Rolling Thunder Loss Prevention Organizational Team

08/26/2020

06/05/2020

Significant weather advisories are being issued for the line of thunderstorms now in Central and Southwestern Oklahoma now moving into South Central Oklahoma. As the administrator has posted, and I will confirm, these will make their way further Southeast. Speeds very but the average has been 40 MPH with increased speed coming from strong straight-line winds within the line and upper-air flow helping to push these Southeast.

Carter County should see these between 9:45 PM and 11 PM CDT. There is the potential for hail of up to quarter sized, (1 inch in size), and straight line winds of 65 MPH once they get to the area even though they will weaken some as they continue their southeastward movement.

Several monitoring systems are now on line and monitoring and I will update the group as soon as possible if there are any changes.

08/27/2019

A complex of severe thunderstorms has moved through and is continuing to impact the Oklahoma City metropolitan area. An outflow boundary was generated from the initial conflicts of Storms and is proceeding Southward across the state. A large number of power outages, over 43,000, currently impacting Oklahoma City area and surrounding communities. A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until midnight for portions of South Central, Central, Northeastern, and Eastern Oklahoma with an additional severe thunderstorm watch in effect until 6 a.m. for portions of South Central, and South Western, Southeastern Oklahoma. The important note here are two things. The first is the outflow boundary, or gust front. Has this proceed South and interacts with the warm humid air ahead of it, additional thunderstorms will develop. Some of these will become severe. In Oklahoma City the complex of storms generated 85 mile per hour winds in some locations. Damage is being reported across the city, and flooding is ongoing because the storms there are stationary. If you live in the Oklahoma City area, best advice I could give you a baby stay indoors. They are producing a significant amount of lightning which will impact those individuals who are subject to seizures. If you do have a medical condition such as seizures, and flashes of light impacted, stay inside, stay away from Windows. Because of the extreme wind gust, you should do that anyway. Remember, severe thunderstorms can produce wind gusts that are similar to a small tornado. Damage to roof tops, tree branches, power lines, windows, and small structures are likely with this system. Other impacts could be, the moving or shoving of a vehicle off the roadway if driving, impact a large box shaped high profile vehicles, damage to small structures, and Yard furniture being carried across large areas. These are also producing a significant amount of rainfall and visibilities will drop to near-zero making it very hard to see. Coupled with the flashes of lightning, this could cause significant driving hazards. Pull over to the side of the road and wait for the storm to pass. Because of the flash flooding do not drive across flooded roadways. Listen for further developments.

07/11/2019

IMPORTANT NOTICE CONCERNING THE GULF COAST - HURRICANE WATCHES POSTED FROM MOBILE ALABAMA TO NEW ORLEANS: The Tropical Cyclone Prediction Center is monitoring Tropical Depression Two (2) in the Northern Gulf of Mexico. Currently, there is the potential for it to be named sometime today if conditions continue to improve for development. At 7:00 AM CDT, Off-shore oil platforms just off the Coast of Mississippi reported sustained winds of 35 MPH, with a fairly organized center of low pressure located 115 miles Southeast of the Mouth of the Mississippi River, at 27.6N, 88.5W. Movement is 270° (Due west) at 5 MPH. Minimum central pressure was 1005 millibars, or 29.76 inches of mercury. Radar appears to indicate a broad center of circulation as of 7 AM with some confirmation from Bowie locations off the Mississippi Gulf Coast. Thunderstorms are cycling development on the Northeastern and Northern sides of the center of low pressure, and the center is moving into a favored area of development in the same areas very near the Loop Current. With current motion West development is anticipated to continue through the day with wind speeds exceeding 45 MPH by late this afternoon with deepening low pressure at its center. This will reach tropical storm status by late this evening obtaining the name Tropical Storm Barry. Flash and area flood watches and warnings have been issued for the Alabama, Mississippi, and part of the Florida Pan Handle Gulf Coastal areas with expansion into the Texas Gulf Coast regions by late this afternoon. Hurricane hunter aircraft are scheduled to fly out and take measurements to support information received by offshore oil platforms by this afternoon. When new information becomes available I will place that here. This does have the potential of becoming a hurricane by Saturday July 13. Residents of the Gulf Coast should routinely monitor forecasts as the threat for severe weather, flooding and advisories regarding hurricane development are anticipated.

