Southern Illinois Storm Chasers Page

06/21/2025

Just a quick message from Melanie Matthews PhD. about the extreme heat that is about to be upon us. We seem to be breaking record high temperatures almost on a yearly basis now. In recent past years I tried to discuss things such as wet bulb temperature with people on my personal page, and I think that this is worth mentioning here as well. When we do experience excessive heat warnings, make sure that you are checking on elderly neighbors especially if they live alone. make sure that their air conditioners are functioning properly. Yes, I know that some of these older folks can be a little cantankerous and want you off of their lawn, but they would also appreciate you checking on them, Believe it or not. You don't have to go and stay, but just a quick hey how you doing just making sure that you're ok, and most of them will thank you for it.

Okay enjoy the rest of your weekend, stay safe out there! Summer is definitely here.

06/18/2025

Severe thunderstorm warning.

06/18/2025

Evidently we are in an enhanced risk area for tornado activity today. I didn't know because I haven't been paying attention again. I just heard thunder. And I looked and there it was. Consider me just as surprised as you are if you haven't been paying attention either. That's what it looks like right now.

I guess I know what I'll be doing this afternoon. You guys have a safe day.

06/06/2025

Two severe thunderstorm warnings going on right now, but nothing else.

06/06/2025

There I go laying down on the job again, I was on my way home from the VA and it looked dark to the Southwest So I checked the convective outlook because I have been paying attention to it, has it turns out portions of Southern Illinois are under a slight risk for tornadic activity today and other stuff hail and wind and all that.

No tornadoes have been reported so far but the storms are moving into Southern Illinois right now! I think there's a severe thunderstorm warning in far southwestern Illinois right now. I'll do my best, at 2:30 I have a telephone appointment with pain management, I'll Do what I can to keep you updated but you might want to pay attention to the weather this afternoon.

05/20/2025

05/20/2025

Current as of 12:55 AM extreme Southern Illinois now included in enhanced risk by Day 1 Outlook.

SPC AC 200555

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MID/DEEP SOUTH TO TN VALLEY AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...

...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are expected today through this evening, centered on the Mid/Deep South, Tennessee/Lower Ohio Valleys, and Cumberland Plateau. Tornadoes, some of which could be strong, along with scattered to widespread damaging winds, and large to isolated significant severe hail will be possible.

...Synopsis... Multiple shortwave impulses and attendant mid-level jetlets will rotate through the southern to eastern portion of the broad mid/upper trough over the central states. A belt of 60-75 kt 500-mb southwesterlies should be centered on the Ark-La-Tex to Lower OH Valley by late afternoon. This should weaken thereafter, as the next shortwave impulse strengthens flow across the central Great Plains by evening. Primary surface cyclone should initially drift east from the IA/MO border into IL through the day, before accelerating eastward across IN/OH tonight.

...Mid/Deep South to the TN/Lower OH Valleys and Cumberland Plateau... An extensive swath of convection, currently from the Mid-MS Valley to the Red River, will likely be ongoing across parts of KY to the Ark-La-Miss at 12Z. The northern portion of this convective swath is consistently progged to persist into the diurnal heating cycle, aided by low-level warm theta-e advection along with mid-level height falls, and downstream destabilization. The latter is a primary source of uncertainty given the outpacing of convection thus far relative to 00Z CAM guidance. It does appear that there should be at least modest surface-based buoyancy being maintained downstream to warrant potential for a severe-producing QLCS into the afternoon. All severe threats are possible, but damaging winds may be the predominant coverage hazard. Tornado potential should peak where the QLCS approaches the surface warm front, before an abrupt drop-off in surface-based instability to its northeast.

