NorCast Weather

09/30/2025

09/30/2025

The coastal forecast for the East Coast will call for windy conditions and unsettled seas as a tight pressure gradient develops between high pressure over the NE and tropical low pressures in the Atlantic. Rain showers will also be possible along a coastal front.

💧 Heavy rain chances will focus over the Northwest and Southeast this week. The Northwest will see periods of rain as a series of frontal systems move onshore, and the Southeast will see persistent rain chances through mid-week thanks to tropical moisture associated with Imelda.

09/29/2025

8:00pm advisory for Imelda...

Tropical Storm Imelda Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
..IMELDA FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW MORNING...
..TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE ABACOS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 77.3W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM N OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM E OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Extreme Northwestern Bahamas, including Great Abaco, Grand Bahama
Island and the surrounding keys.



DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Imelda was located near latitude 28.1 North, longitude 77.3 West. Imelda is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a general northward motion is expected to continue tonight. On Tuesday, Imelda is expected to turn sharply to the east-northeast and accelerate. On the forecast track, the center of the system should move away from the northwestern Bahamas later this evening and then turn east-northeastward, moving away from the southeastern U.S. but approaching the island of Bermuda on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast over the next few days, and Imelda is forecast to become a hurricane on Tuesday morning.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)from the center. A combination of Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data and private weather station data indicate that tropical-storm conditions are still occurring on Great Abaco and the adjacent islands. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 985 mb (29.09 inches).

09/29/2025

That’s not snow! That’s hail covering I-40 this afternoon in Laguna, NM. From Rae Reilly.
(Posted 9/28/25)

09/28/2025

Hurricane Humberto, Cat 4 (at the time taken), from the ISS, Sept 27, 1512 GMT. Nikon Z9 | 24/50-500mm.

NASA Astronaut Jonny Kim

09/28/2025

8 PM Tropics: No change as Tropical Storm Imelda moves northward across the Bahamas. Center of the storm is currently south of Nassau.

Tropical Storm Imelda Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
..IMELDA CONTINUES NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 77.1W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SE OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador
* Portions of the northwestern Bahamas, including Eleuthera, New
Providence, the Abacos, Berry Islands, Andros island, and Grand
Bahama Island

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Imelda was located near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 77.1 West. Imelda is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a faster northward motion is expected tonight continuing through Monday. On Tuesday, Imelda is expected to turn sharply to the east-northeast. On the forecast track, the center of the system is expected to move across the central and northwestern Bahamas tonight and Monday and then turn east-northeastward, moving away from the southeastern U.S. by the middle part of this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Imelda is forecast to become a hurricane by late Monday or Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 998 mb (29.47 inches).

09/27/2025

11:00PM advisory for TD #9 (Future Imelda) (no change in strength and still moving slowly towards the Central Bahamas).

Tropical Depression Nine Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
..DEPRESSION MEANDERING TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
..HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF EASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT DAY...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 76.7W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM NW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SW OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador
* Portions of the northwestern Bahamas, including Eleuthera, New
Providence, the Abacos, Berry Islands, Andros island, and Grand
Bahama Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of Florida from the Palm Beach/Martin County Line to
the Flagler/Volusia County Line

Interests elsewhere in the Bahamas and along the southeast coast of the United States from Florida to North Carolina should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings could be required on Sunday.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was located by NOAA reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 76.7 West. The depression has been meandering with a very slow motion toward the northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A faster motion to the north-northwestward motion is expected to begin on Sunday and continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the system is expected to move across the central and northwestern Bahamas on Sunday and Sunday night and approach the southeast U.S. coast early next week.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm overnight or early Sunday and a hurricane by late Monday or Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure measured by aircraft
dropsonde data is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

09/27/2025

Meteorologist Will Rowe from WACH TV in Columbia SC provides an explanation as to what is happening with TD #9

09/27/2025

Here is Bryan Norcross with a full explanation as to what may happen with TD 9 and Hurricane Humberto. Please watch...

09/27/2025

The Atlantic is producing straight up MONSTERS this season. Humberto is a strong Cat 4 with more intensification possible...I could see this getting to Cat 5 later today or tomorrow before it starts to step down.

Here's the thing....Humberto is stronger than expected at this point...which means he could very well "tug" on Imelda and help guide that storm out to sea...still looking at impact to the Carolinas with heavy rain and wind, but the worst case scenario could be avoided because of Humberto and the Fujiwhara effect.

These are trends that we need to watch closely today and tomorrow.

9.27 9:30AM