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Dependable Weather for all of Northern Indiana and NW Ohio. Ran by veteran forecaster John Tinney.

01/12/2024

EXTENDED FORECAST: Good Thursday night everyone. Here's a look at the next 7 days along with our snowfall forecast map, current alerts, windy meter, and power outage meter.

No change in our forecast thinking tonight. Heaviest snow along the Indiana/Michigan border. Accumulating snow along and north of US 24 with some rain mixed in. A rain/snow mix with a change to rain, then a couple of inches of snow on the backside of the storm system for areas south of Fort Wayne.

VERY GUSTY WINDS AND ARCTIC AIR: Winds will be very gusty tomorrow into Saturday with winds gusting 40-50 mph with occasional higher gusts possible. This will lead to a decent possibility of trees and power lines coming down thus some power outages. A flash freeze will also be possible as very cold air rushes in behind this system causing any remaining moisture to freeze. This could create some travel issues area wide.

KEEP WARM: With artic air coming in and dangerous wind chills combined with the potential for power outages I strongly suggest you gas up your generators, get your devices charged up, and make sure to have extra blankets handy just in case you lose power. We will continue to monitor the situation closely and will provide regular updates as needed.

01/11/2024

HIGH WINDS: Checkout some of the projected wind gusts coming in on the Futurecast data. Even if those numbers are slightly over done we are talking about some very gusty winds with an increasing potential for power outages. Folks you need to prepare to be without power for a but just in case. Charge all your devices, get gas for generators, have extra blankets handy due to the very cold air coming in.

The worst of the winds will be from Friday afternoon/evening trough Saturday evening. After 4 PM EST Saturday we'll see winds gradually begin to calm down BUT it will be a gradual process. Make preparations now just in case you lose power or sustain damage from falling trees or power lines.

01/11/2024

BREAKING WEATHER: Winter Storm Warnings, Winter Weather Advisories, High Wind Watches, and Wind Advisories all issued for various parts of our coverage area.

WINTER STORM WARNINGS: A Winter Storm Warning has ben issued for La Porte and St. Joseph counties from 10 AM EST Friday until 7 PM EST Saturday. Heavy snow and winds up to 50 mph possible.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY: A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for areas along and north of US 24 from 10 AM EST Friday until 7 PM EST Saturday. Some accumulating snow possible along with winds up to 50 mph.

HIGH WIND WATCH: A High Wind Watch has been issued for Howard and Carroll counties until 7 PM EST Saturday. Winds as high as 60 mph are possible.

WIND ADVISORY: A Wind Advisory has been issued for areas south of Fort Wayne and east of Defiance Ohio until 7 PM EST Saturday. Winds as high as 50 mph are possible.

We continue to monitor the latest data and will have updates as needed.

01/11/2024

COLD WEATHER AND WIND SAFETY TIPS

01/11/2024

WINTER WEATHER UPDATE: Good morning everyone. Here's our latest thinking regarding the incoming winter storm. I've updated our snowfall map to be a little more specific. Areas along and south of US 24 should be mostly rain with some snow mixing in and then an inch or two of snow on the backside of the storm. The best chance for significant snow continues to be for areas north and west of Fort Wayne and especially along the Michigan border. Travel will be tricky to very dangerous especially in areas that see accumulating snow and then area wide as very cold air moves in and any moisture freezes.

VERY WINDY: Very gusty winds will be an issue Friday into Saturday. Winds 40-50 mph are very possible especially along Lake Michigan and areas near and south of Fort Wayne. Power outages will be possible and with very cold arctic air moving in this could create a whole other set of problems. I would make sure to charge all your devices ahead of this storm just in case you lose power. I'd expect to see some sort of wind alerts issued in the near future.

DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS: Behind this system will come some very cold air and dangerous wind chills. Highs in the single digits, lows near or below zero and wind chill values double digits below zero are all very possible.

RIVER FLOODING AND ICE JAMS: Some river flooding and minor ice jams will be possible especially for areas that see a good bit of rain and then see thing freeze behind this system. That's a threat we will monitor closely.

We'll continue to monitor the latest data as it comes in and will update things as needed. Be sure to check back for those updates.

01/11/2024

WEDNESDAY NIGHT WEATHER UPDATE: Not much change in the forecast as I type this at 8:50 PM EST. Winter Storm Watches are up for our far northern Indiana counties.

We still expect the worst of the weather and heaviest snow north of US HW 24 Friday through Saturday. Areas south of US HWY 24 likely see a cold rain with some snow mixed in. As the system moves out there will be some wrap around snow that will give most everyone an inch or two.

GUSTY WINDS AND VERY COLD AIR: As this storm system begins to move out of our area winds are REALLY going to pick up. Winds 35-45 mph with higher gusts are certainly possible. Temperatures are going to crash. Overnight lows near or below zero as we head into Saturday night and into next week. High temperatures Sunday through Tuesday will be in the single digits above zero with wind chill values double digits below zero. Folks that is dangerous cold and you will need to make sure you have adequate warmth.

