NorCast Weather

06/20/2025

This is an opinionated post comments, please...

06/20/2025

🥵 The season's first significant and potentially dangerous heat wave begins in earnest across the central Plains on Friday before intensifying and expanding eastward through the weekend. For more information on all things heat, visit heat.gov.

06/19/2025

A Rare Atlantic Niña has Emerged and will impact Hurricane activity, with a Reversal Forecast for Season Peak and with Winter hints

A rare Atlantic Niña event has developed in the tropics and is expected to impact hurricane activity in the coming weeks. But long-range predictions show that this anomaly will rapidly reverse into a warm Atlantic Niño event, which increases Hurricane activity and landfall potential for the United States and can indicate certain Winter patterns ahead.

For more on this click here-

A rare Atlantic Nina event has emerged, and will impact the United States Hurricane season, with a potential reach into Winter 2025/2026

06/19/2025

6/19 -Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms appear likely today across much of the Mid-Atlantic region, and also parts of the Carolinas and New England. The severe risk should peak this afternoon and evening, before convection moves offshore or weakens. Scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds will likely be the primary risk with these thunderstorms, but isolated hail and perhaps a tornado or two may also occur.

06/19/2025

Here are the latest Key Messages for the upcoming heat wave for the Plains to the East Coast. Numerous daily record highs and warm lows are anticipated Sunday into early next week. This level of heat can be dangerous to anyone without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration, especially those engaging in lengthy outdoor activities.

06/18/2025

6/18-Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected later today from parts the southern Plains northeastward into the southern Great Lakes. The severe threat should peak during the afternoon and evening. Scattered severe/damaging winds, isolated large hail, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. The greatest concentration of damaging winds should occur from portions of southern Missouri to Lower Michigan.

06/17/2025

An upper level ridge will bring above normal temps across the Central Plains by Friday and will move over the Mid-Atlantic states and Great Lakes by Sunday. Take proper precaution and stay hydrated to prevent the risk for any heat related illnesses!

06/17/2025

Numerous to widespread damaging winds are expected with severe storms today (6/17), with the greatest threat for 70-100 mph gusts across parts of Kansas. Scattered large to very large hail (some 2+ inches) is also likely, and a few tornadoes are possible.

06/17/2025

Incredible stovepipe tornado yesterday at Dickens, NE. This is one of the more photogenic tornadoes I've ever seen.

📷 Laura Gaynor

06/16/2025

TODAY IN THE TROPICS there are couple Westward moving tropical waves, but we are not following them for development. In fact, development not expected in the Atlantic Basin in the next 7 days.

TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 02N to
16N with axis near 39W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave at this time.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 02N to
15N with axis near 50W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is E of the wave axis from 09N to 13N between 44W and 49W.

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean S of 19N with axis near 80W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is ahead of the wave axis over the Nicaragua, Costa Rica and western Panama offshore waters.

06/16/2025

6/16 -Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast today across parts of the northern/central Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Midwest. The main timeframe for severe weather occurrence will be this afternoon and evening. Severe/damaging winds will be possible with any thunderstorm clusters that can form and become organized, while scattered large hail and perhaps a few tornadoes may occur with supercells. Isolated very large hail (2+ inches) also appears possible.

06/15/2025

Wow! Check out this cumulonimbus cloud near Huntsville, Alabama

Cumulonimbus clouds form through vigorous convection of warm, moist, and unstable air. This process often begins with smaller cumulus clouds that develop from surface heating, rising, and cooling of moist air. If conditions are right, these clouds can grow dramatically, reaching very high altitudes and becoming cumulonimbus clouds.

Here's a more detailed explanation:

1. Convection:

Warm, moist air near the surface rises due to solar heating.

2. Cooling and Condensation:

As the air rises, it cools and the water v***r within it condenses, forming clouds.

3. Growth and Unstable Conditions:

If the air is unstable, meaning the rising air continues to cool more rapidly than the surrounding air, the cloud can grow rapidly vertically.

4. Formation of Cumulonimbus:

Under the right conditions, these clouds can develop into large, towering cumulonimbus clouds, which can produce heavy precipitation and thunderstorms.

5. Lifting Mechanisms:

Cumulonimbus clouds can also form through orographic lifting (rising air over mountains) or when a cold front pushes warm air upward.

6. Mature and Dissipation Stages:

Cumulonimbus clouds typically go through three stages: developing, mature (where they may become a supercell), and dissipation.

📸Whitney Lozano in Owens Cross Roads.