一個民主政體
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/141518/roselyn-hsueh/taiwans-treaty-trouble

外交事務雙月刊為美國最孚影響力的外交期刊之一。長期刊載碩彥及知名政治人物對當代國際議題的評論與展望。

許多台灣人相信,服貿裡的不平等條款昭彰了北京的企圖:區域主導。

在服貿的例子裡,就是剝削台灣,以及操縱台灣的領導人。因此,服貿在近期內生效的可能看來十分渺茫;多數的台灣大眾堅決反對服貿協議,而立法程序的阻礙則擋著服貿不能批准。

僅僅從經濟上的原因來說,台灣大眾要求政府凍結對中談判並不叫人吃驚。

這個兩岸協議要求台灣同意中國直接投資於服務產業,其程度大幅超越目前台灣所核准的。這將嚴重威脅到台灣由中小企業所主導的經濟,在面對有國家撐腰的中國企業的競爭與併購時,中小企業格外脆弱。

台灣服務產業的分崩離析將會進一步加重台灣出口導向經濟的負擔,台灣近年來已成長疲軟。大製造商,例如HTC與統一企業,已經遷徙到中國以利用便宜的勞動力。

但是許多台灣人也有政治上憂心的原因:中國可以利用對台灣出版業的投資,做為宣傳的平台;而中國的安全設備則可能滲透台灣的電信基礎設施。

台灣的主要商業結社大多由與馬政府緊密結合的大企業主導,並且支持著服貿協議,或者保持著耐人尋味的沉默。

但是這些結社並不代表台灣中小企業的利益,台灣中小企業占了台灣企業的98%,並且雇用了台灣78%的員工。

換句話說,那些最可能因為服貿受到傷害的,被排除在協商過程之外。為了展現對學生示威者的支持,這些中小企業主加入了台北總統府遊行,並且捐贈食物及其他物資。

服貿協議內容的失衡,也展現在馬英九只為台灣爭取到有限的中國讓步,那就是在某些不吸引人的地點,中國加大了某些產業有限自由化的程度。

例如,台灣投資者可以與中國夥伴在福建省建立電子商務公司。但是中國最重要的網路公司,像是阿里巴巴,搜狐,淘寶是在北京與上海營運,而不是福建。

更甚者,中國消費者仍然沒辦法向位於台灣的網站購物,但是中國公司卻可以直接把觸角伸向台灣消費者。

服貿協議在基本保障上也完全空白,例如公正的爭議仲裁人──這對於各國保有討價還價的本錢是很重要的。

大體來說,北京對台北提供的條件優於多數的外國投資者。說到對外國投資者投資的公司任意施加營運及擁有權限制,中國可是惡名昭彰。

這樣的策略幫助共產黨官員維持威權控制,以及中國企業的特權,尤其在電信業,金融業,能源業這種中國重點強化國家科技基礎以及軍事與情報實力的產業上。

到目前為止,這個方法頗孚成效:中國電信設備製造商華為快速地獲得世界性的成功,而谷歌與雅虎則被迫收減在中國的營運規模。

馬英九的低民調支持度,最近幾個月已低於10%,反映了台灣對其飢渴於在北京的條件下與北京貿易的不滿。

許多選民相信馬英九應該關注於投資教育,基礎建設以及研究。台灣迫切需要這些投資。如今,台灣有亞洲第二高的青年失業率──13%。台灣的平均月薪已經停滯超過十五年。

台灣的上班族與工人也害怕來自中國的移民洪流,他們願意接受更低的薪水,但還是忠誠於北京的共產政權。

敵意併購

許多台灣人害怕服貿協議除了破壞台灣經濟之外,還標示著政治統一的開始。這樣的恐懼加深了台灣從1990年代早期民主轉型開始強化的國家認同感。

台灣的四十多年國民黨威權統治一開始製造了台灣多數人與49年中國來台少數人的政治分歧。這樣的分歧在李登輝任期後持續影響著政治。

但是近年來的調查資料顯示,多數的台灣公民,包括49年來台的後代,如今反對著統一並且認為自己是獨特(於中國人)的台灣人。他們對於台灣做為一個國家的認同在過去二十年裡也穩定的上升。

