Gulf Coast Hurricane Discussion

08/22/2026

☀️🌡️ FIRST ALERT WEATHER — MISSISSIPPI COAST 5-DAY FORECAST

📍 Mississippi Gulf Coast
📅 Saturday, August 22, 2026
👨‍🌾 Meteorologist Zachary Smith

Good Saturday morning! It’s going to be another hot and mostly sunny day along the Mississippi Coast, with heat index values climbing well above 100°. Rain chances stay low through Sunday before scattered thunderstorms become more numerous early next week.

🔥 TODAY — HOT & SUNNY

• ☀️ Sunny and hot
• 🌡️ High: 96°
• 🥵 Heat index: Up to 106°
• 🌬️ Calm early, becoming southwest around 5 mph
• 🌙 Tonight: Mostly clear with a low near 75°

⛅ SUNDAY — MOSTLY DRY

• ☀️ Sunny and hot
• 🌡️ High: 97°
• 🥵 Heat index: Up to 106°
• ⛈️ 20% chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm after 3 PM
• 🌙 Sunday night: Partly cloudy, low near 76°

⛈️ MONDAY — STORMS INCREASE

• 🌤️ Mostly sunny
• 🌡️ High: 93°
• ⛈️ 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1 PM
• 🌙 Monday night: Partly cloudy, low near 75°

⛈️ TUESDAY — SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS

• 🌤️ Mostly sunny between storms
• 🌡️ High: 93°
• ⛈️ 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms
• 🌙 Tuesday night: Mostly clear, low near 76°

🌦️ WEDNESDAY — AFTERNOON STORMS POSSIBLE

• ☀️ Mostly sunny
• 🌡️ High: 93°
• ⛈️ Chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1 PM
• 🌙 Wednesday night: Partly cloudy, low near 75°, with additional thunderstorms possible overnight

⚠️ THE BOTTOM LINE

The weekend will feature plenty of sunshine and dangerous summertime heat, with afternoon heat indices around 106°. Keep the water handy and take frequent breaks if you’re spending time outdoors.

By Monday and Tuesday, moisture and instability increase enough to bring a better chance of scattered thunderstorms. Any stronger storm could produce torrential rainfall, frequent lightning and gusty winds.

☀️ Stay cool, stay hydrated, and enjoy your weekend!

— Meteorologist Zachary Smith
First Alert Weather

08/22/2026

🌀🌴 METEOROLOGIST ZACHARY SMITH’S TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE — SATURDAY, AUGUST 22

☀️ HAPPY SATURDAY!

Good Saturday morning, everyone! There haven’t been many changes overnight with the tropical wave emerging from the coast of Africa.

The National Hurricane Center has increased the chance of development to 30%, but remember — a percentage alone does not guarantee development. We’ve already watched disturbances this season reach much higher probabilities and ultimately fail to organize.

🔹 WHAT WE’RE WATCHING

• 🌀 The tropical wave coming off Africa continues to show some potential for gradual development.

• 📈 The NHC has increased development odds to 30%.

• 💨 Wind shear remains an obstacle across portions of the tropical Atlantic.

• The shear won’t be constant. There may be windows when atmospheric conditions become more favorable for organization, followed by periods when conditions become more hostile.

• Bottom line: this wave still has an uphill battle before it can become an organized tropical system.

🌊 WHAT ABOUT THE LONG-RANGE TRACK?

If the wave eventually develops, the ensemble guidance generally favors a westward track across the tropical Atlantic followed by a turn toward the north.

However, that potential turn depends heavily on how quickly — and how much — the system strengthens.

• 💪 A stronger/deeper system would generally be more likely to feel steering influences that could pull it northward sooner.

• ➡️ A weaker/shallow system could remain embedded in the lower-level easterly flow longer, potentially allowing it to travel farther west.

That is why trying to pinpoint a track this far out simply isn’t useful yet.

🌀 COULD THE ATLANTIC REALLY GO WITHOUT A HURRICANE THIS YEAR?

It’s an interesting question — but time will tell. We still have plenty of hurricane season ahead of us, including the climatological peak of the Atlantic season.

⚠️ THE BOTTOM LINE

• There is absolutely nothing to be worried about right now.

• No immediate threat to the Gulf Coast or United States has been established.

• Development remains uncertain.

• We have TONS of time to watch this wave and see whether it can overcome the hostile conditions ahead.

We’ll continue watching the satellite trends, wind shear, atmospheric moisture, steering pattern and ensemble guidance over the coming days.

😎🏖️🍹 Enjoy your Saturday, relax, and stay tuned!

— Meteorologist Zachary Smith
🌀 First Alert Hurricane
Accuracy Over First — Facts, Not Fear

07/20/2026

🌴 Gulf Coast Weather Discussion

Sunday Morning | Invest AL91 & Gulf Coast Impacts

While Invest AL91 remains poorly organized this morning, confidence continues to increase that the northern Gulf Coast will experience several days of tropical moisture regardless of whether the system becomes a named storm.

🌡️ Dangerous Heat Before the Rain

Today will likely be the hottest day of this stretch.

* 🌡️ Heat indices of 105–110° are expected.
* ⚠️ Heat Advisories are in effect for portions of southeast Mississippi.
* Even areas outside the advisory will experience dangerous heat stress.

The combination of sinking air west of the disturbance and delayed thunderstorm development should allow temperatures to climb quickly before afternoon storms develop.

⸻

🌀 Invest AL91

The National Hurricane Center now gives the disturbance a 60% chance of becoming a tropical depression within the next 48 hours.

Current observations indicate:

* Satellite winds show a better-defined circulation.
* Thunderstorms remain displaced from the center.
* The system is still broad and not yet well organized.
* Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance today should greatly improve forecast confidence.

⸻

📈 What the Models Are Showing

The latest ensemble guidance still clusters the track toward the north-central Gulf Coast, but there remains meaningful spread.

The biggest forecast uncertainty is exactly where the circulation center moves inland.

The track makes all the difference.

If the center stays just offshore:

* 🌧️ Heavy rain focuses mainly over coastal counties.
* 🌊 Rough surf and higher seas increase.
* 🌊 Rip current risk becomes elevated.
* 💨 Gusty squalls remain primarily over marine areas.

If the center tracks inland:

* 🌧️ The axis of tropical rainfall shifts farther inland.
* 🌧️ Rainfall totals increase significantly.
* 🚧 Localized flash flooding becomes more likely.
* 🌬️ Stronger wind gusts extend farther inland.

⸻

🌧️ Tropical Moisture Arrives

Forecast precipitable water values are expected to increase from around 1.9 inches today to roughly 2.25 inches Monday through midweek.

Those values approach the 90th percentile for mid-July, meaning the atmosphere will become exceptionally moisture-rich.

With deep tropical moisture in place:

* Rainfall rates become much more efficient.
* Slow-moving thunderstorms can quickly produce several inches of rain.
* Localized flooding becomes the primary concern.

⸻

📍 Bottom Line

The exact track and strength of Invest AL91 remain uncertain, but confidence is increasing in a period of very humid, tropical weather along portions of the northern Gulf Coast early this week.

The greatest hazards continue to be:

* 🌧️ Heavy rainfall
* 🌊 Coastal and marine impacts
* 🌊 Dangerous rip currents
* 🌡️ Dangerous heat today before widespread rain develops

At this time, flooding—not wind—is expected to be the primary hazard for most locations, although forecast adjustments remain possible once reconnaissance aircraft sample the disturbance and the models ingest that new data.

07/20/2026

07/20/2026

🌴 Gulf Coast Tropical Update

Sunday Afternoon | 1:00 PM CDT

The National Hurricane Center has upgraded Invest AL91 to Tropical Depression Two, making it the second tropical cyclone of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.

The system remains weak and slow-moving, but gradual strengthening is expected, and it is forecast to become a tropical storm later tonight or on Monday.

🌀 Latest Status

* Location: About 170 miles south-southeast of Panama City, Florida
* Maximum Sustained Winds: 30 mph
* Movement: North-northwest at 1 mph
* Minimum Central Pressure: 1011 mb

📍 Forecast

Tropical Depression Two is expected to continue a slow northwest to north-northwest drift through the next day or two before gradually turning westward along or near the northern Gulf Coast.

