Geopolitical Futures

09/18/2026

Weather has become a geoeconomic variable. Extreme heat, drought, weak rainfall and flooding can alter the geography of production, restrict export availability, raise transport and input costs, and redistribute economic advantages between food exporters and import-dependent countries.

In this month’s issue of GeoEconomic Lens, we examined weather-related impacts on global agriculture. China is potentially the most consequential factor in Asia because of the sheer scale of its grain production. China’s immediate threat is not simply drought: Heat, localized dryness, flooding, waterlogging and typhoon damage are occurring simultaneously in different producing regions, making the final national outcome difficult to infer from temperature headlines alone.

For the full analysis, and much more head to
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09/17/2026

The conflict between Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s Houthi rebels exposes a strategic weakness of the Arab world. Iran is using the conflict to disrupt Red Sea traffic and thus gain leverage in its war with the United States, while the Houthis are using the war to consolidate their power at home. The region’s three principal powers – Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan – will eventually have to reach an understanding with the Houthis that limits their ambitions and weakens their ties to Tehran.

This plays into Washington’s broader strategy to focus on the Western Hemisphere while enabling regional actors to assume greater responsibility in the Eastern. - Kamran Bokhari

09/15/2026

🌐 In today's Memo:
A Russian warship fired flares at a Danish helicopter over the Baltic Sea on Sept. 14, according to the Danish government, which said the incident occurred during a “routine” monitoring operation. Denmark summoned the Russian ambassador to Copenhagen in response. Moscow has not commented as of writing. Early Sept. 15, NATO fighter jets shot down a drone that had entered Lithuanian airspace, likely from neighboring Belarus, officials said. Poland also reported “aviation operations” in its airspace due to Russian “jet-powered unmanned aerial vehicles” conducting strikes in Ukraine.

Why it matters: Moscow is using low-cost, deniable tools like flares and drones to probe NATO’s air defenses and political cohesion without triggering its collective defense clause. The Baltic approaches, especially the Danish straits, are critical for EU energy, grain and container flows. Repeated close encounters risk raising insurance costs and rerouting for commercial shipping.

09/14/2026

After a 286-day deployment that included 264 consecutive days at sea to support operations in the Middle East, the USS Abraham Lincoln reached Thailand in early September. The USS George Washington, which had been in Japan, replaced it, so while the United States was able to maintain carrier coverage in the Middle East, it could do so only by removing the Western Pacific’s forward-deployed carrier. The U.S. also moved some THAAD interceptor rounds from South Korea to the Middle East. Washington maintained carrier coverage and missile-defense capacity in one theater by drawing on forces and munitions assigned to another.

To be clear, none of these moves left East Asia undefended. South Korea still had its THAAD launchers, its radars and its broader alliance architecture. Other U.S. and allied forces remained in place. What declined was military depth: the forces, readiness and munitions available to sustain one conflict while absorbing another. This kind of tradeoff is inevitable when restricted access or limited allied capacity places greater demand on U.S. capabilities shared across theaters. Ultimately, U.S. resources can be moved around more easily and quickly than they can be restored.

The result is an asymmetry that regional powers can exploit. They can’t necessarily match U.S. power, but they can concentrate forces closer to home, and since they are fighting for territorial control and political survival, they tend to have higher risk tolerances than the United States. In that sense, they don’t need to defeat the U.S. militarily. They need only to inflict enough pain on the margins to affect U.S. priorities. - Andrew Davidson

09/14/2026

Washington’s direct negotiations with Moscow over Ukraine and its demand that Europe take the lead in defending itself are two sides of the same strategy. Kamran Bokhari has this analysis of Europe’s post-American security order:

Washington’s transition from a post-World War II order to one that offloads security responsibility to regional partners puts Europe in a difficult

09/13/2026

What does the recent AfD regional victory in Germany mean for the nation and for Europe as a whole? George Friedman discusses the rise of the far right, as well as the future of European geopolitics in places like Hungary and Poland.

09/11/2026

Today we published the new September issue of GeoEconomic Lens, focusing on how pressures such as sanctions, extreme weather and infrastructure bottlenecks are increasingly converging to shape the global economy.

Our feature article, “A Different Kind of Investor Climate,” breaks down how disruption around the Black Sea and constraints on major trade routes, simultaneous weather shocks across several producing regions can therefore have consequences well beyond the farm gate.

If you run a business or have investment decisions to make, or just enjoy a deeper knowledge of the impact of geopolitics on a nation’s economy and its components, our goal is to provide a lens through which to focus and better understand the most important connections.

It’s not too late to subscribe to GeoEconomic Lens today and receive your copy of the new issue of Lens.
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09/11/2026

Sign up to attend this month’s ClubGPF Live Discussion with GPF Chairman George Friedman and Analyst Ridvan Bari Urcosts and you’ll also gain exclusive Club access for a full 12 months
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09/10/2026

U.S. lawmakers have proved unusually unified when it comes to African trade. On Sept. 2, President Donald Trump signed legislation extending the African Growth and Opportunity Act, or AGOA, until the end of 2028. The measure reached his desk after passing easily through both houses of Congress. That vote completed congressional consideration and followed an earlier vote for a standalone renewal, which also breezed through the House. Though the final measure was attached to a wider government funding bill, the pattern is clear: Three overwhelming votes show that support for AGOA is bipartisan.

The reason is that AGOA is no longer viewed solely as a development program but as part of a wider contest for influence in Africa. China has displaced the U.S. as Africa’s largest single-country trading partner, embedded itself across infrastructure and resource supply chains, and extended tariff-free access to almost every African country. Maintaining AGOA is one of the few steps Washington can take to prevent its position from slipping further and to show that it’s going to compete in Africa.

Beyond the relatively small volume of trade that actually moves through AGOA, the extension therefore matters symbolically, signifying Africa’s growing importance to U.S. economic security, especially with regard to access to critical minerals. It also gives the U.S. leverage over trade policy. - Ronan Wordsworth

09/10/2026

Russia’s invitation to the G20 and Trump’s economic olive branch, the implications of Russia potentially supplying advanced arms to Iran, and the unpredictable nature of Trump and intelligence-led negotiations, all part of this week’s clip from Talking Geopolitics with George Friedman. https://youtu.be/xA6LBAYx4R8?is=4bw30hFbukic0sFz