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Valer Bolt, Darnytskyi District (2025)

29/07/2020

These factors remain very much in play. Yet what makes the case for the rally to extend further is that market positioning remains largely underweight on the euro. A structural shift in investor exposure would mean the trend has just begun.

Hedge funds are still rushing to cover short exposure in the spot and options market, while institutional investors have just started to add long positions, according to traders in Europe, who asked not to be identified because they are not authorized to speak publicly.

According to the latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission for the week through July 14, asset managers increased their long positions to over 300,000 contracts, while leveraged funds were short by more than 32,000 contracts.

29/07/2020

The fact that traders are essentially covering cash shorts is shown by price action in the euro-dollar pair. Any corrections have been shallow and the fear of missing out in rallies has seen investors rushing to buy fresh highs.

There’s a similar picture painted by risk reversals, a barometer of options positioning and sentiment, in the euro versus currency havens. Bearish sentiment in the euro versus the yen through option trades is now at its lowest level since early 2018, while against the Swiss franc the market started betting on gains last week.

This means there is plenty of room for the common currency to rise should the EU keep handling the pandemic effectively and if the economic recovery in the region keeps defying initial expectations.

29/07/2020

Technical charts and commercial investor positioning also point to a continuation in the rally. Momentum could take the euro above $1.18, with the dollar at risk of a deep drop in coming months.

According to CFTC data commercial investors, who are looking to hedge and thus trade in the opposite direction to anticipated price action, are adding more and more euro short positions. Historical patterns suggest that will be followed by the euro strengthening.

NOTE: Vassilis Karamanis is an FX and rates strategist who writes for Bloomberg. The observations he makes are his own and aren’t intended as investment advice
©2020 Bloomberg L.P.

28/07/2020

Investors were already generally optimistic about the Eurozone’s potential for recovery. The actions of the EU and European Central Bank (ECB) are only further boosting hopes for a Eurozone recovery.

As a result, while today’s Eurozone data was mixed it was not enough to offset recovery hopes.

Today’s Eurozone and German economic sentiment stats from ZEW showed slightly worse than forecast figures for Germany. However, analysts remain cautiously optimistic. According to Thomas Dvorak, Eurozone Economist at Oxford Economics:

28/07/2020

While this was not the pair’s weekly best, EUR/USD is once again trending higher this week. At the time of writing on Tuesday, EUR/USD is trending near a high of 1.1373.

Looking ahead, investors may be hesitant to make any big shifts on the Euro ahead of Thursday’s anticipated European Central Bank (ECB) policy decision.

Euro (EUR) Exchange Rates Find Support in Optimistic Eurozone Data
While this week’s Eurozone data has not been hugely surprising so far, it has been solid enough to help the Euro to hold its ground.

28/07/2020

Continued Signs of Eurozone Recovery Help Buoy Euro to US Dollar Exchange Rate Near Quarter Best
Euro to US Dollar Exchange Rate Continues to Test Highs despite Some Safe Haven Demand
Market uncertainty over the global coronavirus situation, as well as fresh trade tensions, have not prevented the Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate from trending higher. Euro (EUR) investors continue to find the shared currency appealing due to a strong Eurozone outlook.

This week could turn out similar to last week for EUR/USD. After opening last week at the level of 1.1247 last week, EUR/USD spent the week climbing higher and closed on Friday at 1.1294.

28/07/2020

After a staggering drop of 11.2% in GDP in April, Canada’s economy has been slowly improving. This has been reflected in recent data such as the June employment numbers, which saw the economy create 950 thousand jobs. If upcoming economic releases continue in this positive vein, the Canadian dollar could gain ground on the greenback. USD/CAD dropped 3.4% in Q2, as the Canadian dollar took advantage of broad weakness in its US counterpart.

27/07/2020

At 3:05 AM ET (0705 GMT), the dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, was down 0.2% at 96.448, not far from the June trough of 95.714. EUR/USD gained 0.2% to 1.1324, GBP/USD was up 0.2% at 1.2650, while USD/JPY was up 0.1% at 107.95.

The U.S. corporate earning season will start this week, and this is expected to offer more evidence of a recovery, admittedly from beaten down levels. The key question will be whether the valuations currently priced in are supported by the outlooks given by companies.