這樣的認同是跨族群的,但是在那些年紀介於20到59歲之間,還有曾經去過中國的人來說更為顯著。

正是在這樣的脈絡下,太陽花運動以及其他最近的抗議活動──從核能電廠,環境問題,到媒體壟斷──收攏了之前分歧於國家認同的不同團體。

第三代以及第四代49年來台者,死硬台灣法理獨立的支持者,以及小生意主,許多儘管希望與中國更深的經濟連結能夠促進台灣經濟,都加入了這場學生運動。

他們已經接受了中國經濟實力的事實,但是堅決的反對中國式的資本主義與封閉的政治系統。而且儘管他們明白台灣無法承受與中國完全切斷經濟關係,他們會持續向政府要求透明化,堅持政府重新協商或拒絕條款。

在付諸具文任何中國協議之前,馬英九應該謹慎的傾聽台灣公眾的聲音,並且記得他服務於一個民主政體。

一周長的太陽花運動反映了對於中國自信的更廣泛的區域焦慮。尤其在關於富含油氣的東中國海與南中國海的爭端上。

最近中國的舉動也激化了日本,菲律賓及越南的國族主義情緒。風險關鍵在於,北京是不是能夠持續按他的玩法佔鄰近民主國家的便宜而不出事。

就像是許多台灣人一樣,這些國家的人民如今將北京的新生自信視為不受歡迎的,對自己國家主權的侵犯。

貿易協議尤其是用來為所有參與經濟體建立一個平適的遊戲場,在所有參與者都遵守透明規則與規範的情況下,貿易協議最能夠達到有益的效果。如果台灣的反應是任何指標的話,那就是北京對於區域霸權的追求,很可能是會面臨實際限制的。

30/05/2014

1947年,誰也不會料到,中華民國內政部方域司在其繪製出版的「南海諸島位置圖」中,以十一條斷續線標繪南海,竟成為當今國際社會的「亮點」。中華人民共和國在1949年成立後,繼承了這條斷續線,只不過為了向越南釋出善意,周恩來決定拭去北部灣及東京灣附近的兩條線,於是,十一條斷續線便成為九條斷續線。無論是「十一斷線」或「九斷線」,其形狀如英文字母U形,又被簡稱為「U形線」。 「U形線」存在雖然已久,但卻沒有任何一個官方機構願意闡明「U形線」之法理地位,特別是在1982年「聯合國海洋法公約」通過後,「U形線」更顯得撲朔迷離,兩岸官方也「說不清楚,也講不明白」,反倒讓「U形線」成為南海衝突的導火線。200…

經濟學人:中越事件下的東協團結  柬埔寨押寶中國 http://www.economist.com/blogs/banyan/2014/05/chinese-workers-vietnam越南當局已開始取締騷亂,逮捕超過一千人。但是花招百出...
18/05/2014

經濟學人:中越事件下的東協團結 柬埔寨押寶中國
http://www.economist.com/blogs/banyan/2014/05/chinese-workers-vietnam

越南當局已開始取締騷亂,逮捕超過一千人。但是花招百出的出逃已是現在進行式。

中國政府已派出五艘僑船的第一艘。一般認為在過去五天內已有三千人出逃,約有一半進入柬埔寨。

將近一半的東協國家跟中國有海權糾紛,包括越南,菲律賓,馬來西亞,文萊和印尼。

中國的九段線主張也是台灣的主張,把大部分的南海領域都涵納其中。南海國家的兩百浬經濟海域大部分都被劃進去。

兩年前柬埔寨開始跟其他東協國家唱起異曲,反過頭來有效地支持中國用一系列的雙邊(非多邊)會談,要解決與鄰國的海事糾紛。

越南原來希望讓東協出面,團結與中國協商。柬埔寨的立場分裂了東協,不過似乎也讓柬埔寨在這次事件裡,成了中國人的避難所。

柬埔寨長期跟中國有著非比尋常的良好關係,柬埔寨並不跟中國領土接壤。

柬埔寨的多數族群,高棉人,有著對強大外鄰越南抱持敵意的傳統。對比起中國作為越南強鄰的歷史,就好像是一面反射鏡。

一名邊境的柬埔寨中尉說,五月十四日黎明前,突然有不尋常的中國人活動,許多他的同袍被調動,要查清發生甚麼事。

他說,越南邊關人員態度堅定而有禮,戳記中國工人的護照,並告訴他們離開,中國工人是跟著其他遊客一起來的,那就是他們怎麼逃脫的。

經濟學人:反中暴動 越南也擔心殃及台灣另一個問題是,在較長時期內,這樣的動盪局勢會如何影響外國對越南的直接投資(FDI)。以註冊資本計算,日本,台灣,新加坡和韓國分別是越南最大的四個投資國。中國則位居在第5和第11之間,取決於越南的官方數據...
15/05/2014

經濟學人:反中暴動 越南也擔心殃及台灣

另一個問題是,在較長時期內,這樣的動盪局勢會如何影響外國對越南的直接投資(FDI)。

以註冊資本計算,日本,台灣,新加坡和韓國分別是越南最大的四個投資國。中國則位居在第5和第11之間,取決於越南的官方數據是如何解釋的。

一位西方分析家說,外國投資者仍在試圖確認,是否有更嚴重,可能造成潛在威脅的麻煩還要到來,像是對外國投資者的偏見,或是整個區域的不穩定。

胡志明市越南資產證券的常務董事,Michel Tosto說:中國投資未來勢必要減少了,但是說到整體的影響,大概還是可以應付的。

"至於台灣,"Michel Tosto說,“他們是大投資者,這是更令人擔憂的一點。"

幾個越南評論員,包括阮廣甲,一位著名的經濟學家,本週稍早表示,他們希望這場爭端最終能有利於越南,讓越南至少在某程度上,逃離長期在中國經濟影子下的命運,並且發展高收入的出口商品,而不僅是咖啡,大米和魚。

華盛頓亞美利加大學的托馬斯詹德則猜想,親中的執政越南共產黨若是弱化了,可以讓越南改革者站穩腳步,回推刺激越南雜亂的國有部門。

對美國來說,也可能轉換作對TPP的支持力量。但是首先,這場運動的火焰不能就此熄滅。

紐時:越南反中暴動 台灣老闆:我們不想跟政治扯上關係,怎麼還會找上我們?近年來,國際投資紛紛湧向越南,許多是仰賴廉價勞力的製造業。這些國際投資促成了越南二十年來的經濟成長,而湧入的中國勞工則成了緊張的來源。來越南找工作的中國工人與日俱增,儘...
15/05/2014

紐時:越南反中暴動 台灣老闆:我們不想跟政治扯上關係,怎麼還會找上我們?

近年來,國際投資紛紛湧向越南,許多是仰賴廉價勞力的製造業。

這些國際投資促成了越南二十年來的經濟成長,而湧入的中國勞工則成了緊張的來源。

來越南找工作的中國工人與日俱增,儘管工資普遍低於中國。

有些中國工人,像是四十歲的王先生,透過觀光簽證來到越南,然後向中國僱主找尋頭路,許多都是營造公司。

這次的越南群眾抗議事件,儘管發軔於對中國於越南近海部署鑽油平台的不滿,南韓與台灣的公司與員工卻也成了遭殃的對象。

儘管越南重度仰賴中國的貿易與投資,在符合越南政府需要時,越南官員仍願意透過國營媒體鼓動反中情緒。

對於中國日漸高漲的南海主權宣稱,這場暴動(riot)標誌了民眾憤怒的罕見爆發,也顯示出在此(東南亞)區域裡,反中敵意正在上揚。

同時,越南也更鄰近而暴露於中國日趨高漲的自信之下。

到目前為止,越南的外交努力都失敗了。越南試圖與中國進行雙邊談判,但是當中國毫無預警的開設鑽油平台後,這樣的雙邊談判開始顯得空洞。

事實上,不只發生在越南,菲律賓也舉行了正式的反中抗議活動。

越南上周試著從其他東協國家尋求支持,卻沒甚麼成果,其他九個國家只模糊的呼籲應該用外交取代單邊行動。

到目前為止,越南與菲律賓都看不到其他東南亞國家有甚麼反應,中國在許多東南亞國家都提供了投資與援助。

越南領導人面臨困難的抉擇,到底該如何回應中國的挑戰。不像日本與菲律賓,越南跟美國沒有防禦條約。美國已承諾將與盟邦肩並肩處理挑戰。

手上已沒好牌可打,可能促使越南走上暴動一途。

一位要求紐約時報為其匿名的台灣工廠老闆說:他跟其他投資人沒甚麼其他選擇,只能修理重建損壞的工廠。"我們已經在這兒,沒法走了。"他說。

"我們不想跟政治扯上關係,他們怎麼還會找上我們?"

