Boothbay Peninsula Weather

10/13/2025

Well, that revised forecast this morning looked promising. The radar with the areas of rain moving in a generally northwestward direction, and our rainfall so far, do not look very promising at all. Oh well!

10/13/2025

Woohoo! It still isn't a lot, but anything is a help. Rainfall forecast is up a tad this morning!

10/12/2025

10/12/2025

THE WEEK AHEAD (10/12/25):

The weather is getting a bit more active this week than it has been and I will need to pay attention to what may come during the latter half of the week. Currently, on the water there is a Small Craft Advisory in effect until a gale warning comes into effect at 8PM tonight through early Tuesday. On shore we have a Rip Current Risk in effect until 8PM tonight with a High Surf Advisory in effect from 8AM tomorrow to 8PM Tuesday.

REMINDER: The seasonal water shutdown for the Boothbay Region is scheduled for October 16. We drained the cottage water system and added RV antifreeze to the traps today, among other winter preparations there. No more weather reporting from Pig Cove until next spring.

It is feeling more like fall now and daytime highs in the 50s are expected to be the rule with a possible 60ish high Tuesday and/or Wednesday. Overnight lows are expected to be mainly in the 40s with little chance of another frosty night.

Our hope for any meaningful rain is pretty well gone now. It looks like we will be lucky if we get even 1/10 inch total during the coming week. Yes, we may get some showers tomorrow and/or Tuesday especially, but not the soaking rain that we need.

Winds tomorrow and Wednesday are expected to be around 15 mph with gusts around 30 mph possible. Thursday is expected to be quite windy with winds 15-20 mph and gusts possibly reaching 40 mph. Winds next weekend should be back down to the 5-10 mph range with gusts to 15 mph or less.

MARINE FORECAST: There is a Small Craft Advisory currently in effect for our area due to expire at 8PM tonight. A Gale Warning is in effect from 8PM tonight until 2AM Tuesday with northeast winds of 20-30 kt, gusts up to 40 kt and seas 8 to 13 ft expected. Conditions should ease a little on Wednesday, but seas are expected to still be in the 2-3 foot range and winds are likely to remain fairly strong at 15-20 kt.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC: Jerry and Karen are both history now, never having achieved hurricane status. There is a disturbance west southwest of the Cape Verde Islands with a moderate chance of developing into something.

SPACE WEATHER: There will be some aurora tonight but it won’t be visible this far south unfortunately.

10/12/2025

I will have the usual look ahead for the coming week later today, but thought I should update on what the next couple of days look like.

Hopes for some significant rain have dwindled as we approach what might have been a mild nor'easter. It now looks like we can expect less than 1/10 inch of rain through the first half of the week, very disappointing! Today and tomorrow will be on the breezy side, 15 mph winds and gusts likely around 30 mph, but little rain.

I have a busy day today so I probably will be later than usual for the full week ahead post.

10/10/2025

Depressing! We need rain, and a lot more than it looks like we will be getting over the next couple of weeks! That nor'easter would help if it got up this way. Florida doesn't need more right now, but it has been getting it with flood watches in effect!

10/10/2025

There are now 2 "Tropical" Storms being tracked by the hurricane center. Karen showed up sometime after I checked yesterday. Karen is much farther north than one usually sees tropical storms develop and certainly isn't going to bother us as it is at the same latitude as Maine, far to our east and moving in a northeasterly direction.

Jerry is moving northward and is expected to make a sharp turn to the east as it reaches the same latitude as Bermuda. Development to hurricane strength doesn't look likely.

On the local front, that nor'easter still doesn't look like it will get here although we will see some rain and moderately gusty winds from it. A more important storm is likely to arrive later next week. Despite the NOAA GFS based forecast, it doesn't look like any significant rain will arrive before Monday evening. Total accumulation from this event could end up less than 1/4 inch, although NOAA GFS is indicating over 1 inch. We'll see what the forecast models indicate on Sunday!

10/10/2025

Two quick items:

1) The seasonal weather station on Pig Cove went offline for the year yesterday as our Spectrum internet service switched off.

2) It is a little chillier this morning in Boothbay than forecast and I expected. It looks like our overnight low will be 32° which is a couple of degrees cooler than expected.

