12/16/2025
Deep breath. Apology first.
We owe you a full forecast on Thursday’s severe potential and yes, we missed the original window and we're sorry for leaving y'all in suspense. Sadly, we're still very human and not computers. Sometimes life grabs us by the ankles, throws us into the trunk, and takes us on a joyride we absolutely did not RSVP for. We got kidnapped by happenstance. It happens.
The silver lining? It gave us time to let the latest model runs cook, simmer, and show their true colors - and since we are still a couple days out, this actually works in your favor because few things change faster than Indiana weather.
So, darlings, grab a mimosa (or tea for those of you who have to drive) and let’s unpack this over Tuesday brunch.
The SPC has already tagged extreme southern Indiana with a Marginal Risk, (dark green shaded area on the map) Level 1 out of 5 for severe weather, for Thursday. Are we shocked? Absolutely not. Evansville, once again, is being Evansville. We sigh. We pinch the bridge of our nose. We quietly ask who hurt you.
Low level moisture will surge north ahead of a fairly spicy cold front, bringing some weak destabilization thanks to this week’s temperature roller coaster that looks like it was generated by a lottery machine. Dewpoints in the mid 50s are trying to make a run for it, but they are probably going to struggle north of the Ohio River because yes, we are talking about snowpack in a severe weather discussion. Wild times. That snowpack is acting like a bouncer at the door saying “not today.”
This is good news for anyone who did not ask Santa for a personal spinny boi. Less good news for those of us who despise flooding, mud, and soggy everything.
Heavy rain is the main player here. Up to an inch is likely with locally higher amounts, starting late morning Thursday (between 8 and 10am EDT) and dragging itself across the state. Expect periods of thunder, lightning, and a few isolated damaging wind gusts. While rain will be widespread, the better severe potential stays parked down by the river in a broken down van.
Now let’s talk about the plot twist.
Behind this system comes a surge of icy cold air that may flip rain over to freezing rain or snow, especially in northern Indiana, before this whole mess finally wanders off into Ohio to spread its muddy legacy elsewhere. The snow may linger into Friday across the northern snowbelt courtesy of Lake Effect.
How big a temp difference are we talking? Ooooh you know... Highs will flirt with the upper 40s and mid 50s ahead of the front, then lows will crash into the teens and low 20s on the backside and stick around like a bad penny. Flash freezing and icy spots will absolutely be a concern. On the the bright side, we'll be back above freezing for Saturday.
Is this system terrifying? No.
Is it annoying? Extremely.
Is it something to pay attention to? Without question.
On top of the gusty winds, flooding is likely, especially with partially frozen ground and melting snow piling more water onto an already sloppy situation. We are not thrilled, not even a little, but we are also quietly rooting for the chaos gremlin bonus round: THUNDERSNOW! Yes! One of our most favorite winter phenomenon, thundersnow, could be on the table and we refuse to stop believing!
So secure those Christmas decorations before they take flight, stay alert if you live in flood prone areas, and plan for slower travel Thursday into Friday. Indiana weather is doing what it does best: being dramatic, inconvenient, and just spicy enough to keep us on our toes.
If anything changes, we'll keep you posted.
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(PRETTY PRETTY PLEASE?! With sugar on top?!)
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