雖然越南很熱切於反對中國鑽油平台,但是這也給越南當局帶來挑戰,當局憂心這樣的抗議活動可能轉為要求民主的呼聲,也想跟投資人保持良好關係。

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/16/world/asia/anti-chinese-violence-turns-deadly-and-spreads-in-vietnam.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/15/world/asia/foreign-factories-in-vietnam-weigh-damage-in-anti-china-riots.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/14/world/asia/anger-grows-in-vietnam-over-dispute-with-china.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

俄羅斯艦群穿越英吉利海峽 英遣最新型驅逐艦緊隨http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/08/us-britain-russia-carrier-idUSBREA470P620140508英國已派遣最新式...
08/05/2014

俄羅斯艦群穿越英吉利海峽 英遣最新型驅逐艦緊隨
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/08/us-britain-russia-carrier-idUSBREA470P620140508

英國已派遣最新式的龍式驅逐艦,緊隨這批異常大的俄羅斯艦群。

這批艦群包括了俄國唯一一艘航空母艦,庫茲涅佐夫元帥號,一艘核動力戰鬥巡洋艦,以及一艘登陸支援艦。

英國並指出鄰近英國空域,俄羅斯空軍的活動開始復甦。

俄羅斯海軍發言人上月表示,庫茲涅佐夫元帥號已完成地中海部署任務,將返回俄羅斯西北的北莫爾斯克基地。

英國表示事前曾接獲通知,出動驅逐艦為例行任務。外界視之為英國意圖淡化影響。

經濟學人:美國重返亞洲歐巴馬之旅 亞洲人從歐巴馬拿的 比歐巴馬拿的多http://www.economist.com/news/asia/21601560-asians-got-more-american-president-he-got-...
07/05/2014

經濟學人:美國重返亞洲
歐巴馬之旅 亞洲人從歐巴馬拿的 比歐巴馬拿的多
http://www.economist.com/news/asia/21601560-asians-got-more-american-president-he-got-them-pivotal

日本與菲律賓是美國的條約盟友,而且都拿到比他們覺得該拿得更多。

日本在於釣魚台,這次首次有在任美國總統明確表示,如果日本遇到嚴重中國侵犯,美國會來援日本。

菲律賓則新簽了十年的防禦條約,美軍將在菲律賓非常有存在感。

至於南韓,美國則同意南韓的請求,推遲了韓軍戰時獨立於美軍指揮的打算,維持納入美國指揮的現有布局。

歐巴馬說,北韓挑釁時,美國將與南韓肩併肩面對。

馬來西亞則在數個面向上與美國加強合作。

但是歐巴馬在TPP議題上,並未斬獲多少。
Japan and the Philippines are treaty allies of America, and both got the extra support they felt they deserved. Japan welcomed Mr Obama’s unequivocal declaration that the Senkaku islands—which the Chinese call the Diaoyus—would be covered by the bilateral Treaty of Mutual Co-operation and Security in the event of an armed attack on them. America still claims not to be taking sides on the ultimate question of the uninhabited islands’ sovereignty. But that will not stop it supporting Japan’s administration of them.

This was the first time a sitting president had made America’s commitment explicit and was intended to reassure the government of Japan’s prime minister, Shinzo Abe, that America would indeed come to Japan’s aid in the event of a serious Chinese incursion. Likewise the Philippine president, Benigno Aquino (pictured, right), welcomed the signing of a new ten-year defence pact. This will give America a significant military presence there for the first time since its forces left bases at Clark and Subic Bay in the early 1990s.

As for Mr Obama’s two-day trip to South Korea, the most substantive outcome was also military in nature. Under current arrangements, South Korean troops would come under American operational control if there were a war (South Korea retains peacetime control of its forces). That had been due to change in December 2015, when South Korea was scheduled to take back control of its forces in case of war. Last year, however, the South Korean government, worried about its military preparedness, requested a postponement after North Korea conducted a third nuclear test. During his current tour, Mr Obama agreed to delay the transfer. He assured President Park Geun-hye that the United States stood “shoulder-to-shoulder” with South Korea over North Korean provocations.