10/09/2025

How Boothbay Harbor made the list of affected towns is beyond me! I fully expect that inland areas may see a killing frost overnight tonight, but certainly not Boothbay or Boothbay Harbor! A frosty night is likely in parts of the peninsula such as Edgecomb, but a killing frost/freeze seems unlikely.

10/09/2025

“NOR’EASTER” UPDATE (10/09/25):

Significant change in both GFS and ECMWF model forecasts for the next few days, with the nor’easter not getting here.

It does look like Monday will be wet and a bit windy, but not as much so as it looked yesterday at this time. A low is expected to form just off of the Virginia coast on Sunday. It is expected to intensify but move onshore over the Delmarva peninsula Monday rather than moving up the coast.

Still, we should get some rain from this one, but not a lot, perhaps ¼ inch up to possibly ¾ inch. It does look like showers are likely through Thursday but with little additional accumulation.

At the same time as the low reaches its maximum intensity (Monday) there will be a high pressure system north of Maine. This combination will mean some stronger, gustier easterly winds for us than we have been seeing lately. No serious threat but winds of 15-20 mph are possible with gusts up to 35 mph.

10/08/2025

THE MIDWEEK UPDATE (10/08/25):

Well, we did get some more rain this morning. Looking at the weather radar it looks like we have gotten about all that we are going to get from this passing cold front. I was hoping that I would be proven wrong about how much we would get, and I was wrong but not by as much as I had hoped. As of noon, the Southport (Pig Cove) weather station had recorded 0.84 inches and the Boothbay weather station had recorded 0.75 inches which was the upper limit of my expectation as of yesterday.

I expect to provide another update within a day or two as we could see some pretty strong and gusty winds in addition to rain from a nor’easter within a few days or ten. There are a few more screenshots than normal today because of the uncertainty associated with what may be a fairly significant storm.

REMINDER: The seasonal water shutdown is scheduled for October 16, a week from tomorrow.

After today, it will be feeling more like fall. Over the next week or ten days, the coming weekend is likely to provide the only days with daytime highs around 60° as the low or mid 50s are expected to be the rule. Overnight lows are expected to be mainly in the 40s, but frost is likely in the northern portions early Friday morning as the air temperature drops to the mid 30s.

The rest of this week is expected to be dry. While I saw mention of a nor’easter moving up the coast this weekend, my research indicates that the low is unlikely to move north of Virginia before heading east and out to sea. North Carolina and Virginia may get some wind and rain from it, but it doesn’t look like it will get up our way. There is some more rain in our future; however, it isn’t clear when. The NOAA GFS model is indicating rain beginning Sunday evening and continuing through Tuesday. (It looks to me that the GFS model is expecting that nor’easter to continue up the coast.) The ECMWF model is indicating rain arriving next Wednesday night and continuing off and on through Saturday. (This storm appears to be a “spin-off” of the one GFS has hitting us. It forms just south of Nova Scotia midweek and loops into the Gulf of Maine Friday.) Both models are indicating a total accumulation of about 1.5 inches through Sunday October 18.

Winds today are expected to be in the 10-15 mph range with gusts around 30 mph possible through Friday. The weekend is likely to be a little less windy, but the beginning of next week is likely to see the winds increasing again. Either Monday or Friday may see some strong and gusty winds from a nor’easter as discussed above!

MARINE FORECAST: There is a Small Craft Advisory currently in effect for our area due to expire at 5PM tomorrow. Today’s 15 kt winds and seas of 3-4 feet are expected to diminish to 1 foot seas by Friday.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC: We now have Tropical Storm “Jerry” moving westward in the tropics. Jerry is likely to become Hurricane Jerry by the weekend. Early indications are that it will not impact the US mainland and will track east of Bermuda.

SPACE WEATHER: Nothing of particular note today.

10/07/2025

In my Sunday look ahead for the week I mentioned the possibility of frost early Friday morning (Thursday night). The NWS seems to agree with their latest "Hazardous Weather Outlook." I certainly don't expect a hard freeze anywhere on the peninsula, but I do expect it to be "frosty" in low spots, especially in the northern portions. I'll have another, closer look tomorrow in my midweek update.