05/25/2019

AN URGENT REQUEST TO OKLAHOMA REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER, AND MAJOR FLOODING ONGOING WITH POTENTIAL LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED - SHARE THIS INFORMATION ONCE POSTED: As many of you have been aware of, beginning in March I began monitoring of a developing weather situation that began impacting the State on May 18th, 2019. This has now become an historic event with regard to flooding in much of the Northeastern, Central, and Eastern Oklahoma watersheds causing major damaging flooding. There are 2 important statements I need to make. First, it's not over yet, there's more coming even though we have a brief break today. The Jet-Stream and upper-low pressure system has become very persistent in its location not having moved much at all in the last few days. Additional significant severe weather is likely tomorrow across portions of North Central, Northwestern, far Northeastern Oklahoma and again on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday of the upcoming week. Forecast river, lakes and stream stages are based on PAST rainfall amounts and not any additional amounts. For the Northeastern Oklahoma area in the Tulsa district, 72 gauges are ABOVE flood stage, and 14 are at MAJOR flooding. Miami Oklahoma is experiencing significant damaging flooding now with the gauge at Commerce along the Neosho River at 25 feet now. Forecast flood stage crest is at 29.51 feet, flood stage is at 15 feed, and major flooding starts to occur at 24 feet. In July of 2007, Miami saw 650 homes flood with many completely destroyed when the Neosho crested at 29.25 feet, meaning that this forecast stage is the 2nd highest if it crests at 29.51 feet. If any more rainfall happens over the next few days this will go HIGHER than that. The record is 34 feet set on July 16, 1951. There IS the potential that this will crest higher than that if the ore of engineers cannot control the levels as Grand Lake where the dam is located at. Grand Lake currently shows at below flood stage but this is not expected to remain that way. And this is only one of 72 gauges. So I have deep concerns for those areas. I expect that both Federal and State offices f emergency management will allocate additional resources to assist residence affected by the severe weather and flooding in all areas of Oklahoma, but at this point I do have concerns for management of flooding along the lakes and rivers here in Oklahoma. Miami has already lost about 500 total structures that I can count and if the river crests higher than the forecast 29.51 feet, well over 1,000 structures and 4,000 residents will have immediate devastating impact to lifestyle, and there will be immediate life-threatening flooding along the river. That's just one place though and with 72 reporting serious flooding now, I suspect this will only get much more significant.

On the link posted the map is interactive. The green dots represent rivers and lakes below flood stage. Yellow is action where it's at flood stage but action is required to protect life and property. Orange is above flood stage where minor flooding is happening but not life threatening. Moderate is in red, and there property is affected and some concern for life and property is warranted. Magenta is where major flooding is happening and life-threatening flooding with destruction to property is ongoing. Click on any one of the dots and there you'll find information about each gauge.

I will be available though home and with wife. I'll try to update everyone when I can. Be safe.

https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tsa

National Weather Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS)

05/22/2019

IMMEDIATE MESSAGE CONCERNING MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR OKLAHOMA TODAY WEDNESDAY MAY 22, 2019: The Storms Prediction Center in Norman has upgraded the risk for severe weather from marginal to moderate for a large portion of Northeastern and Eastern Oklahoma, and adjacent portions of Southwestern Missouri, Southeastern Kansas, and Northwestern Arkansas. The upper-storm system has significantly increased in strength and warm moist air has moved northward with the warm front further than expected. With strong winds aloft allowing for sheering thunderstorms will develop along the front and move Northeastward in response to the upper-low tracking to the Northeast just North of the State of Oklahoma. There is the potential once again for large and destructive tornadoes in the Moderate Risk area. The following major cities are impacted by this threat.

Tulsa...Tahlequah...Muskogee...Miami...Stroud.

There is an enhanced risk for severe weather impacting the area around the moderate risk roughly 80 miles or so from there affecting the following locations.

Oklahoma City...Shawnee...McAlester...Atoka...Norman...Moore.

