Geopolitical Futures

12/19/2025

12/18/2025

Pressure is building on Ukraine and Russia to end their nearly four-year war, setting off a scramble for leverage that is unnerving some of their neighbors. One of the hottest areas of contention is the Black Sea, where escalating attacks by both sides have drawn condemnation, warnings and urgent calls for diplomacy from the Turkish government.

What Ankara fears most in this situation is an escalation spiral that leaves the Black Sea an irreversibly militarized, Russian-dominated space. - Antonia Colibasanu

Pressure is building on Ukraine and Russia to end their nearly four-year war, setting off a scramble for leverage that is unnerving some of their

12/18/2025

The hype surrounding artificial intelligence tends to elide some if its drawbacks – namely, that it consumes vast amounts of energy, and that it is therefore particularly vulnerable to shocks in energy supply and demand. The United States cannot fully capitalize on AI’s benefits if it can’t generate enough energy to fuel it.

12/16/2025

The release of the 2025 U.S. National Security Strategy has brought into focus a fundamental tension that has been simmering since before President Donald

12/15/2025

As tensions rise between Washington and Moscow, a new chessboard is emerging—not in Eastern Europe, but in the Caribbean.

As tensions rise between Washington and Moscow, a new chessboard is emerging—not in Eastern Europe, but in the Caribbean. From the U.S.’ war on drug cartels ...

12/15/2025

Sign up to attend this month’s special ClubGPF Live Discussion with George Friedman and our team of analysts, coming up this Tuesday, and you’ll also gain exclusive Club access for a full 12 months: https://geopoliticalfutures.com/join-clubgpf-bundle/

12/15/2025

AI’s Built-In Vulnerabilities
Scarcity and energy are potential long-term problems.
The hype surrounding artificial intelligence tends to elide some if its drawbacks – namely, that it consumes vasts amounts of energy, and that it is therefore particularly vulnerable to shocks in energy supply and demand. The United States cannot fully capitalize on AI’s benefits if it can’t generate enough energy to fuel it. This is no small task considering much of America’s infrastructure is old and in need of repair. Even if the U.S. could generate enough energy to power data centers today, it couldn’t guarantee secure and reliable transmission as demand on aging systems increases.
Moreover, data centers themselves are concentrated in the hands of the U.S. government and a few select tech firms. Smaller companies developing AI do not have the capital to build their own infrastructure, so they need to rent resources from the bigger players. Until grids can be built to handle projected supply, these companies will compete with consumers for supply, which, in turn, will put upward pressure on prices.

12/14/2025

Why is Russia barely mentioned in Trump's new National Security Strategy?

The National Security Strategy of the United States of America Dec. 9, 2025 Question: In the 2025 National Security Strategy document, Russia’s relevance

12/13/2025

As Washington shifts the burden of regional security onto its allies, U.S. adversaries are moving to exploit the resulting power vacuums. Nowhere is this more apparent than in the Western Pacific, where China has sharply escalated pressure on Japan to prevent it from emerging as a regional security actor.

As Washington shifts the burden of regional security onto its allies, U.S. adversaries are moving to exploit the resulting power vacuums. Nowhere is this

12/13/2025

AI’s Built-In Vulnerabilities
Scarcity and energy are potential long-term problems. Details in our new free graphic:

(click to enlarge) The hype surrounding artificial intelligence tends to elide some if its drawbacks – namely, that it consumes vasts amounts of energy,

12/12/2025

12/11/2025

🌐 In today’s Memo: Russia-Ukraine Resolution
Washington has reportedly put forward a plan for Ukraine's reconstruction and Russia's rehabilitation.

Postwar agenda. The United States has sent to its European partners a series of documents outlining a plan for Ukraine’s reconstruction and Russia’s