In return for these reassurances to his Asian friends, Mr Obama had hoped to bring home progress on his cherished Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal, a new block that would encompass 12 countries on both sides of the Pacific (though not China). But the TPP remains deeply unpopular with voters and vested interests in several parts of Asia. In Japan and Malaysia Mr Obama’s hosts preferred to stand at arm’s length rather than shoulder-to-shoulder. No agreement was reached in Japan, despite frantic negotiations and earlier commitments from Mr Abe. Japan still refuses to give way by lowering tariffs on five “sacred” areas of agriculture, including beef and rice. (America, for its part, wants to maintain high tariffs on imported pickup trucks.)

Mr Obama also left Malaysia empty-handed. Just as the Japanese fear what TPP will do to heavily protected bits of their economy, so ruling Malaysian politicians know that TPP membership could spell the end of their affirmative-action policies favouring the ethnic-Malay majority over Malaysians of Chinese and Indian extraction. So although Mr Obama and the Malaysian prime minister, Najib Razak, agreed to strengthen bilateral ties in several areas, trade was not one of them. As in Japan, the two sides were rock solid on the one thing diplomats everywhere approve of: the need for more talks.

07/05/2014

經濟學人:中越南海生波 這次大不同
http://www.economist.com/blogs/banyan/2014/05/china-v-vietnam

背景:
中國在越南宣示主權海域開始鑽油,越南要求中國撤出,中國要求越南不要騷擾鑽油平台。

歐巴馬藉造訪日本之機,將釣魚台納入美日安保條約之下;美軍將重回菲律賓蘇比克灣駐紮。

日本與菲律賓為美國條約盟友,越南則否。

--
一如往常,中國的宣稱是模糊的。所謂的九段線,涵括了幾乎整個南海海域,建立在"歷史權利"上。

這在國際法上不是有效論證基礎,而中國從未明確澄清其意義。
But as always, the basis of China’s claim is hazy. It also produces maps with a vast U-shaped area covering almost the entire sea, enclosed in a “nine-dash line”, which it says gives it historic rights to the land features (and perhaps the water) inside. This has no basis in international law and China has never clarified exactly what it means.

這種不確定概念在這片菲律賓,大馬,汶萊,台灣都宣稱主權的海域造成了緊張。中國最嚴重的爭端則是與菲律賓與越南。最近爭端則集中在越南上。
This uncertainty has created tension in various parts of the sea, where the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan also have claims. China’s most serious disputes have been with the Philippines and Vietnam. But of late, the one with Vietnam has been dormant, as China has concentrated on bullying the Philippines.

比起其他爭端,最近的中越爭端之所以值得注意:

第一,這是第一次中國真的在越南宣稱主權的海域開始鑽油。

第二,中國據報派遣了四十隻船艦保護平台,部分來自海軍。

第三,越南已被置於非常難以不回應的處境。

第四,這起事件就發生在歐巴馬剛離開亞洲的時候,而歐巴馬這趟行程就在撫慰亞洲盟友美國"戰略重返亞洲"的誠心承諾。
This latest stand-off seems more serious than most for a number of reasons.

First, although there have been frequent squabbles around the Paracels over the activities of fishing and oil-survey vessels, this is believed to be the first time China has actually drilled for oil in waters claimed by Vietnam.

Second, it is reported to have sent as many as 40 ships, including some from the navy, to protect the rig.

Third, Vietnam will find it very hard not to respond in some way to what it sees as an entirely illegal sea-grab. Public opinion in the country is sensitive to Chinese slights, and to the failure of the government to do enough about them.

Finally, this flare-up comes just after Barack Obama’s four-country tour of Asia, one aim of which was to reassure America’s friends in the region about the sincerity of its commitment to a strategic “pivot” to Asia.

Mr Obama reassured Japan that the islands it is quarrelling over with China are covered by America’s security guarantee. And his visit was marked by the beefing-up of security ties with the Philippines, another treaty ally (though not by an explicit commitment over its disputes in the South China Sea).

Vietnam is not an American ally, though relations have been warming in recent years, partly because of the Vietnamese fear of China’s rise. And if America proves impotent in the face of this Chinese “provocation”, it may help undo whatever progress Mr Obama made on the reassurance front.

