Geopolitical Futures

24/08/2025

An All-Time High in Co***ne Production

This, despite a relatively small area it can made in. Details in our new Weekly Graphic:

22/08/2025

Remittances play a critical role in the Mexican economy. Starting Jan. 1, 2026, the U.S. government will place a 1 percent federal tax on all outgoing remittances and will be charged to U.S. nationals, green card holders and non-citizens who send payments. Details in this week's free graphic:

21/08/2025

Last week’s demonstrations in Serbia marked a dramatic escalation in a protest movement that began late last year over the collapse of a train station canopy in Novi Sad. The tragedy, which killed 16 people, was widely blamed on corruption and government negligence, and triggered calls for accountability, fair elections and an end to President Aleksandar Vucic’s authoritarian practices. Though the demonstrations in Belgrade and Novi Sad on Aug. 13 were the largest yet, and saw the most violent clashes with police, protests have occurred in towns and villages across Serbia.

The unrest in Serbia cannot be understood in isolation. Surrounded by NATO member states, a candidate to EU accession but aggressively courted by Moscow, Serbia is in the middle of a geopolitical tug of war. And if Serbia’s internal crisis worsens and spills into its neighbors, NATO and the EU could find themselves consumed by yet another crisis on an already destabilized front. - GPF’s Antonia Colibasanu

20/08/2025

19/08/2025

GPF Chairman George Friedman is back with another bonus clip from our recent ClubGPF live discussion, breaking down U.S. command of the seas and whether he thinks the fleet will be tested with a major war in the next decade.

The United States military has gone through many evolutions, from technological to structural, over the decades. Maintaining dominance in the Atlantic theatr...

19/08/2025

Is Israel’s plan for the Middle East also a spiritual mission? GPF's Hilal Khashan examines the vision of Netanyahu's Greater Israel project for regional peace, particularly as the Trump administration plans to expand the 2020 Abraham Accords to other hesitant Arab countries.

18/08/2025

Follow the Money From the US to Mexico
A new tax raises concerns over remittances.
Remittances play a critical role in the Mexican economy. Since 2015, total annual remittances to Mexico contributed more to Mexico’s gross domestic product than revenue from oil exports. Since 2019, income from remittances represented a larger share of Mexican GDP than did foreign direct investment. Many households in Mexico’s poorer southern states rely on remittances to meet their basic needs. Starting Jan. 1, 2026, the U.S. government will place a 1 percent federal tax on all outgoing remittances and will be charged to U.S. nationals, green card holders and non-citizens who send payments. The tax will apply to cash-based in person payments like money orders, cashier’s checks and other similar instruments. It will exempt electronic fund transfers from U.S. accounts and those funded by a U.S. debit or credit card. Though the 1 percent tax rate is much lower than the initially discussed 5 percent and 3.5 percent rates, concerns remains over the potential impact it may have on income flows to Mexico’s southern states. In addition to exploiting the exempted transfer methods, those sending remittances may also start exploring other methods such as cryptocurrencies that that are more difficult for the U.S. to track.

18/08/2025

New Feature at GPF
George Friedman answers your questions and comments on the week's most pressing geopolitical developments, each week subscribers receive this new column. Join our community of readers today:

Question: Hi George. Please, no more AI-generated articles! They lack the insight and brevity normally associated with your team. This is the fifth or

15/08/2025

Artificial intelligence is emerging as the strategic high ground in warfare, promising faster targeting, smarter weapons and operations beyond human capacity. Read new analysis on risk and reward in the AI arms race, written by GPF's Andrew Davidson, not by AI:

Artificial intelligence is emerging as the strategic high ground in warfare, promising faster targeting, smarter weapons and operations beyond human

15/08/2025

Sudan’s oil and gold wealth continues to fuel the country’s ongoing civil war. The RSF, led by Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, controls much of Darfur’s gold fields, using the proceeds to finance arms purchases. The UAE, despite denying involvement, has repeatedly been linked to large weapons shipments to the RSF, routed through Chad and Libya via territory held by Gen. Khalifa Haftar. The SAF also accuses Haftar’s forces of joining RSF attacks.

15/08/2025

The Thailand-Cambodia Border Dispute
A seemingly small affair belies broader national security interests. Details in our Weekly Graphic: