Geopolitical Futures

11/16/2025

Fundamentally, although the U.S. and Israel agree on countering Iranian influence in Syria and Gaza, they sharply differ over Turkey’s role; the U.S. views Turkey as a tool of containment against Iran, whereas Israel perceives it as a new vector of risk.

If Syria is the keystone of the Trump administration’s Middle East strategy, Gaza is its proving ground. The immediate priority is operationalizing the ISF, which will require at least eight states with competing interests to work in concert, under U.S. guidance. There is no precedent for a large-scale Arab and Muslim joint task force stabilizing an insecure environment without active U.S. involvement, making Gaza a litmus test of the region’s capacity to assume even temporary security responsibilities. - Kamran Bokhari

11/14/2025

Russia's war with Ukraine is about to enter yet another winter. Meanwhile in the US, Donald Trump is turning his attention to Russia's southern border in an effort to woo the nations of the South Caucasus with diplomacy. What are the US' goals and what does it hope to gain in pulling these nations closer while Russia is distracted in its fight against NATO to the West?

Talking Geopolitics host Christian Smith is joined by GPF Chairman George Friedman to make sense of the latest developments.

Russia's war with Ukraine is about to enter yet another winter. Meanwhile in the US, Donald Trump is turning his attention to Russia's southern border in an ...

11/14/2025

11/14/2025

The World Bank predicts a widening imbalance between supply and demand in the energy market in 2026. Rising oil output, particularly from OPEC+ countries that are gradually restoring production volumes, could exacerbate the glut and place additional downward pressure on prices.

11/13/2025

Sudan is home to 570 tribes, 57 ethnic groups and nearly 60 separatist movements. The fragmented country has seen only intermittent periods of democratic rule. Immediately after its independence in 1956, the southern part of the country took up arms against the government in Khartoum to protest economic deprivation, gross political underrepresentation and the official policy of proselytizing the south to Islam. Amid ethnic and religious conflict throughout the country, South Sudan won its independence in 2011.

The 2020 Juba Peace Agreement stipulated the division of Sudan into three semi-independent states – Darfur, South Kordofan and Blue Nile – in addition to the states controlled by the central Khartoum government in the north, center and east.

11/12/2025

Last week, U.S. President Donald Trump met in Washington with the leaders of Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan – all former

11/11/2025

The most crucial partnership may not include the US at all: George Friedman on the Quad alliance

When it comes to global alliances, reliability cuts both ways. In this clip from our recent episode of Talking Geopolitics, host Christian Smith and GPF Chairman George Friedman dive into the Quad — the uneasy partnership between the U.S., India, Japan, and Australia — to unpack who’s reliable and who may be slipping away. In this alliance created to counter China, is India still on board, and what happens when US, in the midst of its Trump-era, gets asked the same question back?
https://youtu.be/geR7QplrS84

11/10/2025

Poland: The Unexpected Power

Poland has come a long way in recent decades, from being under Soviet control with limited opportunities for growth, to being both a growing economic and military power after gaining its independence. Now it is about to be part of the G20 and hosts the 3rd largest military force in NATO.

In this clip from our recent episode of Talking Geopolitics, GPF Chairman George Friedman joined host Christian Smith to discuss his forecast for Poland's evolution from his 2009 book, The Next 100 Years, and how geography plays a major role in shaping Poland's future.

Poland has come a long way in recent decades, from being under Soviet control with limited opportunities for growth, to being both a growing economic and mil...

11/10/2025

The Worsening Oil Glut
Brent crude will fall to its lowest level in five years in 2026, according to World Bank forecasts.
The World Bank predicts a widening imbalance between supply and demand in the energy market in 2026. Rising oil output, particularly from OPEC+ countries that are gradually restoring production volumes previously withdrawn under voluntary cuts, could exacerbate the glut and place additional downward pressure on prices. However, there is little reason to expect that rising supply will be met with equivalent demand. Global economic growth remains slower than expected, constrained by trade tensions and political uncertainty. China, a key energy consumer, is still experiencing a slowdown in purchasing, keeping demand subdued.
The World Bank expects this imbalance to further depress energy prices and forecasts that Brent crude will fall to its lowest level in five years in 2026. Many governments see lower energy prices as a tool to curb inflation and sustain economic growth and social stability – ongoing challenges for most economies. Yet, factors beyond supply and demand are increasingly influencing price dynamics. Uncertainty in trade policy and rising logistics costs could significantly affect market conditions. Continued geopolitical tensions and conflicts – along with expanded sanctions on one of the world’s largest energy producers, Russia, and the difficulty of quickly replacing Russian exports – could push oil prices above baseline forecasts.

11/09/2025

China, Russia and Iran have certain geopolitical imperatives they can’t achieve without first reaching some kind of accommodation with the United States. Beijing needs tariff relief to stabilize its economy. Moscow can’t extricate itself from Ukraine without freeing itself from U.S.-led sanctions. And Tehran must safeguard its regime amid a floundering political economy and strategic setbacks.

All three nations can be expected to offer some combination of tactical concessions, backchannel engagement and selective cooperation as each tests U.S. resolve. - Kamran Bokhari for GPF https://geopoliticalfutures.com/why-washingtons-adversaries-must-find-accommodation/

11/09/2025

The Worsening Oil Glut
Brent crude will fall to its lowest level in five years in 2026, according to World Bank forecasts. More details in our new Weekly Graphic:

(click to enlarge) The World Bank predicts a widening imbalance between supply and demand in the energy market in 2026. Rising oil output, particularly

11/07/2025

Russia’s New War of Attrition
A battle is raging in Pokrovsk, located in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donetsk. It is part of Russia’s attempt to encircle Ukrainian forces stationed there. The intent is to take control of a strategic area near the Black Sea, outside the region that Russia occupied during the more stable phases of the war.

What’s more interesting than the strategy is the tactics Russia is employing – far different from what it has used in the past. The intent here is to systematically destroy Ukrainian forces in smaller, multiple engagements consisting of commensurately smaller forces. The goal is not to break through Ukrainian forces but to disperse them.