胡椒噴霧對付和平示威群眾 德柏林警察局長:明顯不當五月五日 德國明鏡http://www.spiegel.de/panorama/1-mai-in-berlin-polizist-nach-pfefferspray-einsatz-ange...
05/05/2014

胡椒噴霧對付和平示威群眾 德柏林警察局長:明顯不當
五月五日 德國明鏡
http://www.spiegel.de/panorama/1-mai-in-berlin-polizist-nach-pfefferspray-einsatz-angezeigt-a-967589.html

[德國經驗再次揭示甚麼叫做法治國,以及比例原則的重要性]

柏林警局已展開對一位自家警官的刑事調查,此調查指向"人身傷害"。

據稱此警官在五月一日的柏林克羅茲伯格示威活動時,對一名和平民眾的臉上噴灑胡椒噴霧。

警察局長克勞茲康特在議會民政委員會上說:此行為明顯不當(無根據便採取此行為)。
Berlin - Die Berliner Polizei hat ein Strafverfahren gegen einen ihrer Beamten eingeleitet. Der Vorwurf lautet "Körperverletzung im Amt". Der betroffene Polizist soll bei einer Demonstration am 1. Mai in Berlin Kreuzberg einem Mann Pfefferspray ins Gesicht gesprüht haben - "offenbar grundlos", wie Polizeipräsident Klaus Kandt im Innenausschuss des Abgeordnetenhauses sagte. Grundlage für die Anzeige war ein Youtube-Video, wie ein Pressesprecher der Polizei bestätigte.

七六世代:日本改變的一代http://www.foreignaffairs.com/features/letters-from/japans-change-generation[台灣改變的一代,就在我們身上!]七六世代,指的是日本出生在19...
02/05/2014

七六世代:日本改變的一代
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/features/letters-from/japans-change-generation

[台灣改變的一代,就在我們身上!]

七六世代,指的是日本出生在1976年左右,正在逐漸發揮影響力的科技企業家。

他們來自更不受二戰歷史包袱與泡沫時代消費主義束縛的一代。他們相知並支持彼此,往往透過了日本商業網路以及國際社團。

儘管他們享受對政府的影響力與政府的支持,他們尚未尋求正式的政治變革。他們傾向先對付他們自己的社會問題。

七六世代正在透過三個方式改變日本社會:

1. 在那些缺乏政府回應的領域,發起自己的運動,散發自己的能量(孩童照護,災害支援);
2. 支持喚起日本生命力的政策(鼓吹留學以及在校英語指導);以及
3. 推動更自由主義及公開的公共氛圍(強調多樣性,婦女賦權以及個人主義)。

七六世代有能力反正日本的右翼旋風以及恐外仇恨言論,並且已在最近主導了日本新聞。事實上,他們也可能獲得長期的勝利--自由主義傾向在年輕一代日漸上升。

七六世代的崛起

近因:地震海嘯核災動搖了大眾對政府的信心。

第二,對南韓及中國崛起的焦慮,以及日本日漸老化並萎縮的人口,激使日本人認為:非改變不可。

第三,日本家庭結構的改變。現在三分之一的日本家庭是只由一個人組成的。二十年後,將達到百分之四十。他們不附著於任何保守價值,也沒有自己的家庭。同時,結婚率也在下降。35-44歲跟父母同住者已有總人口數百分之十六,即三百萬,2000年只有百分之十,這些人對現狀越來越感到挫折。

第四,世代轉換孕育了參與公民社會的新態度。在某程度上,是對享受奢侈的泡沫時代,卻留下停滯經濟的嬰兒潮世代的怨怒。嬰兒潮世代也更相信政府。

最後,可能最叫人吃驚的是,安倍晉三政府的辭藻實際上幫忙敲開了舉國的保守心態,讓新想法得以進入。包括女性在經濟力量上的重要性。

Typically in their thirties and forties, they are called nana roku sedai, or ’76ers, referring to tech entrepreneurs who were born around 1976 and are just now becoming influential. This group comes from a generation much less concerned with the historical baggage of World War II and the consumerism of their bubble-era forebears. They tend to know and support one another through Japanese business networks such as Japan Platform and NetAge, as well as through international groups such as the World Economic Forum in Davos and the Japan Society in New York. And although they enjoy influence with and support from the government, they have yet to seek change through the formal political system. For now, at least, they prefer to tackle societal problems on their own.