The slight risk area has been modified as well and impacts the following areas 160 miles from the area of enhanced risk at the longest point but 40 miles from the western edge where the front and low pressure system are located.

Enid...Ponca City...Weatherford...Midwest City...Elk City...Paul's Valley...Durant...

FOR ARDMORE: Any thunderstorms that we see will not reach severe levels rapidly but we are in an area where marginal or isolated severe weather is possible. Heavy rainfall making the current flooding issue worse along the Red, Whitewash and Both Lake Murray, and Texoma.

I have been called to the terminal to monitor this situatin and will update those here when I can.

Brian R Cross.

05/21/2019

SEVERE WEATHER UPDATE: As of 1:26 AM CDT the activity has begun to settle some after cooling during the night. There is still a tornado watch, tornado watch number 203, effective until 5 AM CDT for much of Central, South Central, and Western Oklahoma. Although the line has weakened, strong straight line winds and isolated tornadoes are still posible with the warmer air southeast of the line and ample supply of Gulf moisture. This will move through the area and during the afternoon skies will clear west-to-east across the State. With the high risk threat no longer an issue and the threat for tornadoes slowly abating, I'm going to at least lay down and just keep aware of the severe storms as they move through. Severe thunderstorm warnings have been issued for the line for a section exiting Northwestern Texas entering South Central and Southwestern Oklahoma for straight-line winds and hail of up to 1.5" in diameter. Flooding is also a potential issue with this line as it moves through. With that good night all, and just stay safe and aware.

05/20/2019

SEVERE WEATHER UPDATE - PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION TORNADO WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE STATE OF OKLAHOMA, PART OF TEXAS. First of all I need to explain something. This is an extraordinary dangerous weather situation but it's important to understand that the general public should not panic in spite of the category of dangers out there with regard to the 2 watches issued now and more to follow as warranted. A tornado watch means "watch out and listen for warnings". The term particularly dangerous situation applies to times when large and destructive tornadoes and supercells are possible such as in this situation. EF5 tornadoes are possible in this situation and with this kind of danger it's right to place the label on the watches issued. With that let's get down to business.

Carter County and surrounding counties are in PDS Tornado Watch number 199 effective until 10 PM this evening. label Particularly Dangerous Situation appears on the watch and is what PDS stands for in some text. I've placed a link to the watch page at the Storms Prediction Center for you to see. There is another, PDS tornado watch number 197 covering Western and Central Oklahoma and Western, Northwestern Texas and a part of Southwestern Oklahoma effective until 8 P CDT.

Very large hail, dangerously strong straight line winds, vivid cloud-to-ground lightning, blinding rainfall, and large and destructive tornadoes of up to EF5 strength are all likely in any storms that get going as these develop. Cells that are isolated will be the most likely to produce large tornadoes.

I will be monitoring but it's important to understand that there's no way that I can post rapidly here on Facebook. So if you need specific warning information please listen to local warning information. I can notify a few by phone but I don't have server services to send out emergency messages do to financial expenses. I'd need a considerable amount to do that. But I can send out a group text message if you have a mobile phone.

Remember, tornadoes can and do develop without any advance warning and the best situation is if I can get warning formation out within the 13-minute period at best to take shelter. Even the emergency broadcast system struggles to get that out in that time. So it's best to be aware of your local weather in this situation and be prepared.

Link posted to watch page below.

Stay safe, and I will be online.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/

05/20/2019

CLICK "READ MORE" OR "CONTINUE READING" TO SEE THE ENTIRE POST. It has been many years since we've seen a high risk of severe weather here in our State. No doubt, Moore, Oklahoma City, El Reno remembers the events of 2013, 2011, and 1999. Oklahoman's have matured and become wise in the events of the past spiritually, and in the humanity we've had for one another in disasters like these. Once again our faith in the Lord God is tested as we face the tornado outbreak expected today so close to the memorials of the past events, and our humanity will be tested as we prepare and then respond to the destruction this system will cause as it moves into the area and passes through the State of Oklahoma and adjacent States of Texas, Kansas, Missouri and Arkansas. This season there is a new partner in my life along side of the Lord and I, and the Dawn of a new day wherein I can be who I am with Him at my side as I walk to do what I do to keep my friends and family safe. She has been the Dawn of a new life set before me in the storms that existed around me in a time where nights were long, and there was much darkness around me. Kaylee Dawn Cross has brought that Dawn to my life and now I am whole, a part of how I've seen our world with sun and cloud, rain and snow, wind and the Earth in its growth of flowers, plants and animals and man who live upon it. Now as I look upon the complex mapping o our day today, and prepare to keep my family safe as well as friends and anyone who wishes to follow me, I know all will be as He has it to be and trust in God's awesome wander, and pray that others see that they don't have to ask for God to be with them. He already is. And I thank the Lord for my wife, family, and those who have been there for us. God bless, and now I prepare for watch.

