Geopolitical Futures

07/07/2025

🌐 The head of Russia’s Dagestan region, Sergey Melikov, expressed concerns about deteriorating relations between Russia and Azerbaijan, most recently due to a police raid last month of several ethnic Azerbaijanis’ homes in the city of Yekaterinburg that resulted in two deaths and several injuries. Melikov said there have been many attempts to “provoke” discord between Dagestanis and Azerbaijanis, and urged people not to “stoop to everyday nationalism.”

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov also commented on the issue, saying the tensions between Moscow and Baku can be resolved constructively. The president of Turkey, a key ally of Azerbaijan, said Ankara was monitoring the situation and called on the parties to exercise restraint.

07/07/2025

Cautiously Optimistic EU Economic Data
In the first quarter, the eurozone doubled its growth rate from the previous quarter.
In the first quarter of 2025, the eurozone recorded 0.6 percent quarter-on-quarter GDP growth, doubling the 0.3 percent rate seen in the fourth quarter of 2024. Year-over-year, GDP rose by 1.5 percent, up from 1.2 percent in the previous quarter. Ireland posted the strongest performance in the European Union – a striking 9.7 percent GDP increase over the first quarter of 2024 – driven largely by a spike in pharmaceutical exports to the United States ahead of anticipated tariffs.
Household consumption contributed 0.1 percentage points to overall EU growth, while government consumption held steady. Employment in the eurozone rose by 0.2 percent from the previous quarter, supporting the modest expansion. Croatia and Spain saw the largest employment gains, while Romania, Estonia, Lithuania and Poland posted declines. Altogether, the data suggest cautious optimism for the EU economic outlook, underpinned by steady consumption and modest job growth.

07/05/2025

In the first quarter of 2025, the eurozone recorded 0.6 percent quarter-on-quarter GDP growth, doubling the 0.3 percent rate seen in the fourth quarter of 2024. Altogether, the data suggest cautious optimism for the EU economic outlook, underpinned by steady consumption and modest job growth.

(click to enlarge) In the first quarter of 2025, the eurozone recorded 0.6 percent quarter-on-quarter GDP growth, doubling the 0.3 percent rate seen in

07/03/2025

Recent developments could be initial indicators of Belarus’ return to a policy of balancing between East and West. While this posture previously irritated its closest ally in Moscow, the Kremlin could have an interest in supporting the rapprochement this time around.

At the annual Eurasian Economic Forum hosted in Minsk last week, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said his country’s foreign policy would

07/02/2025

Can Turkey and Saudi Arabia Be Friends? | ClubGPF Preview with Kamran Bokhari

Rivalry and alliances in the Middle East go back centuries and have shaped the geopolitics of this region in a major way. On this clip of a recent ClubGPF Podcast+ episode, GPF contributing analyst Kamran Bokhari joined Christian Smith to examine the complicated relationship between the various factions, mainly Saudi Arabia and Turkey, and how this all fits together to forecast the future of the Middle East region.

Rivalry and alliances in the Middle East go back centuries and have shaped the geopolitics of this region in a major way. On this clip of a recent ClubGPF Po...

07/02/2025

Trump’s Diplomatic Model
U.S. President Donald Trump has developed a clear model for exercising diplomacy. He begins by making demands of other nations, then calls for negotiations. If the negotiations do not take place or fail to produce some kind of accommodation, he takes punitive action. All the while, he alternatively issues threats meant to intensify the process or encourages action by praising his antagonist.

This model was on full display during the recent episode with Iran. And a similar process is underway with regard to NATO.

07/01/2025

🌐 In today's Memo: U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order lifting some sanctions against Syria. The White House said it would continue to monitor Damascus’ progress on key issues, including normalization with Israel, addressing foreign terrorists and banning Palestinian terrorist groups.

Sanctions against former Syrian leader Bashar Assad, his associates and participants in the country’s chemical weapons program will remain in effect.

06/30/2025

U.S. President Donald Trump has developed a clear model for exercising diplomacy. He begins by making demands of other nations, then calls for

06/29/2025

China’s Revived Focus on Frugality
After years of pushing for a consumer-driven rebound, the government has finally decided to take more concrete action to help boost growth.

The stimulus measures introduced since late last year have included a consumer goods trade-in program, debt support for local governments, as well as policies to boost the struggling real estate market and fund infrastructure development. Early this year, China’s central bank also announced a shift to a “moderately loose” monetary policy – characterized by lower bank reserve ratios, liquidity injections, and rate cuts – to ease deflation and support fiscal reform.

Multiple reports have appeared recently in Chinese state media urging local government officials to cut back on spending and support the government’s

06/27/2025

Special Collection on the Middle East
The Middle East and North Africa is a troubled region, and it isn’t easy to find a success story to write about or a rewarding political experience to report. This complete work consists of several dozen essays spread out tackling the region’s conflicts and historical evolution, relating them to contemporary issues.

Divided into distinct regions and critical issues, this collection is your source to better understand this volatile region and to be prepared for what comes next. https://geopoliticalfutures.com/special-collection-on-the-middle-east/

06/26/2025

Fresh off a G7 meeting that exposed deep disagreements between the U.S. and Europe over trade and multilateralism, leaders of NATO countries have been in The Hague for a two-day summit. The meeting offers a chance to assess how trans-Atlantic relations are adapting to a U.S. administration whose worldview diverges from that of most of its European allies.

More broadly, it will gauge how united the West still is and whether it can agree on priorities and collective action. With Europe backing the United States’ weekend strikes on Iran and the Trump administration linking Iran and Ukraine, the future of NATO and the West may hinge on how far Russia is willing to support Iran. - Antonia Colibasanu

Fresh off a G7 meeting that exposed deep disagreements between the U.S. and Europe over trade and multilateralism, leaders of NATO countries are gathering

06/26/2025

Graphic Essay: The Evolution of NATO - Geopolitical Futures
For the past 75 years, NATO has been the de facto defender of Europe. Virtually every country on the Continent has its own armed forces, of course, and the alliance includes countries like the United States and Canada that are not, in fact, European. But when it comes to external threats against the whole, NATO has been the first and last name in collective defense.