27/07/2020

This is despite the resurgence of the Covid-19 virus. The World Health Organization reported a record 230,370 new cases in 24 hours on Sunday. Roughly a quarter of these new cases are in the U.S., with the state of Florida reporting more new cases in 24 hours than hard-hit New York did in April.

Also helping the euro push higher against the dollar Monday was the decision of Fitch rating agency late Friday to confirm Italy's credit rating, with a stable outlook.

That said, these moves have been limited, and it’s difficult to see the catalyst for sharp moves in the dollar in the near term.

27/07/2020

“The ongoing rise in Covid-19 cases in the U.S. is preventing the market from turning bullish on risk (thus preventing a USD sell-off), while the put from the Federal Reserve and other central banks to do more if the situation warrants it prevents a sharp risk-off environment,” said ING, in a note to clients.

EUR/USD continues to trade around the 1.13 level which has transformed into a gravity line over the past month, ING added.

“This is likely to hold for now, with limited near term catalysts that would point to a break in the EUR/USD range trend and the July ECB meeting … unlikely to be a trigger point.”

26/07/2020

The better-than-expected housing data was offset by renewed a fall in oil prices and an uptick in safe-haven demand for the greenback.

Oil prices fell nearly 3%, the most in over two weeks, as growing Covid-19 cases have forced some states roll back reopening measures and raised investor concerns that strong gasoline demand will be short-lived.

26/07/2020

The move was largely expected given the favorable backdrop of low-interest rates and government stimulus that has helped cushion the fall out from job losses.

"Against that backdrop it is not so surprising that housing activity has been more resilient than many had been expecting," RBC said. "Government support programs like CERB payments mean that household incomes have probably held up significantly better than job markets to-date."

26/07/2020

Loonie Loses Ground as Oil Slump, Dollar Strength Offset Improved Housing Data
By Yasin Ebrahim

Investing.com – The loonie fell against the dollar on Thursday as falling oil prices and increased appetite for safe-haven demand offset data showing better-than-expected Canadian housing activity.

USD/CAD rose C$1.5358.

Canadian housing starts inched up to 212,000 in June, adding to strong gains following a bottom in April, and beating forecasts for a rise to 198,000.

24/07/2020

The U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies slipped 0.03% to 95.090 by 9:41 AM ET (2:41 AM GMT).

The USD/JPY pair was up 0.05% to 106.81.

The AUD/USD pair gained 0.03% to 0.7129 and the NZD/USD fell 0.06% to 0.6640, reversing earlier gains.

The USD/CNY pair fell 0.07% to 6.9750 and the GBP/USD pair was down 0,01% to 1.2727.

Dollar Down, With U.S. Bickering Over Further Stimulus Measures

24/07/2020

(Bloomberg) -- The forces behind the euro's recent strength suggest this may only be the first stage of a big market shift.

The currency’s 3% rally this month to near $1.16 has come on the back of dollar weakness due to narrowing bond-yield differentials and the U.S. struggle to deal with the pandemic, as well as the prospect of increased cohesion in the European Union after its agreement on a recovery fund.

These factors remain very much in play. Yet what makes the case for the rally to extend further is that market positioning remains largely underweight on the euro. A structural shift in investor exposure would mean the trend has just begun.

24/07/2020

Hedge funds are still rushing to cover short exposure in the spot and options market, while institutional investors have just started to add long positions, according to traders in Europe, who asked not to be identified because they are not authorized to speak publicly.

According to the latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission for the week through July 14, asset managers increased their long positions to over 300,000 contracts, while leveraged funds were short by more than 32,000 contracts.

23/07/2020

The USD/JPY pair was down 0.07% to 106.81.

The AUD/USD gained 0.24% to 0.6965, while the NZD/USD pair was down 0.08% to 0.6574.

The USD/CNY pair was up 0.06% to 7.0033. China is due to release its trade data for June on Tuesday, with a second round, including the second quarter GDP, due to be released on Thursday.

The GBP/USD pair jumped 0.24% to 1.2650.

23/07/2020

“We’ve seen a rapid rebound after a rapid decline in various economic data. But looking ahead, the improvement could slow or we could even [see] a deterioration given the second infections,” Masafumi Yamamoto, chief currency strategist at Mizuho Securities, told Reuters.

The U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies slipped 0.17% to 96.448 by 10:03 AM ET (3:03 AM GMT).

Valer Bolt

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