05/20/2019

Today is the day that I have been profiling now for the last month. The storms Prediction Center in Norman issued a high risk for severe weather for a large portion of Western Oklahoma, a small portion of Central Oklahoma, and a large portion of the western Texas Panhandle and Northwestern Texas for this afternoon and evening, but it's already beginning. Severe thunderstorm some of which have already produced tornadoes starting up on the Northern side of the high risk area in western Texas. As explained in an earlier post, conditions are right for the production of a large number and a large threat for big tornadoes today. Large and destructive tornadoes, and it does touch on the area there as you can see very close to Oklahoma City. These storms Prediction Center will continue to actively monitor this event, they may even go as far as launching a special sounding or weather balloon launch later this afternoon. I assure you there are a number of individuals out there who are professionals monitoring this event. I will be watching it also. It is possible that the high-risk area could expand, and have some changes based upon what's going on along the dry line out west. High-risk evaluations are very very very rare. The last time I high-risk was issued was in 2013. As far as Ardmore concerned we are in the moderate risk area just barely. We will see our activity later on this evening. Closer to Sunset. There is the potential that this could be expanded ever even changed again, based on conditions. I highly recommend that Ardmore residents keep an ear to their local television and radio, in an earlier post I left a list of four popular apps that can be found on Android devices. Later I will try to find the four most popular weather packages for iPhone. If you have any questions I will be monitoring today actively, send to them and messenger please and I will respond to you as quickly as I can. Everyone stay safe today, very dangerous time for the state of Oklahoma. Please be weather aware. And if you have not been trained in storm spotting or chasing, don't try it. This is not a day for it. Only seasoned it sputters should be out there, I have 46 years of training and know what I'm doing here. But at the same time I take that was a very humble approach. And I humble myself before the Lord God with his gracious power. I say gracious even in these times, because that is what he is. God bless you all. Map of risk area attached. The area enclosed in magenta is the high-risk area, the area enclosed in red is the moderate risk area, the area enclosed in Orange is the enhanced risk area, the area enhanced in yellow or outlined in yellow is the slight risk area, the area and dark green is the marginal risk for severe weather area, that should at least get you oriented to exactly where this is going on for now.

05/20/2019

To help those in finding useful apps for the Android device I've listed 4 of the better known and more reliable apps that will help you to keep track of watches, and warnings that will enhance the tornado and flash flood warning emergency messages you already get in those situations. These will provide you with localized weather information to help you prepare for situations like that of tomorrow - Monday May 20 2019. The first link on this list will appear in the post but I'm hoping all of the others will with information. The primary app is free but there are some costs for removal of advertisements and unlocking of professional features. Warning information is in the free version of all of the suggested apps.

A list of helpful apps through Google Play - Android.

RadarNow - https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.usnaviguide.radar_now

This app is free but has ads unless unlocked through in-app purchase to remove them. To allow for warnings and watches, be sure to allow access to your Location settings on your device (GPS).

News9 Weather (Oklahoma City) - https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.wdtinc.android.KWTV

KWTV Channel 9 Oklahoma City is one of the last locally owned stations in the entire United States with the largest number of storm trackers other than Spotter Network. David Payne is the chief meteorologist there, having replaced the famed Garry England when he retired. Along with experienced severe weather experts they currently have one of the most accurate, up-to-date weather tracing systems in operation. Though they have advertisements, it is well suited for any device.

MyRadar - Free Version - https://play.google.com/store/apps/developer?id=ACME+AtronOmatic+LLC

MyRadar has a number of live warning features that do not cost anything. There are in-app features you can purchase such as hurricane tracking, aviation information, Earthquake info, wildfire info, etc. But severe weather warnings are free as of last update. Warnings appear as push notifications so yu'll have to allow that and location access to give you the best chance at getting important warnings.

WeatherLive - https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.apalon.weatherlive.free

WeatherLive free is a highly integrated weather monitoring system that will display important warnings and watches for your area. There are additional apps that can be purchased for storm-chasing usage and other things but the free version will work. This must have access to network (can use either cell data or wifi), location for GPS, and the free version does have advertisements that apear on the screen but do not take over any other app. Removal of the advertisements is $4.99 / Month or $19.95 / year. Free version is the most popular.

If you have any questions feel free to contact me.

Brian R Cross.

05/19/2019

48-HOUR NOTICE TO PREPARE FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER - OKLAHOMA: A powerful upper-storm is set to move across the area bringing with it the chance for significant severe weather including the potential for large and destructive tornadoes on Monday May 20, 2019. The Storms Prediction Center in Norman has officially posted a MODERATE RISK of severe weather as of the 3-day outlook this morning, however there is the potential that conditions will favor the issuance of a rare HIGH RISK assessment of severe weather. Because of this potential I am prepared for monitoring of this system as it moves through the area. Ardmore at this point is in the moderate risk area for Monday, with changes possible as the system gets closer to us and important weather balloon launches gather data for models to run properly both on Sunday evening May 19th's sounding at 7 PM and Monday morning's soundings at 7 AM May 20th. There is still one more potentially significant weather event similar to the May 20th tornado outbreak potential, one more is possible on or about the week of Sunday May 26 through Saturday June 1 2019 which includes Memorial Day. After that things will begin to settle down as we begin entering a warm, humid Summer time pattern in the State of Oklahoma. During this time beginning this week large teams of researches and scientists as well as professional spotters, and storm chasers will be out involved in research. I will be watching these events closely and posting regularly here, and on my group page and web page found here on Facebook. IF possible and if there is anything to come near where we are, I may go live. If you have any questions please send me a private message. I am online answering a few now and will complete that work and then turn-in for the night with my wife.

05/10/2019

OKLAHOMA IN A BRIEF BREAK FOR TORNADO SEASON: Over the next 8 days we'll be seeing a break in the severe weather here in the State. The next storm system is small and though it will pass near the State it's not expected to have the right conditions for development of severe weather. The reason why is in the explanation below this paragraph in the technical section. The next shot though at severe weather begins on or around May 18, next Saturday. During that time from May 18 through May 26, several rounds of significant severe weather are anticipated. Some will have more severe weather than other times, and there is the potential for one or two historic events unfolding in Oklahoma and much of the Southern Plains States. This will be closely watched. Between May 13 and May 17 both Kaylee Dawn Cross my Wife, and I will be out of pocket. With severe weather not expected next week we are using that time for us.

TECHNICAL INFORMATION: Last week's system has now moved East-Northeastward and a second system has set up just south of the Gulf Coast States of Texas and Louisiana for the moment. This is helping to keep both upper-air flow aloft and Gulf moisture from moving Northward into the area, from the convective activity along the Gulf and the Jet-Stream taking a break from the area with the passage of a weak upper-level low pressure system now exiting the Southwestern US. The weak upper-low will move across the area this weekend and should be out of the area by early Sunday evening. Ahead of this system there will be some showers, perhaps some thunderstorm activity mainly overnight tonight and through the morning Saturday. Once it moves out the Jet-stream will move Northward ahead of a very powerful complex of upper-air low pressure systems that will slowly move Eastward towards the area. They will arrive on Saturday May 18th, and bring back with it a strong jet-stream aloft. Several models seem to agree on development of a complex weather system with a dry-line, warm front, cold front and centralized low-pressure systems at the surface riding the Jet-Stream northeastward ahead of the center of the upper-level low. If this happens, this will bring rich amounts of Gulf Moisture northward into the State of Oklahoma allowing for waves of severe weather to form along the dry-line, warm front, cold front daily until the main upper-low moves through. Monitoring of the jet-stream is without doubt important since sheering needed for thunderstorm development to become tornado producing will be relevant to availability of energy from the Jet-Stream, temperatures, and availability and how deep the moisture is. Some models have suggested that a weak cap may develop helping to keep convective activity down initially and this lead to explosive development and enhance the possibility of super-cell development until the primary vortex or upper-level low pressure system moves through.