While strengthening is anticipated, the system’s broad structure should keep intensification gradual. Regardless of its exact strength, heavy rainfall will remain the primary hazard across portions of the northern Gulf Coast.

⚠️ Watches

A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for:

* Ochlockonee River to the Florida/Alabama border

Additional watches and warnings may be required during the next 24 to 48 hours as confidence in the forecast track and expected impacts increases.

🌧️ Primary Hazards

* Heavy Rainfall: Several inches of rain with localized flash flooding are possible, especially near and east of the eventual track.
* Tropical Storm Winds: Tropical storm-force winds are possible within the watch area beginning late Monday.
* Storm Surge: Water levels of 1 to 3 feet above normally dry ground are possible from Indian Pass to Chassahowitzka, Florida, particularly around the time of high tide.

📈 Meteorological Discussion

Although Tropical Depression Two now has a well-defined closed surface circulation, the strongest thunderstorms remain displaced east of the center, indicating the cyclone is still somewhat disorganized.

Its extremely slow motion allows additional time over the warm Gulf waters, supporting gradual strengthening. However, the system’s broad circulation and asymmetric convective structure should help limit any rapid intensification in the short term.

For the central Gulf Coast, including southeast Louisiana, coastal Mississippi, and southwest Alabama, the primary concern continues to be periods of heavy tropical rainfall rather than damaging winds. Forecast confidence continues to increase that deep tropical moisture will spread westward over the next several days, even if the center remains east of the region.

✅ Bottom Line

Tropical Depression Two is expected to become a tropical storm within the next 12 to 24 hours. While some wind impacts are possible near and east of where the center eventually comes ashore, the greatest threat for much of the northern Gulf Coast remains heavy rainfall, localized flash flooding, and prolonged periods of tropical downpours.

As always, we’ll continue monitoring every advisory and provide timely, fact-based updates—because accuracy comes first.

07/20/2026

🌴 Gulf Coast Tropical Update

Sunday Afternoon | 4:00 PM CDT

Tropical Depression Two remains nearly stationary over the northeastern Gulf this afternoon, with little change in intensity. While the system is still weak, gradual strengthening is expected, and it is forecast to become a tropical storm on Monday.

🌀 Latest Status

* 📍 Location: About 190 miles south-southeast of Panama City, Florida
* 💨 Maximum Sustained Winds: 30 mph
* 🧭 Movement: Stationary
* 📉 Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb

📍 Forecast

The depression is expected to begin a very slow northwest to north-northwest drift over the next day or two before turning westward along or near the northern Gulf Coast.

Forecast confidence remains highest that heavy rainfall will be the primary hazard, regardless of whether the system reaches tropical storm strength. The broad circulation and slow movement will continue to transport deep tropical moisture into portions of the northern Gulf Coast through much of the upcoming week.

⚠️ Current Watch

A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect from:

* Ochlockonee River to the Florida/Alabama border

Additional tropical storm watches or warnings could be issued over the next 24 to 48 hours as confidence in the track and impacts increases.

🌧️ Primary Hazards

* Periods of heavy rainfall with localized flooding
* Gusty winds near and east of the center
* Tropical storm conditions possible across the Florida Panhandle by late Monday
* Minor coastal flooding and storm surge of 1–3 feet is possible from Indian Pass to Chassahowitzka, Florida, especially around times of high tide
* Rough surf and hazardous marine conditions will continue across portions of the northeastern Gulf

📌 Bottom Line

This remains a slow-moving tropical system, so impacts will unfold over several days rather than all at once. While gradual strengthening is anticipated, the greatest concern continues to be prolonged heavy rainfall and localized flooding, with wind impacts mainly focused closer to the Florida Panhandle and northeastern Gulf Coast.

We’ll continue to monitor Tropical Depression Two closely and provide updates as new information becomes available.