Higher resolution data is coming in and adjustments to the overall forecast are possible. Any changes in track or timing will have pretty decent impacts in who sees what an how much. As always be sure to check back for updates.

01/10/2024

WINTER STORM WATCHES ISSUED: The National Weather Service in Northern Indiana has issued a Winter Storm Watch for our Indiana counties that border Michigan. Like we posted this morning this is where we feel the heaviest snow will fall. I've posted a very general snowfall map below.

With the line between heavy snow and mostly rain and little snow being right in the heart of our coverage area I'm not confident enough to post exact ranges of snow just yet but rather this generalized map as some adjustments will be needed. As always make sure you're working with the most current information and be sure to check back for updates.

Posted 1/10/2024 at 3:04 PM EST.

01/10/2024

ENSEMBLE FORECASTING: As forecasters when dealing with forecasting and especially event with considerable uncertainty we use what is known as ensemble data.

Exactly what is ensemble data??? Well instead of running just a single forecast, the computer model is run a number of times from slightly different starting conditions. The complete set of forecasts is referred to as the ensemble, and individual forecasts within it as ensemble members.

The images below are the Euro and GFS ensemble forecasts for our weather system this weekend. Notice both have most of the outcomes on a more northern track projection. This is why our update this morning stated we support a more northerly solution thus more snow north of US 24 and more rain and less snow south of that line. Can things change??? Absolutely!!! We are constantly looking at all the data that comes in but hopefully this gives you a little better insight in how we forecast especially when there is considerable run to run inconsistencies in the model data.

01/10/2024

Hey folks when it comes to weather especially active weather PLEASE make sure you’re seeing our most recent update. Actually come to our page and scroll down. During active weather old information is often bad information.

01/10/2024

WEEKEND STORM UPDATE: Good morning everyone. Here's an update on our current thinking regarding this weekends storm system. There has been a shift west in the model data overnight. This puts the heaviest snow across far northern Indiana near the Michigan border. I've posted the Euro and the GFS below and for a big time snow you want to see that area of low pressure track well south of I-70 and preferably closer to the Ohio river

BLEND OF MODELS: If we take a combined look at the model data aka Blend of Models which I've posted below you can see exactly what I mentioned above. Right now this is the best way to look at this thing from a snow perspective. I think areas north of US 24 have the best chance for multiple inches of accumulating snow as we sit here at 10:30 AM on Wednesday morning. South of US 24 I think sees more rain and perhaps mixed precipitation and then light snow on the backside. It will also be very wind with winds 30-40 mph with higher gusts possible.

ARCTIC AIR: The one certainty with all of this is some VERY cold air will move in behind this system. We're talking highs in the single digits and lows near or below zero not to mention wind chill values double digits below zero. The cold air will be a significant issue all by it's self.

BOTTOM LINE: We continue to monitor the data as it comes it and the forecast can certainly still change. Any changes in the track and timing will have pretty significant impacts for our area in who sees exactly what and how much. This is simply where we stand at 10:30 AM EST Wednesday morning. I'll continue to update things as new data comes in.

01/09/2024

EXTENDED FORECAST: ANOTHER STORM AND SOME VERY COLD AIR: Good evening everyone. Here's a look at your latest 7 Day Forecast. Checkout those temperatures to begin next week. Brrrrrr!!!! We've declared Friday- Sunday a ONE TO WATCH due to the potential for an impactful winter storm and we've declared Sunday - Tuesday WEATHER AWARE DAYS due to dangerously cold temperatures and wind chill values.

WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM: If you've ever wondered why we say storm track makes such a difference please take a look at the two main models we use. The Euro and the GFS. Notice the difference in location of the area of low pressure. It makes a huge difference in who sees what and how much.

As we sit here tonight looking at the weekend rain, accumulating snow, mixed precipitation and very strong winds are a good possibility. If we take all the models combined and come up with a median solution South Bend gets roughly 11" of snow and Fort Wayne gets 6" of snow, while Indianapolis gets 3.7" of snow. Pretty subtle differences. Now that's probably not how this play out as models should come into agreement in the next 24 hours but it gives you an idea of how we as forecasters look at things.

BOTTOM LINE: For this weekend you need to prepare for rain, accumulating snow, very gusty winds, and very cold weather to follow. We will hopefully have a much better idea as to who sees what and how much by tomorrow evening. Please be sure to check back for updates.

01/09/2024

BRUTAL COLD: Just for fun checkout the temperature and wind chill values at 1 PM EST Monday off the GFS. Talk about bone chilling cold. Folks that’s a mid day temperature of 2 degrees above zero and a wind chill value of -15 degrees below zero in Fort Wayne. 🥶🥶🥶🥶. No doubt some very cold air headed our way.

