Gulf Coast One Radio

08/16/2025

08/15/2025

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1110 AM EDT Fri Aug 15 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Updated discussion for the western Gulf disturbance (AL98)

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Hurricane Erin, located several hundred miles east of the
northern Leeward Islands.

Western Gulf (AL98):
Updated: An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been
investigating the disturbance located along the coast of
northeastern Mexico and southern Texas. Aircraft wind data and
coastal Doppler radar data indicate that a closed circulation is
not present and the trough axis associated with the disturbance is
closer to the coast than previously estimated. Therefore, the
possibility of formation is diminishing with only a few hours left
over water. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is
possible along portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas
over the next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

08/15/2025

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 AM AST Fri Aug 15 2025
..ERIN BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2025 SEASON.....EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON
SATURDAY...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 56.1W
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Anguilla and Barbuda
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* Sint Maarten

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands,
and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Erin.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 56.1 West. Erin is moving toward
the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). This motion is expected
to continue into the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of
Erin is likely to move near or just north of the northern Leeward
Islands over the weekend.

Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph
(120 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is
expected during the next two to three days, and Erin is forecast to
become a major hurricane during the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km) mainly to the north of the center .

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the NOAA and Air
Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 996 mb (29.42 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The outer bands of Erin are expected to produce areas of
heavy rainfall tonight into Sunday across the northern Leeward
Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 2
to 4 inches, with isolated totals of 6 inches, are expected. This
rainfall may lead to isolated and locally considerable flash and
urban flooding, along with landslides or mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by early Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will begin affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this
weekend, and will likely spread to the western Atlantic next week.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
forecast office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

08/14/2025

Tropical Erin and SW Gulf Disturbance: Aug. 14th Update
DAN REILLY

AUG 14

Summary
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Tropical Storm Erin is still expected to strengthen to a major hurricane, then recurve before reaching the CONUS. Even so, will still need to monitor for any shifts in track. A westward shift could mean an East Coast direct impact. In any case, high surf and rip currents will be a concern there.

A tropical wave/disturbance over SW Gulf given a 20 percent chance by NHC of becoming a tropical depression over the next few days. Center will make landfall Northern Mexico or South Texas coast as early as tomorrow afternoon.
Will need to watch while system is over the warm Gulf waters for the next 36 hours as changes can occur. Given short time window and weak intensification signal in various models, think tropical wave, tropical depression most likely scenario. Can’t rule out a weak tropical storm.
Enhanced rainfall likely near and right of the ultimate track. Will get a better handle on rainfall amounts later today.
Satellite image this morning below, showing both systems of interest with Tropical Storm Erin and the forecast cone on the right, and a cluster of thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave over the SW Gulf.



As mentioned, the system may bring higher amounts of rainfall as it tracks into Texas Friday night. Rainfall amounts, and location of any higher amounts, are still uncertain. At this point the NWS Weather Prediction Center has a marginal risk of flash flooding as shown in map below. More thunderstorm resolving models will become available for this system today, which will allow a refinement in the rainfall predictions.

As always follow your local NWS office and the the National Hurricane Center and other trusted sources!

08/13/2025

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is currently monitoring a tropical wave in the northwestern Caribbean Sea, characterized by disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

Some development of this system is possible after it emerges across the southwestern Gulf on Thursday.

We will keep you informed as this system evolves over the coming days. As we are in hurricane season, please remain weather-aware and continue to monitor tropical forecasts for the latest updates.

08/11/2025

HERE'S THIS WEEK'S FORECAST FOR MATAGORDA COUNTY FROM THE NWS:

Today: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 92. Heat index values as high as 105. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southeast in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 77. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light south after midnight.

Tuesday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Sunny, with a high near 93. Heat index values as high as 106. Light and variable wind becoming southeast 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 78. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph.

Wednesday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Sunny, with a high near 92. South wind 5 to 10 mph.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 79.

Thursday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 92.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 80.

Friday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 91.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 79.

Saturday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 92.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 79.

Sunday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Sunny, with a high near 93.

08/08/2025

🌀As we ramp up to peak hurricane season, you're going to notice more screenshots of scary weather model runs going viral all over social media. Be aware of the source before you share!

🛠 These weather models are a tool for us meteorologists to use to make better hurricane forecasts, but can be abused for clicks because they're publicly available.

🔗 Monitor official sources (hurricanes.gov) for the latest forecasts for the tropics. If you have questions or concerns about the forecast, we're always here to answer!

👇 Here's an overview of reasonable expectations for hurricane forecasts from formation through landfall.

10/30/2024

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10/28/2024

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10/25/2024

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