07/20/2026

🌐 firstalerthurricane.com

🚨 HURRICANE OFF TEXAS BY THURSDAY?! 🚨

The latest 18z ICON model from Sunday afternoon depicts a hurricane just offshore of the Texas coast by Thursday evening.

Will this happen? It’s far too early to say.

This is just one model scenario, not a forecast. However, it is a possibility that forecasters will continue to monitor, especially as recent model guidance has gradually shifted the projected track farther south and west.

At this time, Tropical Depression Two is still broad and organizing over the eastern Gulf. Because the system does not yet have a well-defined center, forecast models are expected to continue showing significant run-to-run differences over the next couple of days.

Gradual strengthening is expected, and the system is forecast to become Tropical Storm Bertha. Once a better-defined center develops and additional reconnaissance data are ingested into the models, forecast confidence should improve.

For now, residents along the Gulf Coast should stay informed, review their hurricane preparedness plans, and avoid focusing on any single model run. We’ll continue to provide updates as confidence increases.

07/20/2026

🌴 Gulf Coast Tropical Update

The latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center indicates Tropical Depression Two has changed little in organization today, but gradual strengthening remains expected over the next several days.

🌀 Current Status

* The depression remains well-organized, with thunderstorms gradually increasing near the center and within its outer rainbands.
* Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft and satellite data continue to support maximum sustained winds of 30 mph (25 kt).
* The circulation remains large and broad, with showers and thunderstorms covering much of the eastern Gulf.

📍 Track Forecast

* The system has moved very little today, even drifting slightly southeast at times due to weak steering currents.
* A slow northwest drift is expected through Monday and Tuesday.
* The depression is then forecast to turn west to west-northwest as high pressure strengthens across the southern United States.
* The center is expected to track along or just offshore the northern Gulf Coast during the middle and latter part of the week.
* The latest National Hurricane Center forecast has shifted slightly farther south, matching several of the best-performing forecast models.

💨 Intensity Forecast

* Strengthening should remain gradual because of:
* A broad, sprawling circulation
* Dry air surrounding the system
* Northeasterly wind shear
* The depression is still forecast to become Tropical Storm Bertha on Monday while offshore of the Florida Panhandle.
* If wind shear relaxes and the center remains over water during midweek, additional strengthening could occur.

⚠️ Forecast Confidence

* Confidence in the track is improving, but confidence in the intensity forecast remains lower than average.
* Forecast models range from the system:
* Remaining a tropical depression,
* Becoming a tropical storm,
* Or strengthening into a hurricane.
* How much time the center spends over water versus interacting with land will largely determine its ultimate strength.

🌧️ Key Messages

* Heavy rainfall remains the primary threat regardless of the system’s eventual intensity.
* Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the Florida Panhandle beginning late Monday.
* Residents along the northern Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the latest forecasts, as additional watches and warnings may be needed.
* Forecast details—including both the track and intensity—will become clearer once the system develops a more defined inner core.

07/20/2026

🌴 FirstAlertHurricane.com Tropical Depression Two Update

Meteorologist Louis Smith

Sunday Afternoon | July 19, 2026

🌀 Tropical Depression Two: Confidence Increasing, But Significant Strengthening Appears Unlikely

As we head into the start of the workweek, there are two primary weather concerns across the Gulf Coast:

* 🌡️ Dangerous heat and humidity through at least Monday
* 🌀 Tropical Depression Two slowly organizing over the northeastern Gulf

⸻

🌡️ Heat Continues

A weak ridge of high pressure remains in place across the region, allowing temperatures to climb into the upper 90s to near 100° each afternoon.

* 🔥 Heat indices will continue reaching dangerous levels.
* ⚠️ Heat Advisories remain in effect through at least Monday and could be extended.
* 🌬️ A light northerly flow is limiting cooling from the Gulf and helping temperatures climb.
* ☀️ Modest sinking air (subsidence) surrounding Tropical Depression Two will also contribute to hotter-than-normal afternoon temperatures.

⸻

🌀 Tropical Depression Two

The National Hurricane Center upgraded the system to Tropical Depression Two after satellite and ASCAT data confirmed a developing surface circulation beneath a well-defined mid-level center.