01/09/2024

ONE TO WATCH: Now that we have the worst of this storm system out of the way let's talk about this weekend. We are monitoring the potential for another strong storm system that will likely impact our area Friday through Sunday.

A strong storm system will bring a better threat for one or more rounds of accumulating snow and wind beginning Friday lasting into Sunday potentially. The biggest question is the track of this storm system. A track further south means more snow while a track further north would be less snow and the potential for some rain or mixed precipitation.

ARCTIC AIR: This is the one aspect of this system that we are VERY confident in. Very cold arctic air will overtake our area late Saturday. We are looking at highs in the single digits above zero early next week with lows near or below zero and dangerous wind chills double digits below zero. I hope you've enjoyed the mild winter thus far.

We will continue to monitor the latest data as it comes in. As always be sure to check back for updates on this very active stretch of weather.

01/09/2024

RADAR UPDATE: Just a cold rain for most folks as of 9:39 AM EST. Rain will last throughout the day before changing back to some light snow tonight. Not expecting much in the way of accumulation. Winds will also be on the increase gusting 25-35 mph with occasional gusts to 40 mph.

01/09/2024

A look at some of the views from our wonderful INDOT Northeast plow drivers. As well as a couple of traffic cameras.

01/09/2024

EXPIRED: No longer valid.

UPDATED WEATHER ALERTS: The Winter Weather Advisory has been scaled backed to include areas along and north of US HWY 24 as we expect a changeover to rain to begin in the next little bit. Thus reducing travel impacts south of Fort Wayne.

WIND ADVISORY: Our counties covered by the National Weather Service in Wilmington Ohio have been placed under a Wind Advisory from 7 PM tonight through noon on Tuesday. I would not be surprised to see more counties added before all is said and done.

01/09/2024

Snow coming down in Bluffton Indiana as of 4:35 AM EST.

01/09/2024

RADAR UPDATE: Here's a look at the current radar as of 1:52 AM EST. Temperatures have remained near or right above freezing at the surface. Precip types have struggled to change. We will continue to monitor things closely.

01/09/2024

EXPIRED: No longer in effect. 🚫🚫🚫🚫🚫

EVENING WEATHER UPDATE: No real change in our thinking as we approach the onset of this winter weather system. We will keep our snow forecast as is. Moderate to heavy snow moves in around midnight or just after. There could be some mixing initially. By Tuesday morning near or after 8 AM I suspect most everyone will be all rain and this will wash most of the snow away. Your Tuesday morning commute could be tricky though so allow extra time in the morning.

ON OUR RADAR: Another strong storm system looks to impact our area this weekend. Followed by some very cold air. I mean we are talking highs possibly nearing single digits next week with lows near below zero with wind chill values double digits below zero. I really hope you've enjoyed this mild winter lol. We'll continue to watch things closely and will be providing regular updates tonight into tomorrow morning.

01/08/2024

SIMULATED RADAR: Here's the latest radar simulation from one of the high resolution models through 6 AM EST. Current forecast thinking seems to be on track. Just a reminder a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the vast majority of our coverage area through 7 AM EST Tuesday morning.

01/08/2024

Winter Storm Severity Index: Here's a look at the Winter Storm Severity Index valid through Tuesday morning at 7 AM EST. This index accounts for the overall impact to daily life a storm might have. As you can see a pretty good chunk of our coverage area is under the Moderate category. If you look at the right hand side of the graphic there is a detailed description as to what the categories mean. We continue to monitor the latest data as this system approaches.

01/08/2024

BREAKING WEATHER: A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the vast majority of our coverage area from 1 AM - 7 AM EST Tuesday morning. The only exceptions are Carroll and Howard counties in the NWS Indianapolis market and their advisory begins at 10 PM EST Monday night. As of 4:20 AM EST our counties served by NWS Wilmington, OH have not been placed under an advisory.

Updated snowfall map and threat graphic posted below as well. Only minor adjustments to the snowfall forecast.

01/08/2024

COLDER TEMPERATURES LOOKING MORE LIKELY: We are seeing pretty good agreement that the coldest air of the winter will arrive in next 8-10 days. Image #1 is the analog data that is in remarkably good agreement with the Climate Prediction Center 6-10 and 8-14 day temperature outlook. We could be looking at highs in the teens and lows in the single digits if this pans out. I hope you’ve enjoyed our mild winter to this point. 🥶🥶🥶🥶

01/08/2024

TUESDAY STORM UPDATE: Good Sunday night everyone. Here's a look at our current thinking regarding the storm system that will impact our area late Monday night through Wednesday. I've posted our initial snowfall map which is subject to changes by the way.

