NorCast Weather

06/19/2026

Flash flooding will continue to be a hazard across the Gulf Coast today. Additional storms today may bring a couple of inches of rainfall over areas with saturated soils and lowered flash flood guidance. Turn around, don't drown.

06/18/2026

Today's severe weather outlook: Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from Kentucky and the central Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic, with primarily damaging wind gusts or marginal hail. Scattered severe storms are possible from upstate New York into New England, with damaging wind gusts and tornado potential. A few tornadoes may also occur over parts of the middle Gulf Coast states, and scattered storms may produce gusty winds or marginal hail from Oklahoma into western North Texas.

06/17/2026

06/17/2026

Tropical Storm Arthur Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012026
1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026
..TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DEVELOPS NEAR THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST.....LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 95.8W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ENE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
ABOUT 190 MI...300 KM WSW OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended westward to High Island, Texas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* High Island, Texas to Morgan City, Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Sargent, Texas to High Island, Texas


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Arthur was located near latitude 28.6 North, longitude 95.8 West. Arthur is moving toward the northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and an increase in forward speed is expected today. On the forecast track, the low pressure area should move northeastward along the Texas coast today and then move inland over southwestern Louisiana by tonight.

Surface observations and data from the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before the center moves over land. Weakening is anticipated
once the low moves inland, and it could dissipate by tonight or early Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. NOAA buoy 42035 east of Galveston recently reported
a sustained wind of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a gust of 43 mph (69 km/h). The Scholes International Airport (KGLS) in Galveston recently
reported a wind gust of 48 mph (78 km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).

06/16/2026

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012026
1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026
..VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED FROM POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE....


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 98.0W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SW OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SW OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the northwestern Gulf Coast from Sargent, Texas to Morgan City, Louisiana.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Sargent to Morgan City

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 27.0 North, longitude 98.0 West. The system is moving toward the northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion
with an increase in forward speed is anticipated over the next couple of days. The disturbance should move offshore the Texas coast tonight or early Wednesday, move roughly parallel to the upper Texas coast later on Wednesday and move back inland in extreme eastern Texas or southwestern Louisiana late Wednesday or early
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is forecast to gradually strengthen and could become a tropical storm early on Wednesday. Weakening is anticipated on Thursday after the system moves back on land.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

06/15/2026

Tropical Weather Outlook

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Northwestern Gulf of America:
A trough of low pressure located over northeastern Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development is not expected during the next day or so while the trough remains inland. However, the system could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf of America late Tuesday or Wednesday, and environmental conditions there are marginally conducive for the
formation of a short-lived tropical storm on Wednesday into Thursday.

Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, interests across southern and eastern Texas and portions of Louisiana and Mississippi should prepare for periods of intense rainfall over the next several days, which could produce widespread, life-threatening flash, urban, and river flooding. Gusty winds and coastal flooding are also possible along portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast, and Tropical Storm
Watches or Warnings could be required on Tuesday. Additional information on this system can be found in the products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office or NHC Key Messages.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Espanol:https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOSAT+shtml/151732_MIATWOSAT.shtml

06/14/2026

Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts are expected across the Mid-Atlantic vicinity this afternoon and evening. Excessive rainfall from heavy thunderstorms may produce areas of flash flooding from southern New Mexico into the western Gulf Coast today.

06/13/2026

A Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in effect for Saturday across eastern Kansas to central Missouri. A couple of rounds of storms capable of producing torrential rainfall are likely ahead of a system moving into the area. Saturated soils will also enhance the flood risk.

06/12/2026

If going out this weekend to celebrate festivities, an ongoing heat wave will bring widespread Major HeatRisk from Texas all the way to the Mid-Atlantic as high temperatures soar into the middle and upper 90s. Stay hydrated and take cooling breaks.

06/12/2026

The damaging wind swath from Wednesday, June 10 has been preliminarily confirmed as a derecho.

The wind swath had a track length over 400 miles with a footprint just under 100,000 square miles. The strongest known gust was measured at over 94 mph.