The ’76ers are remaking Japanese society in three ways: by launching their own initiatives where government responses are lacking (providing child care and disaster relief, for example), by supporting policies geared toward revitalizing Japan (advocating for study abroad programs and English instruction in schools), and by pushing for a more liberal and open public sphere (emphasizing diversity, women’s empowerment, and individualism).

Together, the ’76ers are capable of counterbalancing the right-wing blustering and xenophobic hate speech that has dominated the news about Japan recently. In fact, they are likely to win out in the long run; as in the United States, surveys reveal a gradually growing liberal bent in Japan, especially among young people. In October 2012, for example, a government survey found that fewer Japanese perceived gender inequality in the workplace than in the past, that more of them believed that equal educational opportunities for males and females existed, and that fewer young women aspired to be full-time homemakers. Another survey from the Pew Research Center showed that a majority of Japanese people now accept g**s and le****ns, and other polls have indicated a lack of interest in marriage among young people. Most Japanese are cautious about Japan’s rearmament. And these trends show no signs of slowing.

There are a number of factors behind the recent rise of the ’76ers, beginning with the March 2011 earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear crisis, which shook public confidence and challenged the status quo. Before the earthquake, the mentality was to “hold on to what you’ve got,” Hiromi Matsubara, the CEO of Surfrider Foundation Japan, told me. “But now everyone knows lifetime employment is over, the government sucks, and there is no social security. With no security, you might as well give it a try … People realized you can lose everything.”

The second contributing factor is growing anxiety about the rise of South Korea, which Japanese consider a business rival, and of China, which took Japan’s spot as the world’s second-largest economy in 2011. The aging and shrinking of the Japanese population are troublesome too. At this point, many Japanese have concluded that the country has no choice but to change. “Japan is under pressure from China and Korea, and Japanese people feel that pressure,” said Yuichi Hosoya, a professor at Keio University who advises the prime minister. “Some youth feel isolated or lost, so they are trying to have a stronger national identity. The weaker people [in society] will cling to a big, national identity, which Abe plays to, while the stronger ones are more global,” he said.

A third catalyst is the changing nature of the Japanese home. A third of all Japanese households are now occupied by a single person, up from about a quarter a decade ago and a fifth in 1980. By 2035, the figure will near 40 percent. According to Yoichi Nishimura, a board member of the Japanese newspaper Asahi Shimbun, these “so-called family refugees are not tied to conservative values but also … have no families of their own.” A related demographic trend is the decline of marriage. Single people aged 35 to 44 living with their parents now number three million, or 16 percent of the total population, a significant increase from 10 percent in 2000 and just two percent in 1980. These people, now entering middle age, are becoming frustrated with the status quo and their lack of options.

Fourth, a generational shift is fostering a new attitude toward participation in civil society. In some ways, the mood is a result of resentment toward the baby boom generation born in 1947–1949, which enjoyed the opulent bubble years, left behind economic stagnation, and was more trusting of the government. According to a recent study by the public relations firm Edelman, popular trust in government officials plummeted from 63 percent to eight percent after the 2011 earthquake. As Kensuke Onishi, the CEO of the nonprofit Peace Winds Japan, put it, “We feel that the baby boomer generation was selfish … And our generation, the babies of baby boomers, is more active in volunteer work. When I said I wanted to work at an NGO, the boomers were astonished; they said it was a waste and stupid. No one was proud of me in Japan. But now that’s changing.”

Finally, and perhaps most surprising, the Abe administration’s public rhetoric has actually helped open the national conversation up to new ideas. Although Abe’s record is mixed, many of the people I spoke to said Abe’s speeches on the importance of women to economic dynamism have allowed Japanese to speak more freely about diversity and gender in professional settings. “At present, most people think that men naturally hold management positions. But suddenly Abe is changing this perspective by saying that women’s roles should change, sparking a new debate,” said Koichi Kaneda of Takeda Pharmaceuticals, a company that has become a poster child for progressive policies.