SNOW TO RAIN: Snow some of which could be moderate to heavy at times moves in late Monday night lasting through early Tuesday morning before quickly changing to rain as warm air quickly takes over. During this changeover we could see a period of mixing precip types. The rain will likely wash away any snow that does accumulate.

LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY: As colder air moves back in on the backside of this system we will see a change back to some light snow late Tuesday into Wednesday. It will also be quite windy with winds gusting 25-35 mph with gusts of 40+mph possible.

NOTES: Recent data has shown a northwestward shift in storm track. As we've stated before. Any changes in storm track and timing has significant implications on the overall forecast. We will continue to monitor the latest data and update things as needed.

LOOKING AHEAD: We are also watching this upcoming weekend for another impactful storm system. Details remain unclear but the pattern does appear to remain active. We are also seeing pretty good indications of some pretty cold air after the upcoming weekend storm system. Certainly not a boring time in the weather department.

01/07/2024

RADAR UPDATE: We've still got some light snow moving through as of 6:54 AM EST. Allow yourself a little extra time as you head to church or work this morning as there could be a few slick spots. New update on Tuesday's storm system later today. Have a great Sunday, and God bless. 🙂🙂🙂

01/06/2024

SATURDAY NIGHT WEATHER UPDATE: Good Saturday night everyone. I hope all of you are doing well. Here's a look at tonight's forecast. Expect a few passing snow showers tonight into early Sunday morning. There could be a few slick spots as you head out Sunday morning so allow yourself some extra time. I've also posted a look at a few of the snow reports from around the area today.

TUESDAY'S STORM SYSTEM: Our thinking honestly hasn't changed that much in regards to how we think things will play out Tuesday into Wednesday. I still think we start as moderate to heavy snow possibly as early as Monday night. Things will change to rain during the day on Tuesday before changing back over to snow Tuesday night into Wednesday. During the changeover process we could see some mixing in the precip types. It will also be quite windy with winds gusting 30-40 mph.

There are still some uncertainties in terms of the exact storm track and any changes in timing or the storm track will impact the forecast. We are getting in range of the higher resolution models so we should begin to get a better idea as to who sees exactly what and how much. Snow totals will be tricky given the first round likely get washed away by the rain. Be sure to check back for updates.

01/06/2024

Snow covered roads on my trip from Bluffton to Portland, Indiana, this morning. Slow down and allow extra time. I encountered a few slick spots.

01/06/2024

SLICK TRAVEL ON THIS SATURDAY MORNING: Roads are snow-covered in spots, and there are some slick spots out there. Allow extra time and extra braking distance this morning.

01/06/2024

FUTURE RADAR: Here's a look at the projected radar through 1 AM EST Sunday morning. Not expecting much in the way of accumulation. Only an inch or two at best.

01/05/2024

TUESDAY STORM UPDATE: While we see some light snow late tonight into tomorrow and early Sunday morning it is Tuesday's storm system that really has our attention. Below is how the European model continues to handle the system. It's pretty much in line with what we've been saying for the past couple of days.

START: The system will likely start out as a decent burst of snow. Image #1 is valid at 4 AM EST Tuesday morning. You can see some pretty decent snow if this were to be anywhere near correct.

MIDDLE: As we get into the afternoon and evening hours on Tuesday. Warmer air will run over top of the colder air and we will see things transition to all rain. Thus any snow that were to fall would turn into a mushy mess and probably melt quite a bit.

END: As things come to an end on Wednesday morning we will see a transition back to all snow as colder air filters in on the backside of this system. It will also be quite breezy with winds gusting 25-35 mph with locally higher gusts possible.

SUBJECT TO CHANGE: As I've stated before. We are still several days out and the forecast is certainly subject to change. Any change in storm track and speed will have impacts on how things ultimately play out. Be sure to check back for updates.

Posted 1/5/24 at 3:54 PM EST

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Snow coming down in Bluffton Indiana as of 4:35 AM EST.

Another round of light snow moving in. Expect an inch or less in additional accumulation.

SLICK TRAVEL ON THIS SATURDAY MORNING: Roads are snow-covered in spots, and there are some slick spots out there. Allow extra time and extra braking distance this morning.

FUTURE RADAR: Here's a look at the projected radar through 1 AM EST Sunday morning. Not expecting much in the way of accumulation. Only an inch or two at best.

Snow squall moving through Bluffton Indiana this morning.

It's happening folks!!!!

Wooooo this is no joke 😬😬😬😬

SEVERE WEATHER UPDATE

NO LONGER LIVE: ACTIVE TORNADO WARNING IN OUR COVERAGE AREA: Join us for a LIVE update.

MORE WILDFIRE SMOKE: Ahhhh yes as if you really missed it we have more Canadian wildfire smoke returning to our area for your Sunday. In fact the National Weather Service has all of our Indiana counties under an Air Quality Alert for Sunday. Below is the model data evolution of that smoke progressing through our area.