Greater boundary-layer destabilization is expected to the west-southwest of the early-day activity with relatively rapid airmass recovery amid low 70s surface dew points. Mid-level lapse rates will initially be steep over the Mid-MS Valley, but be more muted with southern extent into the Lower MS Valley. Still, moderate to large buoyancy with MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and minimal MLCIN should be common by mid-late afternoon. During that time frame, scattered supercells will likely develop along and just ahead of the eastward-moving cold front from the Lower OH Valley to the Ark-La-Miss. The modest mid-level lapse rates will be a limiting factor, but isolated significant severe hail (up to around tennis ball-size) will be possible in the initial supercell corridor. A broad swath of 30-40 kt low-level southwesterlies should be sufficient for at least a few strong tornadoes as supercells mature, most likely from western/southern KY across TN into northern portions of MS/AL. Guidance is insistent on upscale growth by early evening though, which would yield small-scale bows and potentially multiple damaging wind swaths. Embedded supercells should still persist well into the evening as storms spread east-southeast in the Southeast and southern Appalachians. But the aforementioned relative decrease in mid-level winds and muted lapse rates lower confidence on significant severe wind and greater tornado probability highlights.

...IL/IN... Within the left-exit region of the aforementioned mid-level jetlet, a dry slot and attendant corridor of steep lapse rates will likely evolve across portions of MO to IL/IN from midday into the afternoon. To the north of this, a cluster of sustained storm development is initially anticipated towards mid-afternoon, centered on central IL ahead of the surface low. Additional storms should develop farther south in time towards the Lower OH Valley. A mix of supercells and multicell clustering is anticipated, with isolated to scattered coverage of severe and all hazards possible.

..Grams/Weinman.. 05/20/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

05/20/2025

Here's what we have in store for tomorrow. As of right now Southern Illinois is in a slight risk for severe weather tomorrow as well.

SPC AC 191730

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...

...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Mid-South, Tennessee Valley, and lower Ohio River Valley on Tuesday, including damaging winds and tornadoes, a few of which could be strong.

...Mid-South and Tennessee/Lower Ohio Valleys... Residual thunderstorms and associated cloud cover are expected to be ongoing across the Mid-South to lower Ohio Valley Tuesday morning, with the early day extensiveness of these storms, and related outflow/differential heating, to be key factors, and points of uncertainty, regarding later-day severe potential. This will especially be the case with northward extent toward the Ohio River and northern parts of the Cumberland Plateau.

On the south/southwest edge of this early day activity, relatively rapid air mass recovery and destabilization can be expected, owing to sustained low-level moisture transport from the southwest in tandem with cloud breaks and an advancing mid-level dry slot. This will be as an upper low shifts northeastward over the middle Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest, with a cyclonically curved mid/upper-level jet streak overspreading the warm sector, which could be convectively contaminated near/north of the Ohio River. At least moderate buoyancy is forecast to develop across the unperturbed and weakly capped warm sector by early afternoon.

It should be noted that multiple sub-regional areas, particularly across central/eastern portions of Kentucky and Tennessee, could receive multiple repeat-rounds of severe storms on Tuesday. Thunderstorm development will likely occur rather early in the afternoon as inhibition will be quickly eroded and dynamic forcing for ascent overspreads the warm sector. Very favorable supercell wind profiles will exist across most of the region via the mid-level jet and a diurnally sustained 30+ kt low-level jet.

Initial supercells will pose a threat for all severe weather hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes, but a mixed convective mode should evolve as upscale growth occurs into multiple clusters. Relatively widespread damaging winds, along with a continued mixed-mode tornado potential, may occur by late afternoon and evening as storms spread east-southeastward toward the Appalachians vicinity.

...Carolinas and far southern Virginia... Weak height falls will begin to influence the region by late in the day with a warm front beginning to shift northward across the region. At least a conditional or isolated potential for severe storms including supercells will exist near the warm front and within the immediately adjacent warm sector.

..Guyer.. 05/19/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

05/20/2025

We do have some inclement weather coming into Southern Illinois this evening. Parts of Southern Illinois are under a slight risk this evening of severe weather.

05/17/2025

Joppa, metropolis, brookport. Your turn, you are now under tornado warning.

05/17/2025

Equality Illinois, shawneetown, Old shawneetown, that's you guys Tornado warning is in effect be ready to go to your safe spot.