08/30/2026
You may have heard rumblings of a strong "El Nino" pattern upcoming. In simple terms, this means that the Pacific Ocean's surface temperatures near the equator are warmer than usual. The water temperatures matter as they can and do dictate our weather patterns here in the USA.
The chart below shows a potential forecast solution based off the CFS climate model which has been gaining more and more confidence. By the end of this summer into fall, we will likely be dealing with a very strong El Nino.
So what does this mean for us here in Indiana for the upcoming winter season? The easy cop out answer is, we don't know yet. But we can give you some historical based facts. Years of El Nino patterns, particularly winter, trend to be warmer and drier. So perhaps this upcoming winter may trend that direction as well.
There are many other factors at play when forecasting long term stuff like this, so we will need to wait to see them all to gain a better understanding of what the winter ahead of us holds.
Bottom line is this, we're not gonna die from a super mega El Nino, but it could make for some unseasonal weather over the next several months.