01/07/2026
PATTERN EVOLUTION
I feel like we do this same song and dance EVERY. SINGLE. JANUARY. "Kick the can down the road". It happens all the time. But I *DO* see things shifting around quite a bit as we head into mid-month.
Guidance has been trying to build the "perfect" pattern for quite a while, but the pain point has been what's going on in the Pacific. When you build a trof (yes, that's the correct spelling for shorthand and I know I'm wasting my time by writing this all out instead of just spelling it the way most people know...but this is who I am and I'm not changing) along the west coast, the lower 48 gets flooded with mild pacific air.
We need a ridge (lift in the jet) to build in the west...and THEN the cold can flow.
The pattern we've got in place is garbage for snow. As we head into the next 10-14 days though? Much, much better. Trof sets up in the east, we still have some blocking over Greenland and the EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation) goes negative.
At any rate, regardless of when this happens, we WILL see another plowable snow. I will absolutely guarantee that. We had one on December 14 away from the shore, I think there's one or maybe two more in the cards. When? No clue. But weakening La Nina has me very encouraged as we go into the heart of Winter.
1.7 11AM
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