Current Thoughts

* 📍 The depression remains in a weak steering environment, resulting in very slow movement.
* 🧭 A strengthening ridge over the southern United States should gradually steer the system westward during the middle of the week.
* 📈 Slow strengthening is expected, with the system forecast to become Tropical Storm Bertha before approaching the northern Gulf.

⸻

📊 Forecast Confidence Improving

Forecast guidance has become much more consistent over the past 24 hours.

* ✅ Global forecast models
* ✅ Ensemble guidance
* ✅ AI forecast guidance

…have generally come into better agreement regarding the westward track toward the northern Gulf Coast.

While confidence in the overall track has increased, details on exact impacts remain subject to change.

⸻

🌬️ Why Rapid Intensification Is Unlikely

Several atmospheric factors should prevent the system from strengthening quickly.

* ❌ Increasing northeasterly wind shear approaching 30+ knots
* ❌ Dry air in the middle and upper atmosphere
* ❌ Only marginally favorable upper-level conditions

These factors should keep the cyclone somewhat asymmetric and limit significant intensification.

⸻

⚠️ Expected Gulf Coast Impacts

At this time, the greatest concerns appear to be:

* 🌧️ Heavy rainfall with localized flooding
* 🌊 Rough surf and hazardous marine conditions
* 🌴 Minor coastal impacts, especially along the Louisiana coastline

Because stronger winds are likely to remain displaced from the center by wind shear, the heaviest rain and strongest winds may stay along and south of Interstate 10, and possibly closer to the immediate Louisiana coast.

⸻

🎯 Bottom Line

While Tropical Depression Two is expected to strengthen into Tropical Storm Bertha, current indications suggest this will primarily be a heavy rain and coastal impacts event rather than a significant wind event.

Forecast confidence is increasing, but there is still time for changes in both the track and intensity. Continue to monitor updates over the next couple of days as additional reconnaissance data and model guidance become available.

Stay with FirstAlertHurricane.com for the latest tropical updates.

07/17/2026

🌤️ Short-Term Weather Outlook & Tropical Discussion

A persistent broad trough over the southeastern United States and adjacent marine areas will continue to dominate the weather pattern through the short term.

🌀 Tropical Outlook

* A broad area of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop over the northeastern Gulf during the next several days.
* Some tropical development remains possible, but the overall environment is not favorable for rapid organization through the weekend.
* A Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) low moving across the Florida Keys is producing strong upper-level wind shear, which should limit development initially.
* By Sunday, the TUTT low is forecast to lift north toward the Jacksonville area, allowing wind shear to gradually decrease as we move into next week.
* Steering flow between a stacked ridge to the west and the Bermuda High to the east should guide the system and its deepest tropical moisture north-northeast, keeping any organized system away from the immediate central Gulf Coast.

🌦️ Local Rain Chances

* Rain chances remain low through Monday.
* The earliest opportunity for isolated showers or thunderstorms arrives late Saturday into Saturday evening as deeper moisture slowly pushes westward.
* Expect only 10%–30% rain chances, with the greatest potential generally east of Interstate 55.
* Moisture is expected to stall near the I-55 corridor, preventing widespread rainfall across much of the region through early next week.

🌡️ Heat Remains the Primary Concern

* Dangerous heat will continue to be the dominant weather story.
* Heat index values will approach Heat Advisory criteria, with temperatures and humidity increasing from Saturday into next week.
* While no Heat Advisory has been issued at this time, forecast trends will be monitored closely as new guidance becomes available.
* Anyone spending extended time outdoors should:
* 💧 Stay well hydrated.
* 🧢 Wear lightweight, light-colored clothing.
* 🌳 Take frequent breaks in the shade or air conditioning.
* 👶🐶 Never leave children or pets in a parked vehicle.

📌 Bottom Line

* 🌀 Low-end tropical development remains possible over the northeastern Gulf, but strong wind shear should limit organization through the weekend.
* 🌧️ Local rain chances stay low, with only isolated afternoon storms possible, mainly east of I-55.
* 🔥 Heat and humidity will remain the biggest weather concern through early next week, with heat indices nearing advisory levels.