01/05/2014

(節)經濟學人:美國威嚇力的下降http://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21601538-america-no-longer-alarming-its-foes-or-reassuring-its-friends-decline

美國與中國都希望在台灣深化與中國的經濟聯結後,台灣對正式獨立的熱情便會熄滅。...至少百分之七十的台灣人仍認為自己先是一個台灣人,後才是中國人。中國對台灣遲不屈服若失去耐心,可能將美國捲入非常困難的選擇之中。
Both big powers hope that Taiwan’s deepening economic ties with mainland China will dampen the island’s enthusiasm for formal independence. But as Yan Xuetong, a Chinese scholar, has noted, at least 70% of people on Taiwan still see themselves as “Taiwanese” first, “Chinese” second. One day Beijing’s impatience at Taiwan’s failure to submit may force America into very difficult choices. A 1979 law binds America’s government to deem any attempt at forcible reunification “as a threat to the peace and security of the Western Pacific Area and of grave concern to the United States”.

美國在亞洲的義務是細緻入裡的。在大部隊駐紮的地方如日韓,安全承諾是明確的。歐巴馬執政下,美國力量或多或少回推了中國霍霍磨刀的動作。如果中國威脅台灣,美國感到的是派出機艦充當仲裁人的"道德義務"。但是就算是在96台海衝突時,就算是最挺台灣最應派的美國國會議員私下也告訴官員說:你最好他媽的確定不會讓我們捲進跟中國人的戰爭裡。
America’s obligations in Asia are “nuanced”, says another senior figure. Where American troops are stationed in large numbers—in South Korea, or on the main islands of Japan—the security commitment is “absolute”. Under Mr Obama, American forces have pushed back (somewhat) against Chinese sabre-rattling in disputed seas. Should China threaten Taiwan, America would feel a “moral obligation” to send ships or planes to serve as a referee. Yet during previous crises, as in 1996, when China tested missiles before a Taiwanese election and America sent warships to the area, even hawkishly pro-Taiwan members of Congress privately told officials “you’d sure as hell better not get us into a war with the Chinese”, this source recalls.

01/05/2014

(節)經濟學人:台灣風起之時
http://www.economist.com/news/asia/21601553-president-bows-street-protests-against-nuclear-power-when-wind-blows

隨著群眾聚集越多,馬先生則與他的顧問們互相取暖。有一個顧問告訴總統:你用的每一個論點都是"百分百正確"的。麻煩的是,他說:沒有人聽。
As the crowds swelled, Mr Ma huddled with his advisers. One told the president that every argument he had used was “100% right”. The trouble is, he said, “nobody is listening”. He urged Mr Ma to back down rather than risk the consequences of Mr Lin’s death for the party’s standing and for peace on the streets. And so, with Taipei full of protesters, the prime minister, Jiang Yi-huah, announced the climbdown. The first of Longmen’s two reactors would undergo safety inspections and would then be mothballed. Construction of the second reactor would halt altogether. A popular referendum would take place before the plant ever started operating. It was an astonishing turnaround.

至於台灣的政治何去何從,街頭抗議如今已不只吸引眼球,更成為決定性的因素。新型式的抗議一開始也殺了個民進黨措手不及。...但是對民進黨也是有風險的。蔡英文說:你無法只憑社會運動的基礎來治理國家。你得回到政治上。
As for where Taiwan’s politics go from here, street protests are now not only a hallmark but a deciding factor. The anti-nuclear protests follow the occupation by students of Taiwan’s parliament, the Legislative Yuan, in protest against a trade deal with China. (Mr Ma partially backed down there, too.) The new style of demonstrations at first took the DPP by surprise. But some members now want a party that itself grew out of an earlier generation of protest to hitch its fortunes to the new activism. There are risks for the DPP, however. Though sympathetic to the protests’ aims, Tsai Ing-wen, favourite to be the party’s presidential candidate in 2016, says: “You can’t run a country on the basis of social movements. You have to go back to politics.”

街頭抗議揭露了對台灣政治機構缺陷的廣泛幻滅,同時也更讓它搖搖欲墜。馬先生成了跛鴨,卻還有兩年得走。台灣的未來如今愈發要在街頭上決定了。
The question is how that might happen. The street protests reflect widespread disillusion with the weakness of Taiwan’s political institutions, yet they have undermined them still further. Mr Ma is a lame duck with two years to run. More and more, Taiwan’s future could be decided on the streets.

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