There is the possibility that one of these rounds just ahead of the main storm system could produce a round of severe weather with large and destructive long-track tornadoes, and flooding at any time between Saturday May 18th, through the following Sunday May 26 2019. There is no real clue as to exactly where at this point but from experience this favors the States of Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Arkansas, Northern Texas, the Texas Pan Handle, Southeastern Colorado, Northwestern Louisiana, Iowa, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Southern Nebraska. At this point the highest threat seems to be in the Central, Southern, Northeastern, Northern and Eastern Oklahoma areas and far Southwestern Missouri and Southeastern Kansas.

© Brian R Cross.
Friday May 10, 2019, 4:06 PM CDT.

Contact me if necessary for more information.

05/08/2019

IMPORTANT MESSAGE FOR ARDMORE RESIDENTS: The Storms Predicton Center in Norman has issued tornado watch number 149 effective until 5 AM CDT for a large portion of Southwestern, Central, Northeastern, Northern, and a small portion of South Central Oklahoma. To orient those with the watch issued, Ardmore is on the very Eastern edge of the watch. But, officially Maryetta is NOT in the watch. Here's the important part. Because of how these are lined up, it's still possible to have a tornado form IN and CLOSE to the watch area when it's issued. These can change their forward speed and I'll explain this in the next paragraph. Click "continue reading" for more information or "see more".

FOR ARDMORE, SPRINGER, MARYETTA, LAKE MURRAY AREAS: West of the area severe weather has been ongoing and there have been tornadoes reported. Temperatures are still very warm and moisture needed for the formation of storms is in place. Above us, winds are such that storms can spin if they get isolated outside of the line formed west of us. Along with that winds at the ground level are so that even in the line of storms they can from time to time spin allowing for dangerous rain-wrapped tornadoes within it. Storms that spin outside of the line will have the potential to produce moderately strong tornadoes through the time the watch is issued. They too can be rain-wrapped and hard to see. The line is moving East at 25 MPH but the storms are moving faster along the line to the Northeast at 35-45 MPH. Any individual storms will do the same if they form ahead of the line and this is possible overnight. Based on what's going on now it's looking like Ardmore and the area nearby will start to see these sometime after 3 AM but this could start as late as 5 AM right as the watch expires. They may be another one issued later on tonight for that reason.

WHAT YOU SHOULD DO: If you have a weather radio have it nearby. Have your cell phone nearby so that if there is a tornado warning issued you'll hear it. Use a well-known weather app such as WeatherLive, MyRadar, or anything that ties directly to the National Weather Service for Android or Apple. There are free apps out there but they may have advertisements. Tornado warnings and flash flood warmings are sent to ALL cellular devices using the Emergency Message System to alert you of those types of warnings. Where possible, check the latest information using your device, or television or radio. Remember, tornadoes can and do occur with little or no advance warning because of how fast thy can develop and then disappear. Also, unless you are a trained or seasoned storm spotter tornadoes at night are very hard to see. If you're not trained, don't go looking for them. Take shelter if a tornado warning is issued. These will have strong straight line winds and could also produce very heavy rainfall, making even harder to see and can produce some localized flooding. These have the potential to produce large hail if they are isolated from the main line and may have some pockets of large hail in the line as well.

I'll be online tonight. Kaylee Dawn Cross is with me and I'm at the terminal watching for severe weather as it gets closer to us.

Most important is that you NOT panic. Take your safe-room precautions and just be ready if a tornado warning is issued or if you do see a tornado / funnel cloud. A tornado watch means "watch out". Only if a tornado is seen on radar by the National Weather Service, or seen by a trained spotter is there a warning issued. Its then you take cover immediately.

If you have questions or concerns contact e.

Brian Cross. Site Administrator.